Check this ( Good Information )

J

Jitup

Registered Users (C)
Please see the attached excel sheet.
I think they approved lot of cases last year.

Last Dec, they just processed 9800 cases only.
All these information is from BCIS.gov ( month immigration updates)
 
How is this info "good" ? Approvals have been dissappearing faster than an all meat pizza at a weight watcher's convention.
 
Jitup, where you got that info?

it could be good news, I would like to see what about febrary approval.

by Jan, it still have 300K left for Oct, 2001, even given 50K approval per month, it could take half a year. Sign...

Jitup, could you let me know where I can get that information, thanks
 
where can I find the excel that you have attached on the BCIS website?
I could not find it any where.
-jay.
 
BCIS published february report (http://www.bcis.gov/graphics/aboutus/statistics/msrfeb03/BENEFIT.HTM).
Here is some simple math out of this report as well as previous monthly reports.

1. Total pending 485 cases on 03/01/03 - 1094920.
2. From total pending and monthly receipts, we can get monthly approved cases:

Y/Month. Receipts. Tot.pend. Approved
01/10... 98024.... 1001887.. 75822
01/11... 67572.... 950481... 118978
01/12... 55458.... 936928... 69011
02/1.... 52990.... 922955... 66963
02/2.... 55419.... 888264... 90110
02/3.... 55399.... 858941... 84722
02/4.... 67518.... 855439... 71020
02/5.... 66369.... 854218... 67590
02/6.... 62751.... 847904... 69065
02/7.... 60297.... 840929... 67272
02/8.... 59472.... 854905... 45496
02/9.... 62374.... 966341... -49062
02/10... 65382.... 980756... 50967
02/11... 55418.... 1005709.. 30465
02/12... 51600.... 1047477.. 9832
03/1.... 56275.... 1078956.. 24796
03/2.... 52474.... 1094920.. 36510


3. Remember, this is not CSC, this is all centers.
4. How pending cases are distributed in time:
50128 before 10/01/01
763643 from 10/01/01 to 10/01/02
281149 from 10/01/02 to 03/01/03
This is an approximation, bcoz, actually, more cases left before 10/01/01 and less after that date.
5. Average receipts rate since 10/01/01 is 58044.
6. Average approval rate since 10/01/01 is 61970. Approval rate is higher than receipts rate!!!!
7. Last comment, negative approvals in september 02 is not an error. I think this is the result of an audit or overhaul of the whole housekeeping. Those cases were lost and added to the system. Similar thing happened in june 01. So, they, probably make cleanup every 1.5 years...
 
trends based on this info

Hi People,
I know this sounds like BS, but if you take trends on it - it seems reasonable at one level - i know some of you are waiting for unreasonable amounts of time - this is not your answer - all this does is make some simple assumptions.

Ok - what does this xls which is attached do?

1. Assumptions that can be varied are:
a. New receipts /month = currently set at 55,000 (reasonable given past trend) - you can change
b. # of cases approved per month = rising - close to 36K, I set it at 40K for this run of the trend - you can set at whatever # you want depending on how optimistic/pessimistic you are :)

What this will show is how the following lines move:-
1. Total pending cases
2. Approval rate (constant)
3. If you filed TODAY - how long it would take you to get your 485 (come out to just over 2 years)

Play with it.

long_wait_4_gc
 
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