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Possible early announcement of September VB numbers

Discussion in 'Lottery Visas - DV' started by Britsimon, Aug 5, 2017.

  1. Britsimon

    Britsimon Super Moderator

    1GH4urPocket and Whypie like this.
  2. 1GH4urPocket

    1GH4urPocket New Member

    Hi brit,
    i guess CN 2018AF17xx9 ,submitted ds260 12June wont be scheduled for interview in october? Thanks.
  3. FromEverest2018

    FromEverest2018 New Member

    Hi guys
    i'm sorry if this has already been discussed, but i couldnt find so asking here.

    This is about the recent article by Brit Simon "Possible early notice of first DV2018 Visa bulletin"
    (sorry this my first post, so not allowed to post link)

    How much accuracy is there behind this prediction? I guess Brit wouldnt post in his blog until he has full confidence on the news :)
    I was hoping my 2NL would come in first or second vb. but this will change everything.

    ~~ Post moved from the AOS Thread ~~​
    Last edited by a moderator: Aug 6, 2017
  4. FromEverest2018

    FromEverest2018 New Member

    Hi guys. Any thoughts on this? This is stressing me so much as i was planning as per previous trend :(
  5. SusieQQQ

    SusieQQQ Well-Known Member

    You can't judge a trend on one month ....
  6. FromEverest2018

    FromEverest2018 New Member

    I mean trend of past years.

    What Brit has predicted is drastically different.
    Like for Nepal it used to be around 2000 in first vb. he predicted 750 this time.

    Kind regards,
  7. Britsimon

    Britsimon Super Moderator

    These are not predictions. I am reasonably confident (not 100%) that these numbers are real. The linked article discusses why these numbers are different to the last few years.

    As for freaking out because you are in month 2 or 3 - SO WHAT???? This year will last 12 months - just like every other year.
  8. SusieQQQ

    SusieQQQ Well-Known Member

    Did you read his comments on the blog after the numbers?

    And one month still isn't a trend. I don't know how many past years you looked at, but there has been wild variation in some of the regions for first (and second and third) month numbers...
    Last edited: Aug 6, 2017
  9. Britsimon

    Britsimon Super Moderator

    Exactly. I explained Nepal in detail.
  10. 1GH4urPocket

    1GH4urPocket New Member

  11. LucyTheNerd

    LucyTheNerd New Member

    This is exciting! DV2018 is kicking into gear. Starting to feel more real!

    Thanks for the info Simon. ☺
    MonFD and 1GH4urPocket like this.
  12. Dan44

    Dan44 New Member

    Hi I apologize in advance if this is a dumb question but I'm a little confused upon reading the aforementioned blog post so here goes:

    In the prediction for October this year I see OC sitting lower than usual (185 as opposed to 400, 350 etc previous years) I understand the theory of a possible lack of ds260 backlogs being reason for this my questions now being:

    1. In turn is there less chance of OC and similar regions going current (I was hoping for a June/July interview (oc11xx) based on previous trends) I read the comment about final cut numbers remaining the same but how could this be if case numbers called for interview in the VB are lower than usual?

    2. Have I jeopardized my odds of a June/July interview further by amending my ds260 last month after having initially submitted it at the start of may?

    I appreciate any clarification on this sorry again if this has all been answered to some extent. Thanks again to britsimon for posting this in the first place and to all the other moderators who deal daily with people like myself freaking out over case numbers, the RAISE act etc etc etc. without this forum I'd have lost my mind by now.
  13. Britsimon

    Britsimon Super Moderator

    1. Imagine filling a 10 gallon bucket. You can fill it fast, or you can fill it slow. Either way - it only holds 10 gallons. What KCC try and do is make the process last around 10 months - 1 gallon a month you could say. Spreading the interviews out over the year means the most efficient use of the resources at the embassies, and also allows for people that submit their DS260 late - but have a lowish number. So - KCC will know that they need about 90 to 100 interviews per month in OC region. That number will yield enough approvals to use the OC quota. So - if 25% of cases have their DS260s process, you need a VB number of about 400 in month 1. If 50% of the first 200 cases have finished processing though - you only need 180/190 case numbers. Regardless of the pace, the bucket isn't any bigger or smaller. They have about 800 visas in OC (derivatives included). 100 interviews per month is MORE than enough to get there. As for your number - you have no reason to worry.

    2. No.
  14. FromEverest2018

    FromEverest2018 New Member

    Thanks Brit.
    I appreciate your reply.
    Yes not a big deal,It's just that i was making plans accordingly (quitting job, rescheduling semester etc.).
    No problem.

    thank you :)
  15. SusieQQQ

    SusieQQQ Well-Known Member

    You should never make any irreversible changes to anything until you actually have a visa in your returned passport. This is also highlighted in the instructions for selectees: "You should not make permanent financial commitments, such as selling your house, car or property, resigning from your job or making non-refundable flight or other travel arrangements until you have received your immigrant visa."
  16. FromEverest2018

    FromEverest2018 New Member

    Some people from Nepal have called KCC and found out the news is correct. :)
  17. Britsimon

    Britsimon Super Moderator

    Thanks for letting us know. Obviously these numbers are "owned" by KCC. Other aspects of the VB are owned by different departments. So - the official VB will only be published once everyone is ready - but I would not be surprised to see that published in the next day or two. Until then - these numbers could "possibly" vary - but most likely not.
  18. MonFD

    MonFD Member

    I am not sure I get u guys' excitement over the scheduling of October interviews. Of course business is as usual until there is a change in the law. Even if the interviews are scheduled this doesn't mean that they will honor them if the RAISE bill is passed before Oct 1. What's with the hype? I think we need to be patient until we get rid of this bill.
  19. Britsimon

    Britsimon Super Moderator

    They aren't even working on the Act. If if it had support (which it hasn't) it would be tough to get this through in time. It's not going to happen before the end of the fiscal year. Really.
    Logan_z and FromEverest2018 like this.
  20. SusieQQQ

    SusieQQQ Well-Known Member

    Have you bothered reading anything recent in the RAISE thread or do you just do drive-by posts?
    FromEverest2018 likes this.

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