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October 2017 Visa Bulletin

Discussion in 'Lottery Visas - DV' started by Xarthisius, Sep 12, 2017.

  1. Xarthisius

    Xarthisius Active Member

    AFRICA: 8,600
    Egypt: 4,400
    Ethiopia: 4,700

    ASIA: 1,750
    Iran: 1,450
    Nepal: 1,400

    EUROPE: 4,500


    OCEANIA: 315

    and the CARIBBEAN: 325
  2. Britsimon

    Britsimon Super Moderator

  3. Smallland

    Smallland Member

    Exciting! Looks like it's my turn in december. :) EU7XXX
  4. Pierre82

    Pierre82 Well-Known Member

    Good luck on your interview :)
    Smallland likes this.
  5. anais

    anais New Member

    Hey I am EU7xxx as well, you think we can have our chance for December ?
  6. Xarthisius

    Xarthisius Active Member

    There's no way of knowing that before 2nd week of October. It may as well be less than 7000 in December. Assume the worst and be pleasantly surprised, rather than other way around.
    SusieQQQ likes this.
  7. anais

    anais New Member

    Yes that is what I am doing. I thought I will get an interview in October at the beginning, but I just "wait and see ". I am hoping an interview in January if it goes up by 2000 every months
  8. Smallland

    Smallland Member

    It doesn't really matter for me if it's in December or January but I have a feeling that December is the month. Very un scientific :confused:;)
  9. Prismak

    Prismak New Member

    My CN is EU20XXX .... (towards 21000)

    I was expecting an interview on March/April but maybe I will wait a bit more?
  10. just_a_tech

    just_a_tech New Member

    My CN is EU22xxx (early 22k)

    Same here, was expecting March/April but with current progression I feel like it will be during summer. Considering doing CP especially after the stuff happened in DV2017 for AOS people. So frustrating :(
  11. Britsimon

    Britsimon Super Moderator

    Once The U2 countries (Uzbekistan and Ukraine) are done the VB progression for EU will be faster. I don't have the CEAC data for DV2018 obviously, but DV2016 showed U2 countries were limited between 13XXX and 15XXX. The density drop after those two countries is massive - holes increase from 20% to 60%. In other words 1000 case numbers before 13000 yields the same selectees as 2000 after the U2 countries are out.

    One wrinkle in that is that Russia and Turkey have had a HUGE jump in selectees this year. That almost certainly represents agent activity, and could mean that those two countries were also limited during the draw. If true, this will change the density assumptions, and we could see four countries being limited in EU - I just can't tell where in the range that will have happened. So - speculation is somewhat pointless - and "wait and see" is the best answer. Be prepared for anything.
  12. SusieQQQ

    SusieQQQ Well-Known Member

    The increase in Turkey may not be that surprising given the rapidly deteriorating political climate in the year or so leading up to the lottery entry period. You saw the opposite with Poland - entries dropped massively after it joined the EU. Domestic politics etc can have a large impact on entries. Not sure why Russia would have leapt.
  13. Britsimon

    Britsimon Super Moderator

    Yes agreed - that is possibly the motivation, but it still needs an external "organization" to (at least) DOUBLE the entries in one year to the next. Russia and Turkey have both had that doubling in DV2018 versus DV2017. If it were increased fear over the deteriorating political climate, I could imagine an increase, but not doubling.
  14. Xarthisius

    Xarthisius Active Member

    Where do you get the number of entries per country? All I have is the number of selectees in July VB
  15. Britsimon

    Britsimon Super Moderator

    I'm projecting based on selectees. Both countries have double the selectees than last year and are at the capped numbers of U2 countries. That means a doubling of entries. In other countries the "telltale" sign of agents being involved is when the derivative ratio changes dramatically in the country. Because agents often register individuals speculatively and then we have lots of people being disqualified for not including derivatives on their original entries. You can see this spectacularly demonstrated in Ghana selectee counts and derivative rates.
  16. Xarthisius

    Xarthisius Active Member

    In case of Russia, since it's capped, doubling is only a lower limit right? If the number of entries for some unexplained reason would increase tenfold, that would mean a lot of "holes" later on and some hope for high EU# selectees?
  17. Britsimon

    Britsimon Super Moderator

    They are probably both capped. If you look at Ghana (which is certainly capped), you can see that a cap sometimes is hit before the cap number. This is because the cap is two caps at once, one for the selectee number (~4500 this year) and the other for cases (about 3000). So - Turkey could well be capped even though it didn't hit 4500. Or - both Turkey and Russia could just (by coincidence) have had exactly the right number of entries to get to the capped range without being capped.

    But yes - if they are capped, it would mean faster VB progression after the capped countries are exhausted. Without the CEAC extracts, hard to know.
  18. danny keane

    danny keane New Member

    Hi there,

    I'm from Turkey. I can tell you that this much increase of the entries are because of political reasons. There're not any external organizations that can effect this much, but people were organized by theirself in 2-3 well known social web sites and forums (means thousands of members) at the time of entry period.

    As a DV 2018 selectee (EU38XXX) from Turkey, i think i have a low chance to get an interview. Am i right?


    Last edited: Sep 19, 2017
  19. just_a_tech

    just_a_tech New Member

    @Britsimon mind explaining difference in effect to VB progression of countries that are capped vs non-capped? If I get it correct, when capped they would be packed in lower number cases and when not, they would just be randomly distributed in whole region? Please correct me if I am wrong.
    Also, great blog of yours and great analysis, stats! I have gained enormous knowledge and data from there! :D
  20. just_a_tech

    just_a_tech New Member

    @danny keane Yeap turkey could most likely be related to political climate. I am onto Turkish politics and everything related to them, however not sure about Russia. Could be agent related as @Britsimon mentioned or could just be because of the enormous sanctions against Russia. Gas prices and sanctions damaged their economy badly, plus most of the products enjoyed by Russians are imported from Europe which they can't enjoy anymore and are sticked to their local produced stuff. Still two fold on selectee numbers is a big leap. Surely can't tell anything for sure but just a thought!

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