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February 2022 Visa Bulletin

Xarthisius

Well-Known Member
Cutoff for the month: MARCH
AFRICA 21,000 ; Except: Egypt 11,000
ASIA 8,300 ; Except: Iran 6,000 Nepal 4,200
EUROPE 13,500 ;
NORTH AMERICA (BAHAMAS) 8 ;
OCEANIA 850 ;
SOUTH AMERICA, and the CARIBBEAN 1,200 ;
 

Britsimon

Super Moderator
Cutoff for the month: MARCH
AFRICA 21,000 ; Except: Egypt 11,000
ASIA 8,300 ; Except: Iran 6,000 Nepal 4,200
EUROPE 13,500 ;
NORTH AMERICA (BAHAMAS) 8 ;
OCEANIA 850 ;
SOUTH AMERICA, and the CARIBBEAN 1,200 ;

For anyone that wants to understand why the progression was so low, I published a video the night before the VB that explained that, and why they really did not need to move the VB numbers in order to get enough interviews. The video also explains capacity of the "system" using historical data, and that is also important to understand what might happen moving forward.

 

Aror2022

Member
Hello @Britsimon, all the case numbers below the monthly bulletin will be processing by KCC until the end for interview appointments? or they are processing also higher numbers despite the bulletin published? Thanks
 

Britsimon

Super Moderator
Hello @Britsimon, all the case numbers below the monthly bulletin will be processing by KCC until the end for interview appointments? or they are processing also higher numbers despite the bulletin published? Thanks
Ds260s can be processed at any number. But interviews can only happen for current cases.
 

Atg

Member
@Britsimon At the current pace, till what number can they process cases by September? What do you think?
What is happening now is the worst possible scenario... I played with numbers from the historical VB that Simon has on his site... And since they switched back to no DQ model, I took data from 2018 to 2001... If they keep working with minimum capacity, it doesn't look promising at all...

1642433895493.png
Please understand that his model simply takes historically minimum monthly progress for EU region, ignoring months without progress (yup, it happened before). I was shocked to see it matches the March bulletin :(
 

DV2020EU44

Active Member

Atg

Did you consider number of applicants, holes and highest numbers? This year is somewhat close to 2018 with these details and very different from the rest.
 

Atg

Member

Atg

Did you consider number of applicants, holes and highest numbers? This year is somewhat close to 2018 with these details and very different from the rest.
No, I didn't.... 2018 is somewhat similar, but the tendency is that there are fewer holes, so my guess is that number might be much lower. So I think that Jesse Bless was onto something with their litigation available to only EU applicants below 19k. On the contrary Immpact Team don't have any limitation, and based on their latest video I am not sure they understood @Britsimon who tried to point out very slow progress and how this year is different from others.

We could stay on these VB numbers for the next few months. There was a historical slowdown in January-March with VB progress, but since we are somehow late and everything is delayed for a few months, we are about to experience a slowdown for March-May. I don't see that VB numbers would be changed if something is not drastically changed.

I am not convinced that two announced litigation will change anything. I also fail to understand how it would benefit plaintiffs, and that might discourage their participation in it. I think it would be fairer to have a class action, with public funding with a set goal, so everyone could chip in for a bigger cause.

We are yet to find out how COVID affects VB progress. They might artificially increase CN cutoff, as there might be smaller embassies idling because they sorted out current numbers and they are locked with slow VB progress as bigger embassies are impaired by COVID, redirection from other embassies, etc...
 

DV2020EU44

Active Member

Atg

It's possible to compare 2018 and 2022 details, because there is data available on Xarthisius's website, but it does not make much sense because circumstances are way too different.

Don't be too desperate, everything will be ok.
 

Britsimon

Super Moderator
What is happening now is the worst possible scenario... I played with numbers from the historical VB that Simon has on his site... And since they switched back to no DQ model, I took data from 2018 to 2001... If they keep working with minimum capacity, it doesn't look promising at all...

View attachment 3272
Please understand that his model simply takes historically minimum monthly progress for EU region, ignoring months without progress (yup, it happened before). I was shocked to see it matches the March bulletin :(
This model completely ignores how things actually work.
 
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