I-485 Adjustment Waiting Time Issue

Robin Grey

Registered Users (C)
#1
//*The following message was posted by alanpero on 6/11/02 8:28 PM:
It varies, could be up to five years if you filed before 1998. Or it could be up to 10 years (maybe more, who knows?) if you filed in 2002. For intermediate years, the waiting time increases progressively.
All this under the assumption that the 10,000 quota is not modified, the President of the US timely approves the Presidential Determination every FY, and the INS effectively approves 10,000 visas every FY.*//
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This ten years viewpoint has been repeated on this forum a couple of times.
I am wondering how come people get this conclusion. Have you known exactly the pending I-485 number in the INS backlog?
According to the INS Asylum Statistics,
                    Fiscal Year || Asylee Granted
                      2001 7839
                      2000 7295
                      1999 6871
                      1998 6714
                      1997 6538
                                 Total: 35257
Currently the NSC is processing all the case filed by June 2,1998. Let\'s suppose all asylees granted in 1997 are still waiting adjustment, and 1/3 asylees have family member abroad reunion after granted date. Let\'s say the number 35257 then become ~50000~. So it is about 5 years for waiting if other conditions unchanged.
It\'s just my point. Any comment welcomed.
--Robin
 

alanpero

Registered Users (C)
#2
Robin

Don\'t know where you got those numbers from, but go to this link: http://www.ins.usdoj.gov/graphics/aboutins/statistics/workload.htm ,look the fiscal year end reports and will find the following number of asylum cases approved:
2001: 20651
2000: 16810
1999: 13510
1998: 10364
1997: 10509
Note that these are number of cases (not number of individuals). The 10,000 yearly quota is for individuals (not cases). If you search a little further within INS website, you will find that the number of individuals is in between 35 to 50% more than the number of cases. This makes everything even worse.
Also, as somebody else very well pointed out sometime ago, these statistics numbers reported do not include the cases coming from BIA after the appealing process. I remember some statistics on that were also reported. So, everything is even more aggravated by that.
One more point, you have to account also for those relatives from asylees that join them after the asylum was granted (they are also potential I-485 applicants). Do some search within INS website old reports and will find that they represent about 10 to 15 %, if I recall well.
After considering all these facts, you will find out that the ten years wait (or maybe more) for those people that filed in 2002 it is not a pesimistic view; unfortunately, it is the reality.
always under the assumption that those conditions I mentioned in my original message, don\'t change to make everything worse.
 

algobo

Registered Users (C)
#3
True

That\'s true alanpero but also notice that not everybody files I-485 and some others don\'t file in the following year.
But the true is that it\'s going to take a while.
Robin, where did you get that information???
 

alanpero

Registered Users (C)
#5
Robin

Yeah, it looks like. But not sure really. Anyway, people that get their asylum approved after the appealing process are also potential I-485 applicants and will be processed under the 10,000 yearly quota; therefore, they should be accounted in conjunction with INS statistics.
 

Robin Grey

Registered Users (C)
#6
Number of Individuals Granted Asylum By INS -- FY1997-1999

FY1997 || 15799
FY1998 || 12924
FY1999 || 17800
But I can\'t locate the data for Fiscal Year 2000 and 2001, I guess the number should be around 16000. So the total is about 80000. Still a frustrated figure.
Go to the link:
http://www.ins.usdoj.gov/graphics/aboutins/statistics/99YrbkREF/RA99Excltbls/Table26.xls

*********
If you can not take care of yourself seriously, nobody can.
 

alanpero

Registered Users (C)
#7
Robin

It is even more frustrating. The 80,000 you came out with is an optimistic figure, far away from reality. You don\'t have the number of individuals for FY 00 and 01, but have the number of cases; which are reported as 16,810 and 20,651 respectively. Now, add 35 % to get the number of individuals and will find that 25,000 individuals per year is a more realistic approach compared to your guess of 16,000.
If on top of that you take into account other items discussed in previous messages, you must agree that the 10 year wait for people filing I-485 in 2002 is even a kind of optimistic estimate.
 

Robin Grey

Registered Users (C)
#8
Support S. 1311/H.R. 4074 Bills

************S.1311***********
Sponsor: Sen Leahy, Patrick J.(D - VT)(introduced 8/2/2001)
Cosponsors(9):(By Date)
Sen Brownback, Sam (R - KS)- 8/2/2001;
Sen Kennedy, Edward M. (D - MA)- 8/2/2001;
Sen Collins, Susan M. (R - ME)- 8/2/2001;
Sen Durbin, Richard J. (D - IL)- 8/2/2001;
Sen Jeffords, James M. (I - VT)- 8/2/2001;
Sen Graham, Bob (D - FL)- 8/2/2001;
Sen Wellstone, Paul D. (D - MN)- 9/4/2001;
Sen Feingold, Russell D.(D - WI)- 4/8/2002;
Sen Specter, Arlen (R - PA)- 6/7/2002.

***********H.R.4074**************
Sponsor: Rep Smith, Christopher H.(R)(introduced 3/20/2002)
Cosponsors(6): (By Date)
Rep Berman, Howard L. (D)- 3/20/2002;
Rep Delahunt, William D. (D)- 3/20/2002;
Rep Jackson, Jesse L., Jr. (D)- 4/29/2002;
Rep Levin, Sander M. (D)- 4/29/2002;
Rep Ros-Lehtinen, Ileana (R)- 3/20/2002;
Rep Woolsey, Lynn C. (D)- 5/14/2002.
  
**A cosponsor is a Member of Congress who has joined one or more other Members in his/her chamber (i.e., House or Senate) to sponsor a bill or amendment. (The first Member to "sign onto" a bill is considered the "sponsor," Members subsequently signing on are "cosponsors.") Any number of Members may cosponsor a bill in the House or Senate.The THOMAS COSPONSOR(S) display shows the Member\'s name and date that she/he signed onto the bill.**
 

algobo

Registered Users (C)
#9
Reality

So being reasonable, it doesn\'t make any sense to file for I-485, if the above calculations are real, can be almost 20 years to become US citizens, the best thing to do is try to get an employement based GC.
Is it possble to switch from an immigrant visa to a non-immigrant one??
Any experience??
 
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