eb-2 when will it be current?
- Thread starter fimbria
- Start date
Guys
Based on current dates EB2 for India has moved one yr in 2 months. Now that is pretty good now granted if it continues at the same rate then the backlog will be eliminated in 10 months. Now I know that the 245 date is looming in front and April 2001 will be an imp date on whether the dates will move slower after that but still 1 yr in 2 months is very fast.
Even if it continues at a slower rate backlog can be eliminated , of course making it current is the best option but without that even if it progresses 6 months every 3 months then we are still looking at 3 yrs.
Based on current dates EB2 for India has moved one yr in 2 months. Now that is pretty good now granted if it continues at the same rate then the backlog will be eliminated in 10 months. Now I know that the 245 date is looming in front and April 2001 will be an imp date on whether the dates will move slower after that but still 1 yr in 2 months is very fast.
Even if it continues at a slower rate backlog can be eliminated , of course making it current is the best option but without that even if it progresses 6 months every 3 months then we are still looking at 3 yrs.
fimbria said:
Just think about 50K H1B visa for india last year. So, in order for you to get to your PD (around Jan 06). At least the other 50K family needs to get GC first. And .... Count 10K GC for India every year. To let 50K family get visa, you need to wait for 5*3= 15 years. I did not count the number of indian who filed GC before.
(Assume all 50K H1B people already applied for LC. Assume 3 people per family).
I don't want to do the math more and more. Just give you some insight.
I dont completely agree with that calculation, Also the fact that it has moved 1 yr in 2months does show that it has progressed, I am not saying that it will continue at the same rate but atleast it has progressed. Werent there a lot of H1B applying back then too but still the dates did move...or am I totally missing something here 
uselessguy
New Member
H1B quota was increased from 65k to 195k for the years 2001, 2002, 2003. Assuming most of these folks went into the GC queue, the possibility of EB2 priority dates getting current is very remote.
It will never become current in future years, unless the numbers are increased. Now it is moving fast (6months/month). But it wont be the same in future months. It will get reduced in future months due to LC clearence from BEC. Currently EB2-India retrogression is 5 years. After stabilization, it will remain atleast 3 years for many months or years. This is my guess .
Further, one guy predicted it will take atleast 15 years to get GC in EB3-India catagory, if any one has PD Dec2005 or Jan 2006.
.Further, one guy predicted it will take atleast 15 years to get GC in EB3-India catagory, if any one has PD Dec2005 or Jan 2006.
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srini88 said:I dont completely agree with that calculation, Also the fact that it has moved 1 yr in 2months does show that it has progressed, I am not saying that it will continue at the same rate but atleast it has progressed. Werent there a lot of H1B applying back then too but still the dates did move...or am I totally missing something here
Remember there are not many people with PD of 1998-2001 left in the queue (many of them got GC already). So, you could expect the PD move fast up to 2001.
After 2001, around 2003-2005, alot of big companies start profitable. They start to file GC. My company files over 1K LC during that period (the wait time for people to get their LC file is 8-10 months since submiting all paper works, even they hired 3 big law firms to take care visa people)
All H1B get into the country during the years 2001, 2002, 2003 , 2004 should already have their GC filed (LC stage or I140 or I485 stage).
Total H1B visa = 195*3 + 65 = 650K.
Assume 1/3 of them are indian (I am sure more than 1/3).
650K/3 = 216K
Assume 2 people per family (I am sure most family has more than 2 people
GC needs 216K*2 = 432K
Let see how many GC per year allocated to Indian : 140K & 7% = 10K.
Just see the number of how many years. I did not count people who get H1B in 2005.
Of course, you can hope that PD move 6 months every month and get GC in 3 years (Hope all other H1B left the country so you can get GC).
Either way, just wait then. There is no limited for H1B extension. Many people I know in their 9 years of H1B, but none of them leave the country yet since they could not get 120+K/year from home
Newbies,
Please don't scare new guy with your statistics !!! hi hi hiii
I got refresh after reading this thread at 8.40 pm
Please don't scare new guy with your statistics !!! hi hi hiii
I got refresh after reading this thread at 8.40 pm
newbies said:Remember there are not many people with PD of 1998-2001 left in the queue (many of them got GC already). So, you could expect the PD move fast up to 2001.
After 2001, around 2003-2005, alot of big companies start profitable. They start to file GC. My company files over 1K LC during that period (the wait time for people to get their LC file is 8-10 months since submiting all paper works, even they hired 3 big law firms to take care visa people)
All H1B get into the country during the years 2001, 2002, 2003 , 2004 should already have their GC filed (LC stage or I140 or I485 stage).
Total H1B visa = 195*3 + 65 = 650K.
Assume 1/3 of them are indian (I am sure more than 1/3).
650K/3 = 216K
Assume 2 people per family (I am sure most family has more than 2 people
GC needs 216K*2 = 432K
Let see how many GC per year allocated to Indian : 140K & 7% = 10K.
Just see the number of how many years. I did not count people who get H1B in 2005.
Of course, you can hope that PD move 6 months every month and get GC in 3 years (Hope all other H1B left the country so you can get GC).
Either way, just wait then. There is no limited for H1B extension. Many people I know in their 9 years of H1B, but none of them leave the country yet since they could not get 120+K/year from home
eb-3 is understood,coz lot of people qualify for it and they apply.but eb-2 also you all say it might take 10yrs-15 yrs,then if thats the case why would any one want to come to this country?if we are here just for good salaries,there are other european countries as well.anyways did such retrogression happen in the past?
fimbria said:
In the past, not many people come to the US with H1B visa. 65k visa and 140K GC had never been used for all each year.
That is why we try to push for capturing of those visa in the last 10 years.
Now you could imagine that they never get this bad situation like right now. Also, due to 3 years with 195K H1B but the number of GC is still the same.
About EB2, Don't think only few people can qualify EB2? Everyone can qualify with BS+5 at anytime soon.
Let say, A person came to the US with BS+2 in 2002 (Most H1B people have this right. If not, they just need to wait for 1-2 year to apply for GC). He applied for EB3 with BS+2. His LC got certified around 2005. He applied for I140 and got it approved. At this time (2005), He applied for EB2 with BS+5. Then, he uses the old approved I140 to gets back 3 year PD.
Finally, He is at EB2 with PD 2002 (3 years early than you are, so even his I140 approved after you. His I485 will be processed before you)
How many people have that story? I could say most of them if they know how to play the game. (Of course, most lawyer will tell them so they could charge some more money
The final suggestion, you have 2 options:
1) FIGHT if you want GC in few years. If you don't know what to do, read this forums offen and follow all active members. But DO NOT FIGHT FOR ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION SUPPORT (READ THE BILL BEFORE SUPPORTING IT). IT WILL MAKE THE RETRO MORE WORSE.
2) play death and just collect enough saving (let say a milion or half of it) then go home for better future. Also try to get I140 approval(keep the copy of it), so you can come back and get GC in several years later
if you want.people are getting one thing wrong.....some think that the PD are moving fast means it will continue at the same rate...........thats wrong....PD cutoff is moving fast right now because the number of cases with those PD are less than 1%...
some think that because the number of visa are less....the PD will move very very slow.....well i dont think it is the case..........i think after the old cases are approved...there wont be much left with old pd...hence it will move very fast.....but then it will get slower and slower....
my rough estimate is that PD will be behind the current date by:
...3 years behind for EB1
......atleast 6-8 years behind
......9-10 years for EB3
but right now EB3 does not look good...because most of the cases filed between 2001-2003 were EB3..
in other words....not many will come to usa for GC....they will come here for more money....temporarily.....that will be so much better than the current delusion....we are facing....after having spent 4-5 years thinking GC is our right.....now we have to think of a plan B
some think that because the number of visa are less....the PD will move very very slow.....well i dont think it is the case..........i think after the old cases are approved...there wont be much left with old pd...hence it will move very fast.....but then it will get slower and slower....
my rough estimate is that PD will be behind the current date by:
...3 years behind for EB1
......atleast 6-8 years behind
......9-10 years for EB3
but right now EB3 does not look good...because most of the cases filed between 2001-2003 were EB3..
in other words....not many will come to usa for GC....they will come here for more money....temporarily.....that will be so much better than the current delusion....we are facing....after having spent 4-5 years thinking GC is our right.....now we have to think of a plan B
Everyone relax and enjoy a good Christmas holiday. Here is what I predict will happen next year.
2006 is an election year (Full House + 1/3 Senate). McCain-Kennedy bill or some other form of EB immigration relief is sure to be passed by Congress and by Dec 31 2006, all categories will be current.
Everyone stuck right now will have approved GC in their hand by 2007
2006 is an election year (Full House + 1/3 Senate). McCain-Kennedy bill or some other form of EB immigration relief is sure to be passed by Congress and by Dec 31 2006, all categories will be current.
Everyone stuck right now will have approved GC in their hand by 2007
fimbria said:
Anyone who has followed H1-B and EB GC over the last 10 years or so can tell you that all these retrogression etc comes and goes. There was severe retrogression for some time in the late '90s and then came the AC-21 bill which eased all those quotas. Now retrogression is back but in the next year or so there will be some legislation to ease this up.
Especially as the US economy improves, they will figure out a way to ease EB GC restrictions. So, I dont think I am being too optimistic, but trying to be realistic based on past history.