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May 2021 visa bulletin

C

coffeemonster

Well-Known Member
All regions CURRENT for June, except:

Except: Egypt 18,900
Except: Iran 6,400, Nepal 6,400

May:
AFRICA 34,000 (Except: Egypt 17,000)
ASIA 13,000 (Except: Iran 6,000, Nepal 5,100)
EUROPE 18,000
NORTH AMERICA (BAHAMAS) 8
OCEANIA 1,400
SOUTH AMERICA,
and the CARIBBEAN 1,650
 
I suspect we are going to see a lot more complaints about the embassies that are not open losing out to those that are
and quite frankly I don’t think there enough visas if all embassies were to open at full capacity ... though that seems unlikely as of now anyway. Seems to me they have either miscalculated interest based on doc submission or taking a calculated gamble that reduced embassy capacity will do the rationing work for them.

I recall an instance a few years back (don’t recall when exactly...but sometime after 2013 when I started watching) that all regions went current and then AF (I think it was only AF) had a cutoff reinstated for Sept of that year. Hope we do not see a repeat of that kind of thing.
 
SusieQQQ said:
I suspect we are going to see a lot more complaints about the embassies that are not open losing out to those that are
and quite frankly I don’t think there enough visas if all embassies were to open at full capacity ... though that seems unlikely as of now anyway. Seems to me they have either miscalculated interest based on doc submission or taking a calculated gamble that reduced embassy capacity will do the rationing work for them.

I recall an instance a few years back (don’t recall when exactly...but sometime after 2013 when I started watching) that all regions went current and then AF (I think it was only AF) had a cutoff reinstated for Sept of that year. Hope we do not see a repeat of that kind of thing.
Click to expand...

Yeah I think Britsimon said he believed the projection of going current last month was due to the bulletin people having poor information about demand.

Personally I can't help thinking that it has more to do with the bulletin guy not wanting his office to be the bottleneck than anything else. Either way this is the best way to maximize the number of visas issued before the deadline. There's so little time left now and so many unissued
visas that if someone with a high CN gets one, it's not really at the expense of anyone else. That might change if there is a court order to reserve them beyond the deadline, but I don't think anyone can assume that that will happen.
 
SusieQQQ said:
I recall an instance a few years back (don’t recall when exactly...but sometime after 2013 when I started watching) that all regions went current and then AF (I think it was only AF) had a cutoff reinstated for Sept of that year. Hope we do not see a repeat of that kind of thing.
Click to expand...
I remember. You don't forget your selection year (all the gray hair remind me of it :)). It was DV2018: https://travel.state.gov/content/tr...letin/2018/visa-bulletin-for-august-2018.html
 
Hi everyone,
For those that follow BritSimon's Youtube, I'm sure you've heard him say multiple times that all going current would be "chaos".
However, I am not sure if he was referring to just CPs, or does that include AOS as well?
 
jasperrrr.c said:
Hi everyone,
For those that follow BritSimon's Youtube, I'm sure you've heard him say multiple times that all going current would be "chaos".
However, I am not sure if he was referring to just CPs, or does that include AOS as well?
Click to expand...
I think that for AOS the "chaos" is simply that there is going to be a lot more applications sent to USCIS at the same time because everyone is current.
 
raphael1899 said:
I think that for AOS the "chaos" is simply that there is going to be a lot more applications sent to USCIS at the same time because everyone is current.
Click to expand...
and the hope that AOS applications don't get long delayed while most of the visa numbers get allocated to CP interviews
I think much of any potential "chaos" is going to depend on how many people actually manage to get interview slots at consulates
 
Is it possible that in countries where embassies are open and the selectee number is low, they will arrange interviews for everyone, even if there number is high?
 
SusieQQQ said:
and the hope that AOS applications don't get long delayed while most of the visa numbers get allocated to CP interviews
I think much of any potential "chaos" is going to depend on how many people actually manage to get interview slots at consulates
Click to expand...
That's what I was worried about earlier this year but then I never thought all regions would become current. Now we have to wait and see how fast they process CP cases abroad compared to AOS here.
 
SusieQQQ said:
and the hope that AOS applications don't get long delayed while most of the visa numbers get allocated to CP interviews
I think much of any potential "chaos" is going to depend on how many people actually manage to get interview slots at consulates
Click to expand...
Looks like the rest of the FY is going to be a wild ride for AOS too. Thank you all for having this forum to keep us as sane as possible, it is more appreciated than ever.
 
raphael1899 said:
That's what I was worried about earlier this year but then I never thought all regions would become current. Now we have to wait and see how fast they process CP cases abroad compared to AOS here.
Click to expand...
I mean... it seems totally random at the moment with respect to this. Some embassies are likely to process way more DV applications than they normally would and others nothing or very low. I have no idea how anyone can figure out what the net effect will be.
 
SusieQQQ said:
I mean... it seems totally random at the moment with respect to this. Some embassies are likely to process way more DV applications than they normally would and others nothing or very low. I have no idea how anyone can figure out what the net effect will be.
Click to expand...
Yes, absolutely. No way to tell. I think in Europe there are very few embassies that are even taking DV cases at the moment. I don't think there's any way they can allocate all available visas in 4 months or so.

Edit: BirtSimon suggests that "less than 90 embassies are accepting interviews."
 
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DV2020EU44 said:
Is it possible that in countries where embassies are open and the selectee number is low, they will arrange interviews for everyone, even if there number is high?
Click to expand...
Sure, if all numbers are current that can happen - and probably will, assuming the capacity to interview is there.
 
raphael1899 said:
Yes, absolutely. No way to tell. I think in Europe there are very few embassies that are even taking DV cases at the moment. I don't think there's any way they can allocate all available visas in 4 months or so.
Click to expand...
But some of the BIG european ones, like Ukraine, are. I don't know what the capacity of Kyiv is, but if they are able to go full steam ahead you could see Ukraine issue enough visas to hit the country limit. So it's not necessarily about the number of embassies that are open, it is about which embassies - and the number of selectees and capacity at those embassies - that matters.

PS the Kyiv website says "Effective immediately, all applicants not previously scheduled must submit electronic copies of required civil documents and copies of each applicant’s passport biodata page to the Kentucky Consular Center (KCC)." Again, I don't know what their actual capacity is but it sounds like they are raring to go.
 
SusieQQQ said:
But some of the BIG european ones, like Ukraine, are. I don't know what the capacity of Kyiv is, but if they are able to go full steam ahead you could see Ukraine issue enough visas to hit the country limit. So it's not necessarily about the number of embassies that are open, it is about which embassies - and the number of selectees and capacity at those embassies - that matters.

PS the Kyiv website says "Effective immediately, all applicants not previously scheduled must submit electronic copies of required civil documents and copies of each applicant’s passport biodata page to the Kentucky Consular Center (KCC)." Again, I don't know what their actual capacity is but it sounds like they are raring to go.
Click to expand...
That is a very good point that I had not considered.
 
I guess it depends on how many second, third, fourth waves this pandemic will bring in the future. Some embassies were starting to open and are again closing now. In Mauritius, there are 189 active cases and the whole country is on extended lockdown until April 30th. I basically had to plead to the Civil Status in my country to obtain an extract of my Birth Certificate during this lockdown. The U.S embassy is also closed. Going the CP route is worse for me than AOS right now if I choose to do so.

1618939867599.png
 
SusieQQQ said:
But some of the BIG european ones, like Ukraine, are. I don't know what the capacity of Kyiv is, but if they are able to go full steam ahead you could see Ukraine issue enough visas to hit the country limit. So it's not necessarily about the number of embassies that are open, it is about which embassies - and the number of selectees and capacity at those embassies - that matters.

PS the Kyiv website says "Effective immediately, all applicants not previously scheduled must submit electronic copies of required civil documents and copies of each applicant’s passport biodata page to the Kentucky Consular Center (KCC)." Again, I don't know what their actual capacity is but it sounds like they are raring to go.
Click to expand...
It is like 7% right? So each country can issue a max total of 3800-something visas? I think you are absolutely right, it will be hard to predict if all visas will be allocated or not in the light of this.
Buckle up, folks!
 
DV21M said:
It is like 7% right? So each country can issue a max total of 3800-something visas? I think you are absolutely right, it will be hard to predict if all visas will be allocated or not in the light of this.
Buckle up, folks!
Click to expand...
yes, 7% of 55k visas.
 
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