485s getting approved as PDs become current ..

S

saras76

Banned
Guys and Gals,

Since the retrogression hit last October we have not seen to many approvals. Most of the approvals are coming in as soon as the PD for those cases becomes current. This just proves that currently there aren't that many backlogged cases with PDs prior to 2002 at most of the service centers. As the PDs move they pick up the few cases that fall under the current PD and approve them. This whole retrogression is in anticipation of the flood of 245i cases from April 01. This has not happened and is not expected to happen till the end of the year. Thats the latest speculation. If this is indeed true then this year should bring relief to 01 and early 02 filers. Hopefully some bill will also get passed in Congress providing much needed relief to PD cases from 2003 and beyond. That is the best case scenario. Lets keep our fingers crossed. The next six months may bring some good news. We just need to keep our eyes on the ball.

Ofcourse, for those that are stuck in the dreaded "Name Check" process. All analysis and speculation goes out the window.

regards,

saras76
 
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saras76 said:
Guys and Gals,

Since the retrogression hit last October we have not seen to many approvals. Most of the approvals are coming in as soon as the PD for those cases becomes current. This just proves that currently there aren't that many backlogged cases with PDs prior to 2002 at most of the service centers. As the PDs move they pick up the few cases that fall under the current PD and approve them. This whole retrogression is in anticipation of the flood of 245i cases from April 01. This has not happened and is not expected to happen till the end of the year. Thats the latest speculation. If this is indeed true then this year should bring relief to 01 and early 02 filers. Hopefully some bill will also get passed in Congress providing much needed relief to PD cases from 2003 and beyond. That is the best case scenario. Lets keep our fingers crossed. The next six months may bring some good news. We just need to keep our eyes on the ball.

Ofcourse, for those that are stuck in the dreaded "Name Check" process. All analysis and speculation goes out the window.

regards,

saras76
Click to expand...

Why we all think that most 245(i) cases filed within April 2001 are not approved, pending in backlog elemination center? If July 2001 (me) and Aug 2001(your) cases are approved then why not April 2001? My understanding is that PD date is retrogrssed because 140/485 filed of PD April 2001 245(i) cases in USCIS between 2004 and 2005. Just a thought. Input welcome. :)
 
That is not true ..

IND77 said:
Why we all think that most 245(i) cases filed within April 2001 are not approved, pending in backlog elemination center? If July 2001 (me) and Aug 2001(your) cases are approved then why not April 2001? My understanding is that PD date is retrogrssed because 140/485 filed of PD April 2001 245(i) cases in USCIS between 2004 and 2005. Just a thought. Input welcome. :)
Click to expand...

IND77,

Your reasoning is logical, however what you are missing is the fact that most of the 245i cases were NON-RIR cases. We are all RIR labor cases. If you check the NON-RIR dates in the labor centers you will find that a lot of them are still stuck in April 01. Most of them have made their way to the Backlog Elimination Centers (BECs). So most of the 245i cases are still stuck in the labor process. That is what I believe from extensive reading of several forums. The DOS and USCIS thought that the BECs will start approving 245i cases by the end of 05 and that they will be flooded in 06. This has not happened. The speculation now is that the 245i cases will hit in mid to late 06. Whatever be the case, one thing is for certain, the 245i cases are going to cause a lot of problems for us. If not now then later on. The only long term solution is to support legislation to increase visa numbers.

regards,

saras76
 
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Can you please tell me what is the current date for india

eb3

please read my signature

i am wating for current approval
 
saras76 said:
IND77,

Your reasoning is logical, however what you are missing is the fact that most of the 245i cases were NON-RIR cases. We are all RIR labor cases. If you check the NON-RIR dates in the labor centers you will find that a lot of them are still stuck in April 01. Most of them have made their way to the Backlog Elimination Centers (BECs). So most of the 245i cases are still stuck in the labor process. That is what I believe from extensive reading of several forums. The DOS and USCIS thought that the BECs will start approving 245i cases by the end of 05 and that they will be flooded in 06. This has not happened. The speculation now is that the 245i cases will hit in mid to late 06. Whatever be the case, one thing is for certain, the 245i cases are going to cause a lot of problems for us. If not now then later on. The only long term solution is to support legislation to increase visa numbers.

regards,

saras76
Click to expand...
Thanks saras76 for your input. Your logic make sense. I also agreee that I have missed RIR and NON-RIR categories. But I am wondering why not only my RIR case of PD July 2001 but also other RIR cases during that period took a long time (almost 3 years) for approval. I recall RIR cases were getting fast approval during first half of 2001, but suddenly processing date stopped at April 2001 for almost 3 years. After processing date move beyond April 2001, then RIR approvals came faster. Of course after that both RIR and NON-RIR cases moved to BEC. Does this indicate that NON-RIR 245(i) cases were processed during that 3 years period ?
 
Good question ...

IND77 said:
Thanks saras76 for your input. Your logic make sense. I also agreee that I have missed RIR and NON-RIR categories. But I am wondering why not only my RIR case of PD July 2001 but also other RIR cases during that period took a long time (almost 3 years) for approval. I recall RIR cases were getting fast approval during first half of 2001, but suddenly processing date stopped at April 2001 for almost 3 years. After processing date move beyond April 2001, then RIR approvals came faster. Of course after that both RIR and NON-RIR cases moved to BEC. Does this indicate that NON-RIR 245(i) cases were processed during that 3 years period ?
Click to expand...

IND77,

I asked the same question in another forum where they were discussing this issue at length. The reply that I got was that not ALL 245i cases were NON RIR. There were still quite a few RIR cases within 245i. I am not sure if this is true but that is what someone with a lot of experience told me. My own reasoning is that there were so many cases (RIR and NON RIR) during that time that it took 2 years for our labor to get approved. There are still a lot of unanswered questions here and I believe no one really has any clear explaination of what is going on. Lets just wait and see what happens in the next few months ..

saras76
 
245(i) predictions

saras - you are doing a good job presenting useful stuff to the 2001 EB3 filers. I read that BEC won't be sending out the 45 day letters until end of june 2006. So those cases won't hit USCIS processing till sep 2006 for concurrent filing. Give about 6 months to a year for 140 approval. So this means they wont deplete the quotas for this year. Is this correct or does USCIS allocate them numbers when they are filed.

The fiscal year for visas ends sep 2006. So why don't the state dept move priority dates to end of 2001 knowing that 245(i) wont have any effect this year. I feel as they kept the dates current for most part in 2004 they should give the late 2001 filers a chance this year. your thoughts? my EB3 PD is Aug 2001.
 
PHSESAaug said:
saras - you are doing a good job presenting useful stuff to the 2001 EB3 filers. I read that BEC won't be sending out the 45 day letters until end of june 2006. So those cases won't hit USCIS processing till sep 2006 for concurrent filing. Give about 6 months to a year for 140 approval. So this means they wont deplete the quotas for this year. Is this correct or does USCIS allocate them numbers when they are filed.

The fiscal year for visas ends sep 2006. So why don't the state dept move priority dates to end of 2001 knowing that 245(i) wont have any effect this year. I feel as they kept the dates current for most part in 2004 they should give the late 2001 filers a chance this year. your thoughts? my EB3 PD is Aug 2001.
Click to expand...

PHSESAaug,

You have raised very relevant questions. I agree with you that 245i cases will not use up many 485 visas this year. I believe the 245i cases will hit the visa quota in early 07 or late 06. Visas are not used up till the 485 is actually approved. So till the 245i cases get their 140s approved and file for 485s, the visas numbers will not get delpleted. The problem is that the DOS will move the dates back as soon as they start seeing 245i cases apply for 485s because they are afraid of those numbers. They will not do any analysis of actually how many 245i cases are actually ready for approval or how many are in the pipe, they will simply move the date back to before April 01 for EB3. The good news is that I do not see this happening till early 07 or late 06. Ofcourse all this is based on current news released by the DOS and USCIS.

What does all this mean for EB3s? Here is what I think will happen -

1. In the next few months, the DOS will move most PDs for EB3s past April 01. I do not see India moving past April 01 till atleast May or June. This is because the USCIS and DOS is convinced that there are a lot of EB3 India PDs of 01 and before. I am not sure if this is true but that is the belief. In the next few months when they edge India EB3s closer to April 01, they will most likely find a lack of demand or less than what they think the demand will be. When this happens they will move India EB3 past April 01 and further maybe into 01 from May to Sept 06. Now, it is possible that there are a lot of India EB3s in 01 but I am not convinced. We will have to wait and see.

2. I see the rest of the world EB3 moving along nicely this fiscal year (till Sept 06). The next few months may be tentative but the dates may become current by summer or even sooner. The DOS will push to use all visas for 06 by Oct 06 so there is going to be a huge push through summer.

3. The nightmare will be in late 06 or 07 when the 245i cases hit. The only solution to this is through legislation. We have to keep our eyes on this. People who do not get through this year may have to wait a while. It is hence important for all of us to support a change to the visa quota numbers.

The truth is that this retrogression is steeped in speculation. The DOS and USCIS have used the pending 245i cases as an excuse to throw the dates back and clean house. When the dates were current, the USCIS service centers approved cases without any regard for RD/ND or PD. In the process they left behind so many unforutante 00,01 and 02 filers while approving thousands of 03 and 04 filers. Realizing this blunder and anticipating the thousands of 245i cases, they went into panic mode and threw the dates back by 5-6 years. This was done to just halt all new filings and get a grip on the situation. Now that 5-6 months have passed since the deep retrogression, they have been able to asses the situation a litte better and have used this opportunity to clean out the really old PDs that had been neglected. The 245i cases were used as an excuse for really deep retrogression. This was primarily done to cover their a** and make sure they approved cases with PDs in 01 and before. In a way this retrogression is a good thing because it makes sure that cases get approved in first in first out basis but it was implemented way to late in the game and they overdid it.

All of the above are my own views. No one really knows what will happen. Lets keep tracking this.

regards,

saras76
 
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Isn't 245i for illegal immigrants, as far as I know visa quotas are country wise.I assume that are very few illegal Indians compares to Mexicans, so how come India is affected and Mexico is not?
 
thank you Saras76

Hello Saras76,

Please keep posting your thoughts...They are not just interesting but also very helpful. I agree with moroni, you have a very interesting point of view.

Thankyou.
regards,
ny
 
Please do not read to much into my views ..

newyorkuser said:
Hello Saras76,

Please keep posting your thoughts...They are not just interesting but also very helpful. I agree with moroni, you have a very interesting point of view.

Thankyou.
regards,
ny
Click to expand...

newyorker,

I appreciate your kind views but please realize that at the end of the day I am just like any other immigrant suffering through this broken system. My views have been formulated over years of following forums and trying to get my case back on track. Please do not read to much into them. I try to provide information which I feel will be helpful but I do not want to falsely raise any hopes. Lets hope my assumptions are correct .. :)

regards,

saras76
 
saras - read into it , helps.

Saras,

hi there, it was not just interesting to read your views, provides some insight ( right or wrong does not matter ), for people like me. You have a point, so keep it going, it helps.

Good luck to all, mine's PD-Oct.2002, and it will be 2008, before I get it.
There's more interesting things out there, enjoy life as your GC waits on ya.


Cheers
R
 
245i impact on India

gcbandwagon said:
Isn't 245i for illegal immigrants, as far as I know visa quotas are country wise.I assume that are very few illegal Indians compares to Mexicans, so how come India is affected and Mexico is not?
Click to expand...

gcbandwagon,

Your concerns are valid. I raised the same questions and found the following answers. Please read the following thread with my post and it will help you understand this mess a little better.

http://boards.immigrationportal.com/showthread.php?t=201187&highlight=245i

regards,

saras76
 
My predicitions seem to be coming true ..

Guys and Gals,

The March bulletin is out and my predictions are on the mark atleast for the March bulletin. I had predicted that DOS and USCIS will nudge most EB3s expect India past April 01 and it was on the money. I also speculated that they will move India EB3 closer to April 01 and that has happened by moving India EB3 to Jan 01. I hope the rest of my predictions come true. I have a strong feeling that they will till atleast Sept 06.

This is good news because similar movements can be expected all the way to July or August atleast. These may even go on till Oct of this year.

Lets hope the rest of my predictions come true also.

For those that haven't seen the bulletin, here is the link -

http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bulletin/bulletin_2794.html

regards,

saras76
 
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I mostly agree with your comments..but differ on one note. There have been lot of approval on NON-RIR front as well...so many 245i applicaitons would have been approved (from labor) long time back. For example take my case, my PD is 05/2003 and NON-RIR and was approved from Philly BPC in november, 2005
So while I cannot predict when April, 01 hurdle is crossed for India, I hope within this quarter. You're PD is just around the cornor..and hope to hear good news from you soon. Good luck!
 
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Saras,

I am a bit surprised by the movement of EB3 (WW) dates past Apr 2001 myself... (Sorry guys I am not trying to hurt anyone) The reason for this is when the illigal alian cases start apprearing as per your calculations in late 06, uscis would be super busy again and they may have to roll back the dates. That wouldn't look good for the 2nd time :confused:

Now for India EB3, we will have to see how many approvals happen in the next month... Lot of approvals would justify presence of many cases in that duration (between 2000-2001) If not many then EB3 India dates could easily pass Apr 01 barrier in April 2006 bulletin... What say ?
 
No surprises here ...

NYImmigrant said:
Saras,

I am a bit surprised by the movement of EB3 (WW) dates past Apr 2001 myself... (Sorry guys I am not trying to hurt anyone) The reason for this is when the illigal alian cases start apprearing as per your calculations in late 06, uscis would be super busy again and they may have to roll back the dates. That wouldn't look good for the 2nd time :confused:

Now for India EB3, we will have to see how many approvals happen in the next month... Lot of approvals would justify presence of many cases in that duration (between 2000-2001) If not many then EB3 India dates could easily pass Apr 01 barrier in April 2006 bulletin... What say ?
Click to expand...

NYImmigrant,

Eb3 World movement was expected. The fact is that 245i cases have not flooded the USCIS the way that they thought they would. This maybe because they are still stuck in labor, maybe because a lot got rejected in the labor stage and never made it to 485 or simply because the DOS may have overestimated the number of pending 245i cases. Any of these is possible. What has happened is that 245i cases have been taken out of the picture for the rest of this fiscal year 06. Or atleast till July-August of this 06. This has resulted in fast movement because there aren't that many 01 PDs out there. I have been following this forum for over 4 years now and remember that a LOT of 00 and 01 PDs got approved in 04 and early 05. I believe there are a lot of 02 PDs out there. If things stay the same then I expect India EB3 to go into 02 by summer. The rest of the world may even become current before Oct 06.

The problems will start after that I think. The DOS and USCIS may throw back the dates in Oct 06 in anticipation of 245i cases. How far back they go this time is anyones guess.

regards,

saras76
 
Interesting Saras. I was of the understanding that the moment the date moves past April, 01 for EB3, we shall see fast movement. You raise a good point. Maybe it does go past only to come back after a few months. I hope there aern't a whole lot of 245i cases left...are there any statistics out somewhere that show how many 245i cases were approved out of the 300K that you mentioned earlier?
 
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