Will there be another round of retrogression

[abhathakur]

I learnt on immigration-law.com that DOL has set September 2007 as the end date for taking a decision on all the pending labor certification applications. Given that there are 360,000 of them, even if half of them get approved and clear the I-140 stage, considering they are older cases, they will be qualified to file for the I-485 app, there is bound to be an impact on the PD Visa date movement.

Now I understand that USCIS follows the FIFO process and security check delays can further slow down the processing but DOS projects numbers based on PD of cases that passed the I-140 stage (which is really fast these days), so the warning that the DOS has been putting out in its Visa Bulletins might come true...little or no movement of PD or who knows a further retrogression again!!!

 

[newbies]

I learnt on immigration-law.com that DOL has set September 2007 as the end date for taking a decision on all the pending labor certification applications. Given that there are 360,000 of them, even if half of them get approved and clear the I-140 stage, considering they are older cases, they will be qualified to file for the I-485 app, there is bound to be an impact on the PD Visa date movement.

Now I understand that USCIS follows the FIFO process and security check delays can further slow down the processing but DOS projects numbers based on PD of cases that passed the I-140 stage (which is really fast these days), so the warning that the DOS has been putting out in its Visa Bulletins might come true...little or no movement of PD or who knows a further retrogression again!!!

It is possible like last time they did to get more breath. Remember last push back is just based on prediction on 245i cases. If those cases are approved and real, they will do that again (100% chance).

 

[black_logs]

Once these cases are approved, there'll be a backlog at USCIS for I-140. Then they'll open backlog centers for USCIS. There's a long way to go......

 

[indio0617]

Once these cases are approved, there'll be a backlog at USCIS for I-140. Then they'll open backlog centers for USCIS. There's a long way to go......

Oh yeah..... I am sure we will see backlog centers mushrooming all over soon. Backlog centers for I-140, I-485 etc....

That appears to be their grand plan !

 

[kewl]

Chain of backlog center - labor->I-140->I-485->labor->...

 

[akela]

If you look at retrogression history, it is not unheard of for the dates to go back and fourth. Will there be a backlog again, If you look at the facts, only 3 'big' states had back log going as far back as 2001 april - NY, MD, VA. Most other states, already are past mid 2002 at least. Now NY has been traditionally 20% of all application (and that is a huge number). Together with MD and VA I would think these states have had 33% of all LC's. Now as labor from these states start getting approve, you might see dates retrogression dates move back and fourth. Remember if you are from India, the monthly quota comes to about 1700 basic LC per month per category. Are there that many LC from the three states (and other left overs from other states)?? Tough question, I guess even PBEC or USCIS does not know answer to that question. We can simulate, predict....but it is going to be one rollar coster ride when PBEC (if it ever) wakes up and starts working between the tea breaks!!

rgds,
akela

 

[can_card]

Very difficult to predict in coming years. So many variables. DOL says it will clear by sep 2007. We do not know whether they approve the LCs progressivly over 18 months. If they do progressive approvals based on FIFO, then DOS can progressily moniter the pattern of demand and set/move the cutoff dates accordingly. If they do bulk approvals of pending LCs, DOS can not preditct the demand (they never know the composition of PDs in bulk LCs). They will take very conservative approch, in establishing the cutoff dates. Then cutoff dates will roll back. However, one thing is sure that the retrogression will never disappear till FY 2008, based on pending 360,000 LCs with BEC and their commitments to clear by sep 2007. After 2008, PERM cases will take up the place for estabilishing the cutoff dates. So, the retrogression here to stay, unless they increase drastically the visa numbers.

 

[GC_Govinda]

If you look at retrogression history, it is not unheard of for the dates to go back and fourth. Will there be a backlog again, If you look at the facts, only 3 'big' states had back log going as far back as 2001 april - NY, MD, VA. Most other states, already are past mid 2002 at least. Now NY has been traditionally 20% of all application (and that is a huge number). Together with MD and VA I would think these states have had 33% of all LC's. Now as labor from these states start getting approve, you might see dates retrogression dates move back and fourth. Remember if you are from India, the monthly quota comes to about 1700 basic LC per month per category. Are there that many LC from the three states (and other left overs from other states)?? Tough question, I guess even PBEC or USCIS does not know answer to that question. We can simulate, predict....but it is going to be one rollar coster ride when PBEC (if it ever) wakes up and starts working between the tea breaks!!

rgds,
akela

Akela,
You and GCStrat have been very good in guestimating the numbers - using
mathematical distributions and what not. While is is possible to solve equations with known number of variables, it not the case with USCIS where the neither the variables nor the constants are not known
Predicting when the priority dates will be "current" is not possible unless some proimmigration bill is passed and becomes a law. We can start by guessing
when the PDs can come to EB1/2/3 in the coming months - whether they will cross the magic month of April 2001 - for EB3.

 

[USCIS_GC_APPRO]

It's USCIS. So you can't Predict nothing.

In my past post I do predicted VB dates. Except that I can't predict nothing from USCIS and FBI( FBI NAME CHECK).

 

[Daloon]

Possibily.

 

[nTan]

Now I understand that USCIS follows the FIFO process

FIFO yes they do ... but only till the end of there working year ... the new year starts in OCT and then they reorder the list ... so guys from backlog center and substitution labor guys who have older PD become first in the list ... After the reorder of application at the begining of the year, they follows FIFO....

So expect another retrogression this OCT ... this time it might be more massive than last time for EB-3 and smaller tsunami for EB-2 guys from population heavy countries.

All of the above may change if USCIS makes a massive change in there immigration procedure ........ A change is also highly possible ... lets keep our fingures crossed.

 

[msh626]

Why even bother to predict what USCIS is going to do? Does even the USCIS know? I am not sure.