November 2006 Visa Bulletin is out !!!
- Thread starter hudakchullu
- Start date
edmontonca
New Member
hkhr said:
i am out of this game. it is just a date they want to set as they like. and next month pull it back and next month push it forward, whatever.......
gc_tx_2003
Registered Users (C)
the cut off date movement has absolutely nothing to do with the backlog centers.
please read the directions carefully, they have said moving these dates
creates thousands of applications ( meaning these are the ones that are already in the I-485 Q filed earlier, and the visa number for them will be consumed only in the very last stage of the application adjucations ).
If you think about it, they have moved
EB2 india by 6 months,
eb2 china by 4 mo
eb3 row by 2 mo
with these movements they are saying thousands of apps now become eligible
and I am pretty confident most of them are in EB2 india.
what they are primarily saying is the following - We know there are thousands of apps in the I-485 Q, but we still do not know how many of them will actually consume the numbers ( because of how long it takes for I-485 processing in the various centers). If we move it just by one month, then there won't be enough demand ( remember very last stage of adjucation -- may be after the I-485 interview), so we are moving it by 6 months, to see how many of them will make it this month.
it is so sad, that they cannot control the flow precisely in a predictable manner, they are still playing the gate closed / gate open game.
the movement by 6 mo for EB2 india, thou seems to be good initially, the note practically means if I-485 processing is fast it could mean "U" very soon
it really does not address the issues of where the spillovers from EB1 / EB2 ROW go ( to EB2 oversubscribed or EB3 ROW ), if there are any.
please read the directions carefully, they have said moving these dates
creates thousands of applications ( meaning these are the ones that are already in the I-485 Q filed earlier, and the visa number for them will be consumed only in the very last stage of the application adjucations ).
If you think about it, they have moved
EB2 india by 6 months,
eb2 china by 4 mo
eb3 row by 2 mo
with these movements they are saying thousands of apps now become eligible
and I am pretty confident most of them are in EB2 india.
what they are primarily saying is the following - We know there are thousands of apps in the I-485 Q, but we still do not know how many of them will actually consume the numbers ( because of how long it takes for I-485 processing in the various centers). If we move it just by one month, then there won't be enough demand ( remember very last stage of adjucation -- may be after the I-485 interview), so we are moving it by 6 months, to see how many of them will make it this month.
it is so sad, that they cannot control the flow precisely in a predictable manner, they are still playing the gate closed / gate open game.
the movement by 6 mo for EB2 india, thou seems to be good initially, the note practically means if I-485 processing is fast it could mean "U" very soon
it really does not address the issues of where the spillovers from EB1 / EB2 ROW go ( to EB2 oversubscribed or EB3 ROW ), if there are any.
UNAVAILABLE Soon
From now on, visa bulletins will probably bring in MORE RETROGESSION than less. So be prepared to see Unavailability on this.
Actually a good thing as Indians in EB-3, EB-2 know they can look up to be screwed more for the forseeable future (atleast 2007/2008).
Serves us right; never could get a collective act together.
From now on, visa bulletins will probably bring in MORE RETROGESSION than less. So be prepared to see Unavailability on this.
Actually a good thing as Indians in EB-3, EB-2 know they can look up to be screwed more for the forseeable future (atleast 2007/2008).
Serves us right; never could get a collective act together.
gc_tx_2003 said:
Expected Bad News!!!
For anyone following the debate closely, and watching the erratic and mostly laggard behavior of visa bulletins, should not be too surprised by this bulletin.
Whether there is a huge back-pile of 245(i)'s or genuine EB-3 numbers in many many thousands holding up dates for EB-3 India, it is clear that there is no short-cuts for PD progression.
Not to sound conspiratorial, but I'm convinced that besides a possible reality of too many applications from India in various categories, there may be an added reluctance on DOS' part to move things forward quickly. Whether they are bound by law to move things quickly and if there is any authority and audit that is done to ensure that is debatable.
The footnote of ITEM E is an ominous signal that worse things are coming in the near future. It is a typical "CYA" (cover your a**) approach from DOS for future retrogressions and subsequent angst and anguish from the victims of it.
One poster comments that this is well-deserved because we can never "get a collective act together". But there is a collective act in the form of IV and we now know that we are up against a very powerful, non-transparent, and mostly inefficient government agency. I work for the government and I know exactly how it operates on the inside.
Regardless, no matter what games and obstacles the rogues throw at us, with patience and determination, WE WILL PREVAIL. The ones who want the GC and are willing to stick it out, will surely get it. They (the authority) know that it's a game of patience (not always of right and wrong, deserving or undeserving) but of who can stick it out the longest.
For anyone following the debate closely, and watching the erratic and mostly laggard behavior of visa bulletins, should not be too surprised by this bulletin.
Whether there is a huge back-pile of 245(i)'s or genuine EB-3 numbers in many many thousands holding up dates for EB-3 India, it is clear that there is no short-cuts for PD progression.
Not to sound conspiratorial, but I'm convinced that besides a possible reality of too many applications from India in various categories, there may be an added reluctance on DOS' part to move things forward quickly. Whether they are bound by law to move things quickly and if there is any authority and audit that is done to ensure that is debatable.
The footnote of ITEM E is an ominous signal that worse things are coming in the near future. It is a typical "CYA" (cover your a**) approach from DOS for future retrogressions and subsequent angst and anguish from the victims of it.
One poster comments that this is well-deserved because we can never "get a collective act together". But there is a collective act in the form of IV and we now know that we are up against a very powerful, non-transparent, and mostly inefficient government agency. I work for the government and I know exactly how it operates on the inside.
Regardless, no matter what games and obstacles the rogues throw at us, with patience and determination, WE WILL PREVAIL. The ones who want the GC and are willing to stick it out, will surely get it. They (the authority) know that it's a game of patience (not always of right and wrong, deserving or undeserving) but of who can stick it out the longest.
gc_tx_2003
Registered Users (C)
i was wrong on eb2 ch - it is just 2 weeks, NOT 4 mo.
so pretty much, all of the thousands of apps they are taking about that became eligible are all EB2 india.
all that it means is that -- if there are no spillovers -- there are just 2800 visas for the year , and hence will be "U" with the demand they are seeing --
just by moving from jun 2002 to jan 2003.
following were the cutoff advances for EB2
apr 2006 - july 2002
may 2006 - jan 2003 and stayed and became "U"
Now, the processing times of the various centers for 485 are as follows
mar2006 - tsc
june 2005 - vsc
mar 2006 - csc
dec 2005 - nsc
so, atleast in 2 centers they are about to process those cases that would have been filed for 485 when the dates advanced to Jan 2003.
not sure what it means -- may be "U" for EB2 india is right around the corner ?
what is even more interesting is that they advanced Eb2 ch like crazy, and now it is just 2 weeks advancement -- which is scary..
MUCH depends on if there are any excesses in EB1 / EB2 ROW. , and when and how they will be distributed.
so pretty much, all of the thousands of apps they are taking about that became eligible are all EB2 india.
all that it means is that -- if there are no spillovers -- there are just 2800 visas for the year , and hence will be "U" with the demand they are seeing --
just by moving from jun 2002 to jan 2003.
following were the cutoff advances for EB2
apr 2006 - july 2002
may 2006 - jan 2003 and stayed and became "U"
Now, the processing times of the various centers for 485 are as follows
mar2006 - tsc
june 2005 - vsc
mar 2006 - csc
dec 2005 - nsc
so, atleast in 2 centers they are about to process those cases that would have been filed for 485 when the dates advanced to Jan 2003.
not sure what it means -- may be "U" for EB2 india is right around the corner ?
what is even more interesting is that they advanced Eb2 ch like crazy, and now it is just 2 weeks advancement -- which is scary..
MUCH depends on if there are any excesses in EB1 / EB2 ROW. , and when and how they will be distributed.
No point ..
GC_TRAP,
There really is no point in trying to guess the reasons. We need to make the most of the current situation. Lets support pro-immigration bills post November elections and not worry to much about the visa movements at this point. The dates are a reflection of bad policies leading to buildup of huge backlogs, CYA tactics on the part of the DOL, DOS and USCIS, effort to fix the system before it collapses and an attempt to revamp the system through PERM, premimum processing, bi-specilaization of service centers etc. We are kind of caught in a perfect storm and relief will only come when this storm dies down (either over time or a change in the law). We just have to withstand it at this point. As you said, we will prevail in the end ...
regards,
saras
GC_TRAP said:
GC_TRAP,
There really is no point in trying to guess the reasons. We need to make the most of the current situation. Lets support pro-immigration bills post November elections and not worry to much about the visa movements at this point. The dates are a reflection of bad policies leading to buildup of huge backlogs, CYA tactics on the part of the DOL, DOS and USCIS, effort to fix the system before it collapses and an attempt to revamp the system through PERM, premimum processing, bi-specilaization of service centers etc. We are kind of caught in a perfect storm and relief will only come when this storm dies down (either over time or a change in the law). We just have to withstand it at this point. As you said, we will prevail in the end ...
regards,
saras
GCInThisLife
Registered Users (C)
Good analysis gc_tx_2003! Seems logical. Most folks (including me earlier) are unnecessarily making the relatively simple concept complicated.
To put it in simple terms, it is analogous to a waiting queue outside empire state building or liberty bell where weekdays ~ ROW and weekends ~ Retro. Every time the guard lifts the rope, he allows a only certain number visitors in based on the information he gets about number of visitors leaving the building and number already in (on top and/or waiting for elevator). If no more available on top, he will hold the rope down (~unavailable) and not let anyone in until he sees a sign that crowd is clearing. This is basically to control/limit the crowd on top of the building. On weekdays, you can go straight to elevator since the inflow is usually less than or equal to outflow. This example doesn't include an equivalent for 485 denials, but jumping off the building can be considered as denial.
.
So based on the simple information on approx. 485 processing time, number of predicted approvals (or max allowed) and estimated number of new applications for each month advance (may be based on already filed/approved 140s) the cut off dates would be moved so that more applicants can get into 485 processing. If they get more than estimated, the dates move back. If they get less than expected, dates advance rapidly. However, IF their estimates are correct, the cut off date moment should be uniform. For example, I think EB2 dates hovered around Jun 02 to Jan 03 and unavailable in recent months bc's they are getting much more than estimated new 485 filings (may be due to concurrent filings from recent BEC approvals of old PDs or EB3 to EB2 conversions) . This probably the reason why EB1 applicants are getting 485 approvals fast now (as soon as name check is cleared) as their is no queue inside waiting for visa numbers.
To put it in simple terms, it is analogous to a waiting queue outside empire state building or liberty bell where weekdays ~ ROW and weekends ~ Retro. Every time the guard lifts the rope, he allows a only certain number visitors in based on the information he gets about number of visitors leaving the building and number already in (on top and/or waiting for elevator). If no more available on top, he will hold the rope down (~unavailable) and not let anyone in until he sees a sign that crowd is clearing. This is basically to control/limit the crowd on top of the building. On weekdays, you can go straight to elevator since the inflow is usually less than or equal to outflow. This example doesn't include an equivalent for 485 denials, but jumping off the building can be considered as denial.
. So based on the simple information on approx. 485 processing time, number of predicted approvals (or max allowed) and estimated number of new applications for each month advance (may be based on already filed/approved 140s) the cut off dates would be moved so that more applicants can get into 485 processing. If they get more than estimated, the dates move back. If they get less than expected, dates advance rapidly. However, IF their estimates are correct, the cut off date moment should be uniform. For example, I think EB2 dates hovered around Jun 02 to Jan 03 and unavailable in recent months bc's they are getting much more than estimated new 485 filings (may be due to concurrent filings from recent BEC approvals of old PDs or EB3 to EB2 conversions) . This probably the reason why EB1 applicants are getting 485 approvals fast now (as soon as name check is cleared) as their is no queue inside waiting for visa numbers.
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gc_tx_2003
Registered Users (C)
good anology.
But the crucial thing to note here is that -- the visa number consumption is not based on 485 filing -- but on final adjucation of the 485 app.
please note, that if your PD is current you filed for 485, it can then take years for your app to get actually approved, based on the retrogression forward / backward movements. it is actually the final adjucation they are moving the cutoffs forward or backward on.
so what it means is that based on the current 485 backlog -- and what reaches the final adjucation state everymonth -- NOTHING ELSE.
In this case I believe what it means is that -- as of today, there are less than X number of visa nos available / mo. , of the apps that had PDs between jun 2002 and jan 2003, that is readily approvable.
the real question is what that X is .
Without any spillover from excesses in EB1 and EB2 ROW if any, it is just 2800/12. , so we can expect a huge slowdown in the EB2 india movement,
if the 485 apps adjucation is fast. - It will stay in Jan 2003 (or) advance until jul 2003, and then become unavailable probaby around Mar/Apr 2007.
if infact there is spillover, assume 10000 each in EB1 and EB2, that is 20000, that will then spillover to EB2 IN/CH (OR) EB3 ROW ( Still do not know which one ).
If it is EB2 then we shud expect, atleast about 8,000 - 10,000 visas this yr for EB2.,that shud bring it to atleast late 2003/ 2004.
If it goes to EB3 ROW, atleast EB3 has to advance to 2004 or 2005. , and may be in a yr or two., it can become current, and EB2 India and EB3 india
can finally get reasonable allocations for the dates to advance.
But the crucial thing to note here is that -- the visa number consumption is not based on 485 filing -- but on final adjucation of the 485 app.
please note, that if your PD is current you filed for 485, it can then take years for your app to get actually approved, based on the retrogression forward / backward movements. it is actually the final adjucation they are moving the cutoffs forward or backward on.
so what it means is that based on the current 485 backlog -- and what reaches the final adjucation state everymonth -- NOTHING ELSE.
In this case I believe what it means is that -- as of today, there are less than X number of visa nos available / mo. , of the apps that had PDs between jun 2002 and jan 2003, that is readily approvable.
the real question is what that X is .
Without any spillover from excesses in EB1 and EB2 ROW if any, it is just 2800/12. , so we can expect a huge slowdown in the EB2 india movement,
if the 485 apps adjucation is fast. - It will stay in Jan 2003 (or) advance until jul 2003, and then become unavailable probaby around Mar/Apr 2007.
if infact there is spillover, assume 10000 each in EB1 and EB2, that is 20000, that will then spillover to EB2 IN/CH (OR) EB3 ROW ( Still do not know which one ).
If it is EB2 then we shud expect, atleast about 8,000 - 10,000 visas this yr for EB2.,that shud bring it to atleast late 2003/ 2004.
If it goes to EB3 ROW, atleast EB3 has to advance to 2004 or 2005. , and may be in a yr or two., it can become current, and EB2 India and EB3 india
can finally get reasonable allocations for the dates to advance.
gc_tx_2003
Registered Users (C)
once again, the cutoff dates movement does not seem to be based on even I-140 emand projections.
it is simply based on I-485 final adjucation projections for the month.
So, let us say for argument sake, all present I-485 backlog is empty, the reading will say current EVEN if there are 5 years ( dating back) worth of I-140s approved.
In the current scheme of things in that scenario , they will make it current so lets say all 5 years worth apply in one time, they still will be current for 6 mos or however long it takes to process 485, and then they will say by the way, based on country retrogressions, the PD now is 5 yrs old. , and remain so until all the 5 yrs worth of backlogs are cleared.
I really have not seen such an inefficient process anywhere. if you are retrogressing, you should be able to control the rate of flow of apps in the system, so that you can expect so much movement / month. , in some predictable way.
Right now it is just a gamble, you get a window - you get in -- otherwise who knows how long it will take.
it is simply based on I-485 final adjucation projections for the month.
So, let us say for argument sake, all present I-485 backlog is empty, the reading will say current EVEN if there are 5 years ( dating back) worth of I-140s approved.
In the current scheme of things in that scenario , they will make it current so lets say all 5 years worth apply in one time, they still will be current for 6 mos or however long it takes to process 485, and then they will say by the way, based on country retrogressions, the PD now is 5 yrs old. , and remain so until all the 5 yrs worth of backlogs are cleared.
I really have not seen such an inefficient process anywhere. if you are retrogressing, you should be able to control the rate of flow of apps in the system, so that you can expect so much movement / month. , in some predictable way.
Right now it is just a gamble, you get a window - you get in -- otherwise who knows how long it will take.
Dallas03096
Registered Users (C)
Retrogression and logic???
The guard at Empire State Building or liberty bell works according to some logic. USCIS has its own crazy logic which can not be that simple
If the idea is to reduce the backlog, is there any logic in using the same PD for controlling the I-485 filings (inflow) and for approving the already filed cases (Outlfow)?
Some of us (who have filed I-485) have been lucky in the sense we have been admitted to Empire State Building but we can not get out until Congress brings in new law or PD becomes current by some magic.
Even amongst us, for the lucky few, the processing will be as per some logic. For all others, Chaos and Utter inefficiency are the magical logic of USCIS
For EB3 India, just wait for your lucky draw
GCInThisLife said:Good analysis gc_tx_2003! Seems logical. Most folks (including me earlier) are unnecessarily making the relatively simple concept complicated.
To put it in simple terms, it is analogous to a waiting queue outside empire state building or liberty bell where weekdays ~ ROW and weekends ~ Retro. Every time the guard lifts the rope, he allows a only certain number visitors in based on the information he gets about number of visitors leaving the building and number already in (on top and/or waiting for elevator). If no more available on top, he will hold the rope down (~unavailable) and not let anyone in until he sees a sign that crowd is clearing. This is basically to control/limit the crowd on top of the building. On weekdays, you can go straight to elevator since the inflow is usually less than or equal to outflow. This example doesn't include an equivalent for 485 denials, but jumping off the building can be considered as denial.
So based on the simple information on approx. 485 processing time, number of predicted approvals (or max allowed) and estimated number of new applications for each month advance (may be based on already filed/approved 140s) the cut off dates would be moved so that more applicants can get into 485 processing. If they get more than estimated, the dates move back. If they get less than expected, dates advance rapidly. However, IF their estimates are correct, the cut off date moment should be uniform. For example, I think EB2 dates hovered around Jun 02 to Jan 03 and unavailable in recent months bc's they are getting much more than estimated new 485 filings (may be due to concurrent filings from recent BEC approvals of old PDs or EB3 to EB2 conversions) . This probably the reason why EB1 applicants are getting 485 approvals fast now (as soon as name check is cleared) as their is no queue inside waiting for visa numbers.
The guard at Empire State Building or liberty bell works according to some logic. USCIS has its own crazy logic which can not be that simple
If the idea is to reduce the backlog, is there any logic in using the same PD for controlling the I-485 filings (inflow) and for approving the already filed cases (Outlfow)?
Some of us (who have filed I-485) have been lucky in the sense we have been admitted to Empire State Building but we can not get out until Congress brings in new law or PD becomes current by some magic.
Even amongst us, for the lucky few, the processing will be as per some logic. For all others, Chaos and Utter inefficiency are the magical logic of USCIS
For EB3 India, just wait for your lucky draw
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You will EVENTUALLY get GC for sure.
You seem patient enough to endure all the abuses. Also you refer to IV as your reason for not doing anything. Pretty pathetic!
I think it is shameful that Indians can't seem to come together for a common cause. No wonder the British screwed us for so long....
You seem patient enough to endure all the abuses. Also you refer to IV as your reason for not doing anything. Pretty pathetic!
I think it is shameful that Indians can't seem to come together for a common cause. No wonder the British screwed us for so long....
GC_TRAP said:
marlon2006
Registered Users (C)
We can probably get it, but at what cost ? I am asking myself that question. I am getting old, not doing exactly what I wanted as my professional career.. In addition to these insane bulletins, we also have chances to get stuck for a couple of years in security background checks. I am not sure for long I can take this.
nyc8300 said:
Almost_Done
Registered Users (C)
I'm Finally Current Now
I'm EB3 ROW with May 15, 2002 PD. So, effective Nov1, I will be waiting for great news. I'll keep you all updated on the progress. I believe that I am pre-adjudicated and all they are waiting is for the current PD. Wish me luck please
I'm EB3 ROW with May 15, 2002 PD. So, effective Nov1, I will be waiting for great news. I'll keep you all updated on the progress. I believe that I am pre-adjudicated and all they are waiting is for the current PD. Wish me luck please