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Visa Bulletin For May 2015

Britsimon said:
Yerevan should be fine with that. 6 months is good, 3 months might be OK. If it is more recent and it is a gift from a family member it is wise to have a letter from that family member saying it is a non repayable gift to aid your immigration.
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Thanks a lot!
 
How up to date does a ds260 have to be? In other words since I submitted the ds260 in may last year I have moved country? Should I update it? Or is it fair to say in an interview situation that it was the most up to date info I had at the time of submiting? I obviously will have to provide police clearance from the new country but does the ds260 need updating? Thanks
 
CP1983 said:
How up to date does a ds260 have to be? In other words since I submitted the ds260 in may last year I have moved country? Should I update it? Or is it fair to say in an interview situation that it was the most up to date info I had at the time of submiting? I obviously will have to provide police clearance from the new country but does the ds260 need updating? Thanks
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Where do you plan to do your interview - new country? You will at least have to let KCC know where you are if so, so they can schedule your interview at the correct consulate. Some people seem to think you need to update your DS260 every time you sneeze - if I were you I wouldn't bother (although if you are contacting KCC anyway you can ask them about this as well), but as you say make sure you have the police certificate.
 
Britsimon said:
Yup. That is the same guy that came in here with various scenarios to feedback to his readers. That, and the fact that he adds together the numbers of the regional case numbers (inferring that is meaningful) makes me think he has no idea what is going on...
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He made a logical conclusion. There are no specific countries and the forecast made much easier.
June 2010 - 1300. Max - 1500
June 2011 - 1300. Max - 1400
June 2013 - 1300. Max - 1500
June 2014 - 1425. Max - 1750
June 2015 - 1075. Max - +300 and 1375.

 
kellie_jane said:
Hello again- is there a place where you've posted your calculations? My other half wants to get an idea of how you guys are making your estimations.
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Sure, I've done it a couple of times. Here's the most recent. I posted links to the sources of my numbers here.

Bear in mind that I'm looking back to project forward. My predictions rely on two things:

  1. DV4ROGER's estimation of a quota of 831 visas for OC.

  2. Last year's rate of visas issued per CN. If that rate increases, the final cutoff goes down. Hence my trying to read the entrails of the CEAC data. If it helps any, the rate has been increasing steadily over the past few years. To give you some idea, if the rate increases from 0.526 to 0.538, the final cutoff would be 1545 instead of 1580. (That's the difference between me being in and out of the race.)
Hope that helped.

Edit: For what it's worth, the issued rate so far is 0.3676 visas per CN. This time last year, the rate was 0.3239, which might go some way to explaining why the visa bulletin has been slower in progressing vs. last year, despite the higher quota. Or it might not.
 
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Sloner said:
He made a logical conclusion. There are no specific countries and the forecast made much easier.
June 2010 - 1300. Max - 1500
June 2011 - 1300. Max - 1400
June 2013 - 1300. Max - 1500
June 2014 - 1425. Max - 1750
June 2015 - 1075. Max - +300 and 1375.
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I would have thought that you of all people would realize the dangers of looking at previous years....
 
connectedspace said:
Sure, I've done it a couple of times. Here's the most recent. I posted links to the sources of my numbers here.

Bear in mind that I'm looking back to project forward. My predictions rely on two things:

  1. DV4ROGER's estimation of a quota of 831 visas for OC.

  2. Last year's rate of visas issued per CN. If that rate increases, the final cutoff goes down. Hence my trying to read the entrails of the CEAC data. If it helps any, the rate has been increasing steadily over the past few years. To give you some idea, if the rate increases from 0.526 to 0.538, the final cutoff would be 1545 instead of 1580. (That's the difference between me being in and out of the race.)
Hope that helped.

Edit: For what it's worth, the issued rate so far is 0.3676 visas per CN. This time last year, the rate was 0.3239, which might go some way to explaining why the visa bulletin has been slower in progressing vs. last year, despite the higher quota. Or it might not.
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Thank you very much for sharing all your work! And I'll have everything crossed for your number scraping in!
 
Sloner said:
He made a logical conclusion. There are no specific countries and the forecast made much easier.
June 2010 - 1300. Max - 1500
June 2011 - 1300. Max - 1400
June 2013 - 1300. Max - 1500
June 2014 - 1425. Max - 1750
June 2015 - 1075. Max - +300 and 1375.
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This is like driving a car while looking out through the back window - same likelihood of success... ;)
 
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SusieQQQ said:
Where do you plan to do your interview - new country? You will at least have to let KCC know where you are if so, so they can schedule your interview at the correct consulate. Some people seem to think you need to update your DS260 every time you sneeze - if I were you I wouldn't bother (although if you are contacting KCC anyway you can ask them about this as well), but as you say make sure you have the police certificate.
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No I am going to do the interview In my home country. I am going to fly home for a couple of weeks if I get current. So I emigrated to country X. Now I moved to country Y. But on my ds260 I only gave info about country X. It states nothing about my recent move on ds260. I only moved as recently as January. You think just leave it off the ds260 and state it during interview?

Also my partner lives in the states - h1. It is my intention to go there on esta visa for 8-9 weeks or so before I travel to my home country for interview (again if current). Will this cause me any issues during interview? Thanks Susie
 
I don't think you need to update the DS in that case, and I can't see that travel to the U.S. would cause any issues, I myself travelled to the U.S. while awaiting my DV interview.

Just bear in mind that you will need to do your medicals in the same country you interview, so ensure you make enough time to travel there before the interview to complete this.
 
SusieQQQ said:
I don't think you need to update the DS in that case, and I can't see that travel to the U.S. would cause any issues, I myself travelled to the U.S. while awaiting my DV interview.

Just bear in mind that you will need to do your medicals in the same country you interview, so ensure you make enough time to travel there before the interview to complete this.
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Thanks for that Susie. Ye I am aware of the medical procedure in same country. I will be home for a couple of of weeks to get it done. Dont think there would be any chance of being put on AP at all....it just need to hit the magic number now...easier said than done!
 
I think next VB will clear the things out for EU region just an other 25 days and we will all see what's waiting for high EU numbers if the number reaches 39K then I'll keep my hope with my high CN which is like last hundreds of 42K. This is gonna be a long 25 days for me to wait. I don't know what to expect if a 4K jump happens in next VB good luck to all with high CN's. Life keeps going on, i wish best for everyone with hope for future
 
I think EU will go higher than last year with plus minus 2k!
If not than raevsky senario might happen.
And than we might see disaster on EU last cuttoffs.

Ps: @Sloner what's your finaks for EU btw?
 
Based on absolutely nothing but a hunch. 38k May, 41-42k June, 0 July. And I would imagine those type of numbers (or very close to them) would be very heavy favourites in a betting race!
 
brunash82 said:
September will be CURRENT for EU I can bet...
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You are going to need to see 39k in the next VB for that to happen. I would like to agree with you but I cant. I think it will stay with the same 3,500 - 4000 average per month and stop for july.
 
brunash82 said:
September will be CURRENT for EU I can bet...
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You don't seem to consider much third-party input, do you? This increasingly sounds like whistling in the dark...
Don't get me wrong - I certainly wish you were right, unfortunately this is a rather generous bet you are offering. Best of luck!
 
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