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Visa Bulletin For May 2015

Britsimon said:
Yep - you are late to the party, so you don't know what he said earlier on, and in the end visas did not run out in mid August or at 38XXX. But other than that he "was not so much wrong"....
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I take your last sentence as an expression of "British humor"... :) Truly, I don't see much upside for Raevsky to possible have been more wrong on a consistent basis...
 
n.n. said:
Ok then. Seems that I am really late to the party. This year his estimations are more optimistic and that is why I want to believe that he is competent :)
Nevertheless, I hope for the best.
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Oh really - I haven't seen his predictions for this year - do you have a link for that?
 
n.n. said:
His forum is on the link http://www.govorimpro.us/forum.php
He estimates the final cut-off to be around 42,xxx.

P.S. He uses your ceac data files for his predictions btw :)
http://www.govorimpro.us/выигрыши-в-green-card-лотерее/54269-большой-case-number-dv-2015-есть-шанс-37.html#post1537693
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Thanks. For some reason Google translate refuses to translate anything he types. It translates every other post, but not Raevskyish. I figured out Slonerish when he tried to post in English, but Raevsky's comment elude me still - and my membership application always gets held up so I can't see the jpegs he posts.
 
Google translate won't help. He is writing russian words using english letters. He usually does not use russian letters and google translate cannot handle his texts.
Actually he compared first 8,500 cases month by month to see the tendency of latecomers. As the latecomers still get processed he cannot predict the correct cut-off.
When the DS forms of latecomers don't get processed, then he will predict more precisely (that's what he says).

For now, he predicts something in the range of 42xxx as I already mentioned.
 
n.n. said:
Google translate won't help. He is writing russian words using english letters. He usually does not use russian letters and google translate cannot handle his texts.
Actually he compared first 8,500 cases month by month to see the tendency of latecomers. As the latecomers still get processed he cannot predict the correct cut-off.
When the DS forms of latecomers don't get processed, then he will predict more precisely (that's what he says).

For now, he predicts something in the range of 42xxx as I already mentioned.
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Thanks for the explanations!
 
n.n. said:
Google translate won't help. He is writing russian words using english letters. He usually does not use russian letters and google translate cannot handle his texts.
Actually he compared first 8,500 cases month by month to see the tendency of latecomers. As the latecomers still get processed he cannot predict the correct cut-off.
When the DS forms of latecomers don't get processed, then he will predict more precisely (that's what he says).

For now, he predicts something in the range of 42xxx as I already mentioned.
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Wow wow so my eu predictions, are similar to rajivsky hey :-D
I really miss hes in puts on this forum. No matter how cold he is!
And I bet everyone is feeling the same as me.
I made sure I read all his posts, I think.!
He was a seergat Valuable member.
 
vladek15425 said:
Wow wow so my eu predictions, are similar to rajivsky hey :-D
I really miss hes in puts on this forum. No matter how cold he is!
And I bet everyone is feeling the same as me.
I made sure I read all his posts, I think.!
He was a seergat Valuable member.
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Well, I don't, for one... :) Even though, now being less emotionally involved, one might actually enjoy it a bit more this time around, who knows. Might be someone should start posting that visa will run out in EU no later than middle of August, even for those folks who had received their interview dates, as all those will be cancelled.... (note: this is an insider joke, as we unfortunately had experienced last year in its seriously meant version)
Seriously, with the much higher level of knowledge and better data this year, he would be less able to cause havoc, even if he tried as hard as ever.
 
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EURO2014 said:
Well, I don't, for one... :) Even though, now being less emotionally involved, one might actually enjoy it a bit more this time around, who knows. Might be someone should start posting that visa will run out in EU no later than middle of August, even for those folks who had received their interview dates, as all those will be cancelled.... (note: this is an insider joke, as we unfortunately had experienced last year in its seriously meant version)
Seriously, with the much higher level of knowledge and better data this year, he would be less able to cause havoc, even if he tried as hard as ever.
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Well my self im over tge thrill he gave us, and Like I said, I might sound silly but I miss his posts, even the arguments he had with simon. Sloner and others...
He was part of our dv experien ce, he was our boogy man ;-)
Im eager ti know hia predictions, but as simon I couldnt translate his post on the russian forum.
Nice to see you ariund again euro
 
n.n. said:
Google translate won't help. He is writing russian words using english letters. He usually does not use russian letters and google translate cannot handle his texts.
Actually he compared first 8,500 cases month by month to see the tendency of latecomers. As the latecomers still get processed he cannot predict the correct cut-off.
When the DS forms of latecomers don't get processed, then he will predict more precisely (that's what he says).

For now, he predicts something in the range of 42xxx as I already mentioned.
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I think they will soon rise to the level of Dv2014. Slight lag. I think the next newsletter will be 36xxx-37ххх.
 
n.n. said:
I am quite new to all these stories, but I ran through raevsky's forum. As far as I understand, he was claiming that cut-off should have been around 38,xxx. When the final cut-off was 40,150 he said that there would not be enough visas and actually DS ran out of visas in the middle of August. So, actually, as far as I understand he was not so much wrong. Cut off in the range of 39,000 should have been more accurate in DV2014. What sense does it make to have cut-off number at 40,xxx when you run out of available visas around 38,xxx?
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They ended in September. https://web.archive.org/web/2014082...kara.org.tr/consular/english/schedule_dv.html In Warsaw 15 sep 2014 http://greencard.by/upload/iblock/e70/DV Appt Sep 2014.pdf When was the last scheduled interview. Interviews could be greater if they treated DS-230 that were sent later than June 1st.
 
Sloner said:
They ended in September. https://web.archive.org/web/2014082...kara.org.tr/consular/english/schedule_dv.html In Warsaw 15 sep 2014 http://greencard.by/upload/iblock/e70/DV Appt Sep 2014.pdf When was the last scheduled interview. Interviews could be greater if they treated DS-230 that were sent later than June 1st.
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The final VB and interviews were scheduled based on DS230s completed by July 1. It was taking 2 to 3 weeks to process DS230 at that point - so I don't think there can be many cases that were missed due to late submission of the DS230. A handful perhaps.

As for September interviews being few in number - that is not really a surprise given that EU had zero VB increase from August to September. No mystery - and not what Raevsky predicted.
 
Sensei-san said:
Britsimon-san once taught me that one of the finest British jokes is to to pull someone by a leg.
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Pulling someone leg is indeed a favorite passtime in England although as I might have explained the saying comes (arguably) from the old days of execution by hanging. Hanging in those days was from the back of a cart - and the drop was not enough to cause instant death. So - an act of mercy by family members or hired hands ("hangers on") was to pull the legs of the person being executed to avoid prolonging the death. Nice huh.

Hangmen also sold the rope in pieces as souvenirs - hence the saying "money for old rope".

Gotta love trivia....
 
Britsimon said:
Pulling someone leg is indeed a favorite passtime in England although as I might have explained the saying comes (arguably) from the old days of execution by hanging. Hanging in those days was from the back of a cart - and the drop was not enough to cause instant death. So - an act of mercy by family members or hired hands ("hangers on") was to pull the legs of the person being executed to avoid prolonging the death. Nice huh.

Hangmen also sold the rope in pieces as souvenirs - hence the saying "money for old rope".

Gotta love trivia....
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This is very interesting.
 
Hello :) I have seen from other posts that you are predicting the cut off for the oceanic region to come in at 1580. Are you able to say how accurate this is estimation is? As in, if someone has a number in the 1400’s, do you think it is 100% certain that they will have their number called? Or would it be more accurate to say that the 1400’s have a 90% chance, or 50%, and so on? Sorry for the pedantic question! I’m just slightly nervous as I’d originally thought that my number would definitely be called and, on such basis, am making substantial life plans to move!!!!! Cheers x
 
Britsimon said:
Pulling someone leg is indeed a favorite passtime in England although as I might have explained the saying comes (arguably) from the old days of execution by hanging. Hanging in those days was from the back of a cart - and the drop was not enough to cause instant death. So - an act of mercy by family members or hired hands ("hangers on") was to pull the legs of the person being executed to avoid prolonging the death. Nice huh.

Hangmen also sold the rope in pieces as souvenirs - hence the saying "money for old rope".

Gotta love trivia....
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Simon, if you love trivia, then I have to tell you that this is one of the few explanations for the origin of the phrase, not the only one. They may all be apocryphal, rather like the explanation for why the English use the two finger "salute" which has nothing to do with the French wars or the archers. Another popular explanation is that the expression has its origins in the criminal world of 18th and 19th century London. In those days street robbers often worked in gangs of two. One would trip up the unsuspecting victim and the other would remove his money and other valuables while he was lying on the ground. The robber didn’t literally pull the victim’s leg but caused him to stumble and fall and then lose his valuables. If your leg is pulled now, you don’t lose your money but you might betray your ignorance and lose your temper, or face.
 
MatthewDermot said:
Hello :) I have seen from other posts that you are predicting the cut off for the oceanic region to come in at 1580. Are you able to say how accurate this is estimation is? As in, if someone has a number in the 1400’s, do you think it is 100% certain that they will have their number called? Or would it be more accurate to say that the 1400’s have a 90% chance, or 50%, and so on? Sorry for the pedantic question! I’m just slightly nervous as I’d originally thought that my number would definitely be called and, on such basis, am making substantial life plans to move!!!!! Cheers x
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Not quite sure where the CN1,580 would be compellingly deduced from. At least when you look at recent historical OC numbers, there does not seem to be an overly convincing basis for it:
https://docs.zoho.com/sheet/riphone.do?rid=xmy6ue226758a2abd4068b3b9de3c988cbea1
Obviously, there is no 100% certainty in a lottery within a lottery system, given that last year OC ended with CN1,450 as you well know. Hence, CN1,401 and CN1,499 could possibly well result in different outcomes, depending where you are personally lined up right now. In any case, don't make any life changing decisions before you hold the actual visa in your hand, the KCC advice on this point is rather clear and specific.
Best of luck to you!
 
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