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August visa bulletin the final.

Mijoro

Well-Known Member
socks-and-sandals.jpg


I think Simon was thinking something like this...
 

MattWatt

Active Member
So much hilarity awaiting the VB. Keep it coming guys - keep me from thinking too much about the OC numbers.

:confused:
 

istog

Member
Britsimon ,After you've seen the updated CEAC data, what do you thing any changes of your prediction in any region?
what do you think about EU numbers?
13,000 issued ,2,200 in AP and Ready for June and July.
 

Britsimon

Super Moderator
Britsimon ,After you've seen the updated CEAC data, what do you thing any changes of your prediction in any region?
what do you think about EU numbers?
13,000 issued ,2,200 in AP and Ready for June and July.

I've written some time ago that the pace of EU is far ahead of other regions. None of us a sure what that means (whether there has been a dramatic quota change as Sloner suggests, or whether this is purely a case of easier cases go through faster). However, what is obvious is that we are still seeing the EU number rising at around 2000 per month. KCC have moved to slow that down (with small VB jumps over the last couple of months), but the demand was already in the system so now I imagine AP cases being resolved will be a significant demand on the remaining visas. If we continue at current pace or 2k per month (and without any quota of global limit being imposed) we would see EU at these numbers:-

End of June - 15k (These cases are already in the system as interviews booked, ready or AP)
End of July - 17k (These cases are already in the system as interviews booked, ready or AP)
End of August - 19k (These cases would come from the remaining 20K case numbers plus ready and AP cases from previous months)
End of September - 21k (These cases would come from the remaining 20K case numbers plus ready and AP cases from previous months)

I do NOT believe EU will be allowed to go to 21k (plus aos cases of around 700/800). In 2013 EU got 16.6k (including aos) from a global 51k. So - a 5k increase of quota for EU would be a HUGE surprise.

So - KCC tried to put the brakes on for EU a couple of months ago and the engine is still overheating (heading for 21k). I'm worried about that - because I think they may continue to apply the brakes. However, we will get some more idea about that in the next few days. I am nervously waiting.

By the way, every other region seems behind where they should be at this point. I am more confident to say those regions will see some bigger jumps.
 

istog

Member
I say at end of July they are going to be 15.2 K total issued visas for EU MAX including AOS, because they are only 2,200 including family from 30700 MAY VB cutoff till 36300 the last VB, that would mean 2K visa left for the rest of EU numbers in august and semptember. And if the quota is 17.2K for EU than EU45XXX would be the endline.
But the EU quota is unknown for years, because it ended current early and the other visas were issued for AF,AS numbers left.
BTW Only my prediction I hope all regions go current.
 
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