Regarding confirmation numbers

[bearbear]

Quick question. I tried searching the forums here and haven't been able to find an answer. Hopefully someone can help me understand.

On the DV lottery website, it states the following:

"Entrants should keep their confirmation number until at least September 30, 2017."

Say I check and May 3rd and I am unsuccessful. Does this mean that there is a possibility that I may still be successful up until September 30 next year (given that I'm being instructed to hold on to that number)?

Perhaps I'm getting caught up in the wording here but I note that this says 'entrants' and not 'selectees'.

 

[SusieQQQ]

Quick question. I tried searching the forums here and haven't been able to find an answer. Hopefully someone can help me understand.

On the DV lottery website, it states the following:

"Entrants should keep their confirmation number until at least September 30, 2017."

Say I check and May 3rd and I am unsuccessful. Does this mean that there is a possibility that I may still be successful up until September 30 next year (given that I'm being instructed to hold on to that number)?

Perhaps I'm getting caught up in the wording here but I note that this says 'entrants' and not 'selectees'.

Two reasons:

- there is occasionally a second draw, usually around October of the same year as the May draw. It doesn't always happen, and when it does, it's for a relatively small number of people.
- for those who are selected, they will need the original confirmation number to log back into the same site to get their interview letters. They need to be able to do that as long as visas are available to be issued, i.e. until Sept 30 2017..

 

[bearbear]

Many thanks, SuzieQQQ!

Just out of curiosity, under what circumstances would there be a second draw? Would it be to replace the selectees who either did not pursue the visa/did not 'pass' the interview? Do they re-run the lottery to backfill those places?

 

[SusieQQQ]

Many thanks, SuzieQQQ!

Just out of curiosity, under what circumstances would there be a second draw? Would it be to replace the selectees who either did not pursue the visa/did not 'pass' the interview? Do they re-run the lottery to backfill those places?

We don't know exactly the details as these draws are so small we seldom get to know of selectees, but it does seem to be in years when it looks like they will under-fill the quota. Although they will not have had any/many actual visa interviews by October, they will have a reasonable estimate of likely responses for interview via DS260 submissions.

Remember that they usually draw well above the 50k available visas initially anyway to compensate in advance for those who do not proceed or get denied.

 

[bearbear]

With the risk of totally derailing the original topic of this thread, I hope it's OK to ask some more questions about your reply.

Obviously it's not an exact science. If they draw above the 50k by say, 1k per region, does this mean there is a possibility that a visa will be denied if they meet the quota, even if the selectee meets all of the requirements? In other words, is it possible to go through the entire process and have a valid request for a visa, only to be denied because the total quota had been met? Or is there some flexibility with the 50k quota?

Many thanks for your replies, Suzie. xx

 

[Britsimon]

With the risk of totally derailing the original topic of this thread, I hope it's OK to ask some more questions about your reply.

Obviously it's not an exact science. If they draw above the 50k by say, 1k per region, does this mean there is a possibility that a visa will be denied if they meet the quota, even if the selectee meets all of the requirements? In other words, is it possible to go through the entire process and have a valid request for a visa, only to be denied because the total quota had been met? Or is there some flexibility with the 50k quota?

Many thanks for your replies, Suzie. xx

The 50K isn't precise. In previous years it has been a bit above and a bit below the 50K. The "extra" visas come from the allowance that is set aside for NACARA.

In the last couple of years, people have been selected and never got a chance for an interview. Cases are processed in numeric order, so at some point visas can be exhausted. It isn't always like that, but we have seen significant shortfalls in DV2014 and DV2015.

 

[SusieQQQ]

With the risk of totally derailing the original topic of this thread, I hope it's OK to ask some more questions about your reply.

Obviously it's not an exact science. If they draw above the 50k by say, 1k per region, does this mean there is a possibility that a visa will be denied if they meet the quota, even if the selectee meets all of the requirements? In other words, is it possible to go through the entire process and have a valid request for a visa, only to be denied because the total quota had been met? Or is there some flexibility with the 50k quota?

Many thanks for your replies, Suzie. xx

Technically there are 55k total visas, taking into account the Nacara flexibility. Once above that level though there is no flexibility - it is law that that is the maximum so yes, and they do warn about this, technically they will stop issuing visas when the limit has been reached even before the end of the fiscal year;. There have also been a few years where individual countries have hit the country limit (7% of total) and visa issuance was consequently stopped for those countries for the remainder of the fiscal year. This is quite rare though.

 

[bearbear]

Jeez, it would be pretty rough to go through the process of selection, get all of your paperwork together and then find out the country quota had been reached. Obviously, rules are rules, but still a huge emotionally exhausting process.

A big thank you to you both... your insight into the entire DV process and your dedication to these forums is amazing!