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Visa Bulletin For May 2015

"So, I have to say, Sloner is about right in what he said. I think they will try to get to 40 by August. But when he says not more than 42xxx, that us only about 1200 selectees less than current - and our guessing can't be so precise until the end (because the backlog is hiding the final response rate)."

Britsimon - So you EU will hit 40k in June VB (interview in August) correct? And potentially zero to a small jump in last VB in july?
 
CP1983 said:
"So, I have to say, Sloner is about right in what he said. I think they will try to get to 40 by August. But when he says not more than 42xxx, that us only about 1200 selectees less than current - and our guessing can't be so precise until the end (because the backlog is hiding the final response rate)."

Britsimon - So you EU will hit 40k in June VB (interview in August) correct? And potentially zero to a small jump in last VB in july?
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Possibly - that is what they did last year - and the pace they are taking for EU is on target for that approach. PLus, there will be a small number of DS260 backlog cases, and so on, so that whatever interview capacity/visa availability remains for September could be taken up without further VB movement in the final VB. There are also, of course rescheduled appointments, clearing AP cases and so on - so there will be visas issued in September even without VB movement (quota allowing).
 
CP1983 said:
what % confidence would you hold if you were sitting on EU40,4XX? (i wont hold you to it I swear).
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I hate doing percentage guesses - but pretty highly confident - in fact a lot higher than I would have been a few months ago.
 
I think the June number for SA is the lower in dv visa lottery history.
It would be good see more comments from people of that region.
 
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EURO2014 said:
At this stage of the game for the EU region, I'd try to identify potential impediments for the three VB's remaining - July, August & September. As I see it, these could possibly result from two specific areas of concern: a) hard Regional Limit and b) Regional Diversity Objective.
Ad a): the regional limit for EU is not published, yet we confirmed in DV 2014 that it does exist. You only know once it has hit you, as occurred in September of last year, when the number remained at 40,150, as previously announced for August. The 19.5K number you referred to is simply an internal calculation from this forum, not an official number.
Ad b) Beyond giving out 50+K DV Visa/Year KCC has to maintain Regional Diversity as key objective, as defined by law. With the other two large DV regions, Africa and Asia, in serious trouble this year (due to different reasons, yet this is another subject altogether), KCC has to ensure that EU won't eat the cake by its own and, doing so, messes up diversity targets between the DV regions, set in advance. This is separate from the above-mentioned pre-set hard limit - here the current lack of progress in other regions would impact Europe, i.e. Africa and Asia will have to be given the chance to catch up.

Therefore, in terms of potential impediments for EU participants with high CN's: there certainly is a possible scenario in which Europe will progress by approx. 2,000 - 4,000 for each of the coming two VB's, July and August, and then may remain at this same number for September, meaning that no additional interviews may be scheduled at EU US consulates during that final month of the DV 2015 year. Makes sense?
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it is hard for me to judge on making sense for this, as I think, I am not so informed in the DV process as you are.. Thanks for the reply.
 
Britsimon said:
Up to now, and including this VB, the interview slots have been combining from backlog cases. I think that will reduce somewhat (varied by region) for the next VB, and pretty much disappear by the end.

The response rate up to now has looked lower up to now, partially because of the backlog cases (I.e. We can't tell a late submission from a non response until the last CEAC file). But, a low response rate would speed up VB movement and increase the final cutoff above what we had previously imagined. For EU, a low response rate could see us well into the 40 - 45 range, perhaps even current (EU being the least over selected region).

So, I have to say, Sloner is about right in what he said. I think they will try to get to 40 by August. But when he says not more than 42xxx, that us only about 1200 selectees less than current - and our guessing can't be so precise until the end (because the backlog is hiding the final response rate).

Even a broken clock is right twice a day...
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Thanks, Simon! So is it hard to estimate now what is the risky range for EU and what is the pretty much safe zone?
 
Candeu said:
it is hard for me to judge on making sense for this, as I think, I am not so informed in the DV process as you are.. Thanks for the reply.
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You are very welcome. As long as you strategy does not necessitate EU to become Current in 2015, you may be all set. There are two VB's with noticeable CN increases left for Europe and then you'll know where you'll stand with your number. Good luck to you!
 
Candeu said:
According to Simon the backlog has almost been cleared. So I guess the matter is not the slow processing, but rather low response rate. Do you agree Simon?
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In May was scheduled interview those who submit the form until 25 November. In last year in June were won with forms for March. Given the huge number of latecomers to be accurate. I guess this year in June, will be appointed with sending until February. Given the huge number of latecomers to be accurate. There are two types of events:
1. They are accelerated in the processing of the questionnaires and then the number will creep slowly.
2. They are not accelerated, but the number is raised. Then maybe will current, and in September or August visa exhausted. Who was late, he did not have time.

The main reason for this disorder. 1. Reduction of staff in order to save the State Department budget. 2. But while choosing 140,000 and 125,000. Of these, a lot of garbage that is not needed and will not get an interview. They spend 20% of time in the shuffle.

Simon took a job in the KFC and bring order.:cool:
 
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EURO2014 said:
You are very welcome. As long as you strategy does not necessitate EU to become Current in 2015, you may be all set. There are two VB's with noticeable CN increases left for Europe and then you'll know where you'll stand with your number. Good luck to you!
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Thank you!
My number is around EU39,600.
 
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