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September VB - DV14 Last Chapter

Guys - don't give up hope! Let wait till the end of the fiscal year. DV2014 is unique. KCC seems to be unpredictable. I personally do not believe that current cut-offs will be the final ones untill I will see the September VB.

Furthermore there is something in my calculation that doesn't fit the current cut-offs and I would like to double-check that.
Can somebody provide me with the number of applicants from different regions in DV2014 and DV2015? Do we have such data?
(we have a number of selectees, but what about number of applicants?)
 
szym said:
Guys - don't give up hope! Let wait till the end of the fiscal year. DV2014 is unique. KCC seems to be unpredictable. I personally do not believe that current cut-offs will be the final ones untill I will see the September VB.

Furthermore there is something in my calculation that doesn't fit the current cut-offs and I would like to double-check that.
Can somebody provide me with the number of applicants from different regions in DV2014 and DV2015? Do we have such data?
(we have a number of selectees, but what about number of applicants?)
Click to expand...

Data here. http://travel.state.gov/content/vis...y-visa/diversity-visa-program-statistics.html But I think only total entries, not by country, are so far available for 14 and 15.
 
SusieQQQ said:
Data here. http://travel.state.gov/content/vis...y-visa/diversity-visa-program-statistics.html But I think only total entries, not by country, are so far available for 14 and 15.
Click to expand...

Thanks SussieQQQ. We know the total entries (for example 9,374,191 qualified entries for DV2014) but I would need to know how many entries where there per each region.
Sloner gave us a proof (video link) that there is a regional quota (thanks Sloner for this link). From the same video we know that regional quota depends on two main factors:
1. number of total entries in DV from that region
2. number of all immigration visas issued in the last 5 years for that region

I do not have complete figures, but it looks like EU should take around 40% of all DV visas (40% x 50.000=20.000), and I think that current cut-off for EU is not enough to take 20.000 visas. We will check it in CEAC data later on, but it looks like EU will take only 17.000-18.000 visas.

One thing is for sure - we will know the regional quota for EU once DV2014 will end. In all previous DV (up to 2005), EU was current so we didn't reach the regional quota. Now we will have first fiscal year that is simillar to those DVs that didn't end up in current.
BTW: Take a look at this chart: http://forums.immigration.com/attachments/2014-06-27_1441-png.56/ - this is how the DV was divided in 2004. EU had 39,7% of DV visas. 2004 was long time ago, therefore I would like to re-check how DV2014 is simillar to DV2004, specialy in the number of entries.
 
Hey Forum mates

Here is something you guys should watch. Just know how lucky you are to be where you are. Win or loose.

 
szym said:
Thanks SussieQQQ. We know the total entries (for example 9,374,191 qualified entries for DV2014) but I would need to know how many entries where there per each region.
Sloner gave us a proof (video link) that there is a regional quota (thanks Sloner for this link). From the same video we know that regional quota depends on two main factors:
1. number of total entries in DV from that region
2. number of all immigration visas issued in the last 5 years for that region

I do not have complete figures, but it looks like EU should take around 40% of all DV visas (40% x 50.000=20.000), and I think that current cut-off for EU is not enough to take 20.000 visas. We will check it in CEAC data later on, but it looks like EU will take only 17.000-18.000 visas.

One thing is for sure - we will know the regional quota for EU once DV2014 will end. In all previous DV (up to 2005), EU was current so we didn't reach the regional quota. Now we will have first fiscal year that is simillar to those DVs that didn't end up in current.
BTW: Take a look at this chart: http://forums.immigration.com/attachments/2014-06-27_1441-png.56/ - this is how the DV was divided in 2004. EU had 39,7% of DV visas. 2004 was long time ago, therefore I would like to re-check how DV2014 is simillar to DV2004, specialy in the number of entries.
Click to expand...

We know there are regional quotas and the factors used - it's been linked to a few times here, it is explained in part of the 9FAM notes. I'll see if I can find it again and if so will post the link. I don't remember the quota being based on entries for DV though (other than having to be capped for high entry countries), just on immigration stats to the US.

Edit to add: p2 http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/87838.pdf
It is population of the regions, not entries to the DV program, that is the other factor apart from immigration stats that determines the quota. Note unused quotas are distributed among remaining regions.
 
szym said:
Guys - don't give up hope! Let wait till the end of the fiscal year. DV2014 is unique. KCC seems to be unpredictable. I personally do not believe that current cut-offs will be the final ones untill I will see the September VB.

Furthermore there is something in my calculation that doesn't fit the current cut-offs and I would like to double-check that.
Can somebody provide me with the number of applicants from different regions in DV2014 and DV2015? Do we have such data?
(we have a number of selectees, but what about number of applicants?)
Click to expand...
Pretty sure, no changes will be made, unfortunately.
 
melnewishy said:
do you think it will change anything?
Click to expand...
since they already wrote the total of selectees is greater than available visas.. it won't change anything.. if you're selectees, it doesn't guarantee you to receive a visa.. but what i wanna say is.. what a genius idea to pick 40% more selectees this year with no reason. i doubt even a elementary student would do that. it's time to move on guys.. we can get the visas with other ways beside hoping for this lottery (fake hope).
 
Unlacky candidate with an AF CN above 81100 asking USA embassy in Kinshasha:

Hi Sir/Madam,

I hope that you are all doing well.

I would kindly like you to advise if you could be able by now to provide me with my
scheduled interview appointment date.

We all saw that the visa bulletin for September shows that 81100 is the last case number which is not understandable for me. And by that please I want to know if I still have chance to be scheduled for interview or if there no more hope for my case for DV2014 fiscal year. Thank you.
Kind regards

KINSHASA Embassy answer:
Dear Mr................,

Thank you for your email.

Please send your inquiry directly to KCC. DV applicants are not scheduled by U.S. Embassy Kinshasa, they
are scheduled by Kentucky Consular Center. The State Department visa bulletin for September 2014 states
that DV applicants will be scheduled up to the rank number of 81.100 for the African zone. Since your rank
number is above, you are not currently scheduled for September 2014. You may check again the visa bulletin
beginning of August 2014 to find out if there is any change.

We hope this information proves helpful to you.


U.S. Embassy
Consular Section
Immigrant Visa Unit
Kinshasa, DRC
 
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dadile said:
PETITION FOR DV SELECTEES BIG CASE NUMBERS INTERVIEW SCHEDULE
please all sign in this page
http://www.gopetition.com/petitions...tees-big-case-numbers-interview-schedule.html
Click to expand...


I know that people are upset but this is a pointless excercise. It clearly states that being selected is not equal to getting a visa. Rules of DV lottery are clearly defined and they played by those rules, so there's really nothing we can do about it, except hoping for September cutoffs to improve.

And saying "will probably not have an interview and it's not fair." is not a valid argument. They are following the rules of the game and there will be losers.

Life is unfortunately horribly unfair and I do not think this petition will change anything. As Simon said, they would have to change the law and the next change to emigration law will terminate the lottery completely - that is I guess unfair too but will eventually happen.
 
franko said:
I know that people are upset but this is a pointless excercise. It clearly states that being selected is not equal to getting a visa. Rules of DV lottery are clearly defined and they played by those rules, so there's really nothing we can do about it, except hoping for September cutoffs to improve.

And saying "will probably not have an interview and it's not fair." is not a valid argument. They are following the rules of the game and there will be losers.

Life is unfortunately horribly unfair and I do not think this petition will change anything. As Simon said, they would have to change the law and the next change to emigration law will terminate the lottery completely - that is I guess unfair too but will eventually happen.
Click to expand...

Totally agreed. The only thing we can do is to wait for improve Sept cut off. If it doesn't turn up the way we wanted then execute plan B.
 
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