Guys this should be a week of surprises.........we should see some good news..I hope
- Thread starter helper007
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Depressing piece from Ron Gotcher: 80,000 backlog cases for AOS to be cleaned up
( - i will tighten my seatbelt and wait... just FYI. this will have a big impact for all of us. good luck to all...
----from Ron Gotcher\'s post-------
That is the question that no one can answer. Back before the INS stopped processing AOS applications entirely (March - December, 1999), the CSC was running a backlog of about two to two and a half years. During the processing halt, a very large number of cases piled up in the backlog.
When processing resumed in early 2000, the CSC began processing very recently filed cases. There were a number of reasons for this. Since then, they seem to have continued to process the more recently filed cases, while ignoring those that were on file when the processing stopped back in 1999.
They have taken a lot of criticism for this and have been sued several times. A month ago, their "Just in Time Report" showed that the cases that they were processing in May had been filed in December of last year. This did not mean that they had processed all of the cases filed before December of last year, only that those were the cases they were processing in May. The current JIT report shows that they are processing cases filed in January 1998.
It appears that they may have decided to go back and clean up their backlog before processing additional recently filed cases. If so, this would mean that they are now working through the inventory of approximately 80,000 pending AOS cases.
Depressing piece from Ron Gotcher: 80,000 backlog cases for AOS to be cleaned up
( - i will tighten my seatbelt and wait... just FYI. this will have a big impact for all of us. good luck to all... ----from Ron Gotcher\'s post-------
That is the question that no one can answer. Back before the INS stopped processing AOS applications entirely (March - December, 1999), the CSC was running a backlog of about two to two and a half years. During the processing halt, a very large number of cases piled up in the backlog.
When processing resumed in early 2000, the CSC began processing very recently filed cases. There were a number of reasons for this. Since then, they seem to have continued to process the more recently filed cases, while ignoring those that were on file when the processing stopped back in 1999.
They have taken a lot of criticism for this and have been sued several times. A month ago, their "Just in Time Report" showed that the cases that they were processing in May had been filed in December of last year. This did not mean that they had processed all of the cases filed before December of last year, only that those were the cases they were processing in May. The current JIT report shows that they are processing cases filed in January 1998.
It appears that they may have decided to go back and clean up their backlog before processing additional recently filed cases. If so, this would mean that they are now working through the inventory of approximately 80,000 pending AOS cases.
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AN I think this is bullshit from lawyer....80000 pending cases !! what is that ?? Lets say all 97 ND has been approved........Lets assume complete 1998/1999 and some 2000 cases are pending....assuming about 500 working days for about 2 years each day 80000/500 = 160 485 petitions were filed in those pending years !! I think this is crap !!
AN I think this is bullshit from lawyer....80000 pending cases !! what is that ?? Lets say all 97 ND has been approved........Lets assume complete 1998/1999 and some 2000 cases are pending....assuming about 500 working days for about 2 years each day 80000/500 = 160 485 petitions were filed in those pending years !! I think this is crap !!
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No no no ..even if we put employment and family 485\'s together we just cannot justify 160 485 apps each day for 2 yrs.. !! i am pretty sure of that !! there are thousands of other apps coming in daily....485 just forms about 3-5 % of application ( my lawyer had told me months back )
No no no ..even if we put employment and family 485\'s together we just cannot justify 160 485 apps each day for 2 yrs.. !! i am pretty sure of that !! there are thousands of other apps coming in daily....485 just forms about 3-5 % of application ( my lawyer had told me months back )
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ok. here\'s my $.02 worth - leave the family-based AOS apart - just on employment-based category:
for each year from \'98-00 - India and China were oversubscribed - so this was 10,000/country. All other countries of the world could make a 30K atleast, if not more(out of the 100K+ H1-Bs/year).. So, it amounts to 50-60K AOS applicants for EB category every year ATLEAST.
so, we have 50K*3 = 150K applicants for EB category. Ron Gotcher says that the INS stopped processing 485 for a long time in 99 (or 98). So the backlog of 80K cases is a possibility here... NOT counting the FB category.
But, INS may not want history to repeat itself - so they may be simultaneously clearing out old and new cases. this is my hope too.
yikes! i never really get into this kind of number crunching speculations. but, thinking about all possibilities drove me to it. i don\'t mean to screw up anybody\'s happiness. i am as anxious as anybody else to get out of the INS trap we are all inside.
ok. here\'s my $.02 worth - leave the family-based AOS apart - just on employment-based category:
for each year from \'98-00 - India and China were oversubscribed - so this was 10,000/country. All other countries of the world could make a 30K atleast, if not more(out of the 100K+ H1-Bs/year).. So, it amounts to 50-60K AOS applicants for EB category every year ATLEAST.
so, we have 50K*3 = 150K applicants for EB category. Ron Gotcher says that the INS stopped processing 485 for a long time in 99 (or 98). So the backlog of 80K cases is a possibility here... NOT counting the FB category.
But, INS may not want history to repeat itself - so they may be simultaneously clearing out old and new cases. this is my hope too.
yikes! i never really get into this kind of number crunching speculations. but, thinking about all possibilities drove me to it. i don\'t mean to screw up anybody\'s happiness. i am as anxious as anybody else to get out of the INS trap we are all inside.
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an, junc, ProActive, helper, debo, and others,
Just for clarification, CSC does not process family-based I-485.
Family-based I-485 have to be filed to local offices.
In addition, calculations made by an are excellent. However,
one thing you (an) forgot to consider: there are four service
centers. Your number should probably be divided by 4 (roughly
speaking).
ciba
an, junc, ProActive, helper, debo, and others,
Just for clarification, CSC does not process family-based I-485.
Family-based I-485 have to be filed to local offices.
In addition, calculations made by an are excellent. However,
one thing you (an) forgot to consider: there are four service
centers. Your number should probably be divided by 4 (roughly
speaking).
ciba
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Hi Ciba,
As usual, you are right! it\'s useful to know that FB category is processed by local offices and not the SCs. and that the pending AOS applicants total should be divided by 4.
hmmm, 20,000 looks better than 80,000
thanks a lot for your patience and the helpful info. you are the best!
-an
Hi Ciba,
As usual, you are right! it\'s useful to know that FB category is processed by local offices and not the SCs. and that the pending AOS applicants total should be divided by 4.
hmmm, 20,000 looks better than 80,000
thanks a lot for your patience and the helpful info. you are the best!
-an