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October 2017 Visa Bulletin

Discussion in 'Lottery Visas - DV' started by Xarthisius, Sep 12, 2017.

  1. Britsimon

    Britsimon Super Moderator


    I'd agree that it's bad karma. You can't do anything about it anyway - so forget about it and focus on your own case.
     
  2. Xarthisius

    Xarthisius Member

    Monthly visa issuances for August have been released today. I've made a couple of simple charts showing those stats available here: https://dvcharts.xarthisius.xyz/ if anyone's interested.
     
    Sihem, just_a_tech, DV4ROGER and 2 others like this.
  3. Britsimon

    Britsimon Super Moderator

    Thanks dude.

    For those that doubt that DV2017 visas are exhausted, take a look at this data. It shows that despite slow issuances in July and August (because regions had gone current in May) 6 months processing was able to create 30k issuances. So - is it likely that the first 5 months of the year accounted for nearly 20k? Sure it is likely.
     
  4. Pierre82

    Pierre82 Well-Known Member

    Thanks for sharing and looks very interesting
     
  5. just_a_tech

    just_a_tech New Member

    Whoa, it's amazing. As @Britsimon mentioned, this pretty much seems like a screw up by DOS for making current since May. 8K visas just in May, wow....
     
  6. sergeykrd

    sergeykrd New Member

    Hi Britsimon and all! I'm from Russia and my guess about why the number of participants has doubled is again a political climate. People fed up with government and look for ways to escape the country. Not sure if agencies could impact this tendency.
    My number is in 2018EU15xxx and currently I'm holding a valid visa, so looking towards AOS process.
     
  7. Sm1smom

    Sm1smom Super Moderator

    What kind of visa do you currently have?
     
  8. Britsimon

    Britsimon Super Moderator

    Yep. They decide how many are left to process based on DS submissions. I know of cases where people were submitting their DS260s (and subsequently being scheduled), right up until AUGUST. People were still getting married and having babies. Remember also they had a 2nd draw in September - so those selectees probably took some time to respond.

    So when they announced the regions as current in MARCH 9th, it seemed reckless and as we now now - it was reckless.
     
    just_a_tech likes this.
  9. sergeykrd

    sergeykrd New Member

    It's L1
     
    Sm1smom likes this.
  10. Britsimon

    Britsimon Super Moderator

    Political feeling (barring revolution in the streets) doesn't DOUBLE the selectees in one DV cycle. It takes organization to make that happen.
     
  11. DV4ROGER

    DV4ROGER Active Member

    No, and no.
    I considered the decision a sensible one back in March, and I still do. Also, I doubt very much that DV-2017 will see a 50k total in the books. Back in CEAC times we had some 16k issued visas up to March 1. That's a long shot to "visas exhausted."
     
  12. SusieQQQ

    SusieQQQ Well-Known Member

    So ...how do you account for the instruction to stop issuing visas because they're exhausted?! Do you just think they're lying?
     
    Last edited: Sep 27, 2017
  13. DV4ROGER

    DV4ROGER Active Member

    I only look at numbers and I'm not really up to speed re these instructions. I also can't comment on policy. I just find it extremely hard to believe that we can get anywhere close to 55k. That's what "exhausted" means (to me).

    The data for Asia shows a huge number of AP clearances in August. So, are we talking about exhausted Iranian visas? That's clearly possible. The one report I read in this forum was a Asian AOS case with August 30 interview w/o visa issuance that possibly lost their visa number at the end of the month.
     
  14. SusieQQQ

    SusieQQQ Well-Known Member

    They've stopped the program for DV2017 as the limit of 50k (per their wording) has been reached. AOS and AP cases are all being denied.

    Here's an embassy notice https://tr.usembassy.gov/shortcode/...-dv-program-reached-mandated-numerical-limit/
    AOS cases are being denied with similar letters (obviously without talking about AP
     
  15. Britsimon

    Britsimon Super Moderator

    I strongly disagree. Not a long shot at all. Let's say we had 16k. Add in the 30k we know were issued from March to August, that's 46k. Add in 1k Aos. So - do you really think it's hard to imagine 3k extra visas in September and perhaps the 16K being more like 17 or 18. Hardly a long shot at all. And do you really think they would be so suddenly stopping visas and AOS cases on the same day. Feels like we hit a brick wall - not a fanciful whim. And reckless it most certainly was. Every month the VB progression ensures careful progression of around 4.5 to 5k issued visas per month. It's a carefully well planned exercise. Then they went CRAZY in May issuing 8400 visas in a month (PLUS whatever AP cases went in the pot that month). It was like the wild west.

    ALL embassies are reporting the same thing. ALL Field offices. All regions. Sorry you find it hard to believe, but it happened. And it shouldn't have. That is a monumental screwup in anyone's books.
     
  16. SusieQQQ

    SusieQQQ Well-Known Member

    It was a screwup yes, but I'm still not convinced it was monumental. We all know that the number of visas typically issued in the last few weeks of the FY is a very small percentage of the year's issuance. It's really horrible for the people involved, but it's likely to be in the hundreds rather than thousands of people affected - which is (to be blunt) a rounding error when you're talking 50k - not "monumental".
     
  17. Britsimon

    Britsimon Super Moderator

    Not having visas for cases finishing AP or rescheduled is understandable. BUT the sudden stop on AOS cases was AWFUL.
     
  18. SusieQQQ

    SusieQQQ Well-Known Member

    Is there legally a way to deny one without doing the same to the other, though? Perhaps they should start reserving visas when they schedule AOS interviews the same way they do for CP as a way of getting round it.
    Though.... I'm not really sure it's any more awful than someone who's been waiting on AP for months, then gets told that they're denied for no more visas. In neither case does the applicant really have control over the timing. And, not always but certainly more than someone on AP in CP, AOSers often have a plan B or at least a chance of one.
    Rescheduling is more of an at your own risk kind of thing, and I know a number of embassy websites do warn people about the risks of rescheduling.

    I DO think that if they stuff up on visas like this and people are denied through no fault of their own that their fees should at least be refunded.
     
    Sihem likes this.
  19. Britsimon

    Britsimon Super Moderator

    Agreed on the refunds - some people will have spent thousands of dollars only to see the FO arrogantly bundle all their work to the last minute, and KCC to not allocate enough slots into AMSWEB. We have seen closing AP cases being told no visas, but we have never seen the shutdown on AOS.
     
  20. sergeykrd

    sergeykrd New Member

    My two cents... I checked one Russian forum and Russia's Case Numbers are distributed from small to big numbers. The highest for Ukraine I've seen is 17***. So, the situation is somehow similar to previous year(s). It would be fair to assume that the density will decrease after U2 are exhausted after ~18000.
     

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