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May 2018 Visa Bulletin

Xarthisius

Xarthisius

Well-Known Member
AFRICA: 28,300
Except:
Egypt: 18,150
Ethiopia: 26,000

ASIA: 7,800
Except:
Nepal: 5,900

EUROPE: 20,300

NORTH AMERICA (BAHAMAS): 16

OCEANIA: 1100

SOUTH AMERICA,
and the CARIBBEAN: 1275
 
AF was supposed to increase by 4700 (and my very conservative predictions were accurate till now). They only added 3500. Something is definitely happening. I'm no longer as opimistic as before. Another abnormal progression and it's game over for me.
 
Asia region is on its way to become current , the bulletin is almost same process year of DV2016 and almost same selection .God bless all of you guys
 
vanchandavy said:
Asia region is on its way to become current , the bulletin is almost same process year of DV2016 and almost same selection .God bless all of you guys
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What’s your forcass for July, Aug and Sep ? VB got Asia, I am only the DV2018 AS within high number, can you please PM like to share my calculations with you, thanks you
 
Interesting, i still want to feel optimistic but it ain't easy :)... Anyone got any predictions for Oceania?...looks like it's progressing as expected...any thoughts on OC going current?... whether it's within the realm of possibility considering the unpredictable climate of the DV this year...
 
saimone said:
Interesting, i still want to feel optimistic but it ain't easy :)... Anyone got any predictions for Oceania?...looks like it's progressing as expected...any thoughts on OC going current?... whether it's within the realm of possibility considering the unpredictable climate of the DV this year...
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OC cannot go current. It will get to around 1450/1500
 
Britsimon said:
OC cannot go current. It will get to around 1450/1500
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Thanks Britsimon....sadly your predictions are always mostly correct :) , i feel for those of us OC's over 15xx :( ... i was soo looking forward to some possibility.... there goes otimisim out the window.....thanks Britsimon...
 
saimone said:
Thanks Britsimon....sadly your predictions are always mostly correct :) , i feel for those of us OC's over 15xx :( ... i was soo looking forward to some possibility.... there goes otimisim out the window.....thanks Britsimon...
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Better to be prepared for the downside, right?
 
SAM0130 said:
What’s your forcass for July, Aug and Sep ? VB got Asia, I am only the DV2018 AS within high number, can you please PM like to share my calculations with you, thanks you
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The last increment included 811 "real cases," obviously including non-respondents we don't know of yet (we'll know of them only with the help of the mighty Xarthisius). If they continue at the same pace, the next VB should be around 10,500 for July and 13,500 for August. Needless to say, this assumes there won't be any changes in the travel ban or any other unexpected changes. Also. the current batch still included a good number of Iranian cases, which might have a lower response rate this year, so it might be reasonable to assume that the same number of real cases will mean less CNs from now on - although looking at the numbers seems to indicate that there is generally a low response rate in the ROA also.
 
Yosef said:
@Britsimon do you agree with this predication ?
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There is no relationship to DV2016 - things are very different for VERY different reasons. BUT unless the travel ban is removed, many selectees in AS region cannot get their visas, and thus far KCC seem to be reclaiming those visa slots. If that continues, it is certainly possible to see AS go current. The travel ban is due for Supreme court hearing at the end of this month.
 
Hello @Xarthisius

I wanted to ask a quick question about the table on the dvcharts website. Does the numbers in table include the "In Transit" and "Transfer in Progress" cases ? and do you know what the difference is between these two please ?
 
Sihem said:
Hello @Xarthisius

I wanted to ask a quick question about the table on the dvcharts website. Does the numbers in table include the "In Transit" and "Transfer in Progress" cases ? and do you know what the difference is between these two please ?
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In Transit are cases sent from KCC to embassies. Transfer in Progress are cases sent from one embassy to another embassy. Neither of them are included. The summary table contains number of actual people/GCs in a given category. In Transit cases don't have info about number of derivatives, while Transfer in Progress cases are rare and short lived (they soon become ready).
 
DanE1978 said:
The last increment included 811 "real cases," obviously including non-respondents we don't know of yet (we'll know of them only with the help of the mighty Xarthisius). If they continue at the same pace, the next VB should be around 10,500 for July and 13,500 for August. Needless to say, this assumes there won't be any changes in the travel ban or any other unexpected changes. Also. the current batch still included a good number of Iranian cases, which might have a lower response rate this year, so it might be reasonable to assume that the same number of real cases will mean less CNs from now on - although looking at the numbers seems to indicate that there is generally a low response rate in the ROA also.
Click to expand...
Woohoo! Dead on! It was an easy guess though, and not so joyful for me since I just missed the cutoff, but that's life. Indeed the ROA had a higher response rate by almost 10%. Seems like next VB for AS will either be currant or around 13,200.
 
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