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October 2017 Visa Bulletin

Discussion in 'Lottery Visas - DV' started by Xarthisius, Sep 12, 2017.

  1. danny keane

    danny keane New Member

    Btw, Lowest CN i've seen for Turkey is 0XXX, and the highest is 39XXX. Cases are also equally seperated between these numbers. Don't know if this info means something to your cap theory for Turkey @Britsimon
     
    Last edited: Sep 19, 2017
  2. Britsimon

    Britsimon Super Moderator


    As Susie pointed out earlier the political situation is obviously a factor in terms of motivation. BUT it is the scale of the change in one DV cycle that is surprising. Let's say Turkey "only" doubled the entries. That means there are at least 250,000 additional people entering the lottery (including derivatives). That seems a lot without some "enterprise" enabling/publicizing the process.

    As for your number, it is in itself interesting. It shows that Turkey is present to at least the final 15/20% of cases - which suggests the Turkey entries doubled, and not too much more. Your chances for interview rest with EU as a whole. Your number is slightly above the range I consider safe for EU (37XXX), but Russia and Turkey are a wildcard, so I really don't know what will happen this year. In January we will be able to confirm the highest selected numbers BUT won't have the same level of CEAC data that really helps understand the status.
     
  3. Britsimon

    Britsimon Super Moderator

    Ity suggests the cap (if applied at all) wasn't applied until quite late in the process.
     
  4. SusieQQQ

    SusieQQQ Well-Known Member

    Yeah Russia doesn't naturally seem to provide any explanation - things are tough, but they've been bad for a while, and they didn't deteriorate rapidly like Turkey. And I could be wrong, but the agent theory doesn't sound likely to me either - agents typically play a bigger presence in countries with a combination of a less educated population and less internet connectivity than Russia has.
     
    just_a_tech likes this.
  5. Britsimon

    Britsimon Super Moderator

    It isn't about effect on capped versus non capped. It is about the effect on the region as a whole. Yes a capped country has a high concentration of selectees in the lower numbers and then suddenly stops leaving a larger number of holes from that point forward. A non capped country, as you said, gets evenly distributed throughout the number range.

    Below I am linking the 2015 and 2016 density charts. If you look at EU you can see when the U2 countries are capped. It shows that EU had around 20 - 23% of holes throughout the range for pre-draw disqualification. Then when U2 caps stop those two countries the density roughly halves. That means the two U2 countries submitted half of the total EU entries. Once we are past their cutoff point, the pace of the EU VB progression can, theoretically, double.

    http://britsimonsays.com/dv2015-analysis/

    http://britsimonsays.com/dv2016-analysis/
     
    just_a_tech likes this.
  6. danny keane

    danny keane New Member


    My CN is an early 38k so i'm somewhat hopeful. We'll see..

    Thank you for the detailed info @Britsimon
     
  7. Britsimon

    Britsimon Super Moderator

    There has been an uptick in "organized" interest in the lottery in Russia for some time. Moscow introduced some counter measures. They are the only embassy that places about 50% of their cases on AP before the interview even takes place. They are doing "something" to combat the fraud and it is clearly at organized levels.

    https://ru.usembassy.gov/embassy-consulates/st-petersburg/visas/visa-lottery-scam-alert/

    It is also obvious that organizations will look for new markets when hounded out of one country. So - a thwarted organization in the Ukraine would look to their bordering countries of Russia and perhaps even gaze across the Black Sea to Turkey to set up shop. It's not so far fetched.

    https://uz.usembassy.gov/visas/immigrant-visas/immigrant-visas-diversity-visa-program/

    https://cis.org/Seminara/New-OIG-Report-Highlights-Rampant-Diversity-Visa-Fraud-Ukraine
     
  8. SusieQQQ

    SusieQQQ Well-Known Member

    Ah - if it's the type of "agency" entering people without their knowledge, as this seems to be, then yes it's a reasonable explanation.
     
  9. Britsimon

    Britsimon Super Moderator

    I remember spotting the rise of selectees in Ghana in my early immigration.com days. I noticed the massive increase in entries from 2010 onwards, the correlated massive decrease in derivative rates and I made the connection to agents. People in the Ghana threads denied knowledge of agents vehemently. But later I started hearing of DV lottery "stands" in the street and the agents involvement was confirmed. The increase in refusal rates at Ghana are a direct result of the agent activity, to say nothing of the financial blackmail that people have gone through.

    Eerily similar.
     
  10. SusieQQQ

    SusieQQQ Well-Known Member

    I can't see Russians going to "stands" - those are more popular in places with more difficult internet access, hence my initial comment. Plus, I think Russians are generally pretty wise to scams in a face to face situation like that. But gangs harvesting identification details and entering without applicants' knowledeg, that I can accept re Russia. That kind of thing would also explain why people deny knowledge of agents - as the ones who are on the forums initially are those that have entered on their own. Later, the supposed "winners" start showing up with concerns about stuff having been entered wrong because the agent got their details off Facebook, etc.
     
  11. Britsimon

    Britsimon Super Moderator

    Yeah agreed, it may not be stand, but it is pretty likely to be "agents".
     
  12. danny keane

    danny keane New Member

    New instruction about submitting old photos is another factor also. It will effect the density of the cases ofc. @Britsimon has a post about this matter in his own blog.

    But it seems cases will not get disqualified for submitting the same photograph. So do we have any right to object this as a higher case selectee? Because they should be disqualified according to the new instructions. As you said in his blog post, higher CN get a chance if they disqualify those submittions. So this matter is very important for people with high CN like me.

    If they won't disquailify these cases, it won't be fair imo. Becasue applicants who read the new instructions has submitted their photos according to that.
     
  13. Lezraf

    Lezraf New Member

    The disqualification of old pictures submitters would have increased the threshold not deceased it, I think it highly depends on the embassy and the winner (I guess a winner with a good background/education could probably not be disqualified because of the picture)
     
  14. Britsimon

    Britsimon Super Moderator

    They did not disqualify the cases for that reason, so there are no holes. And no you can't object.
     
  15. SusieQQQ

    SusieQQQ Well-Known Member

    How do you know they won't disqualify them at interview? People have been disqualified at interview on the basis of their photos before, even when the photo validator had accepted the photos. And anyway how can you "object" on same vague idea of "this anonymous guy said on the internet ...."?
     
  16. just_a_tech

    just_a_tech New Member

    Since the agent thing was brought up, I remembered a story of one turkish guy who had GC. I once asked him how he got his GC and he told me that he once paid about $30 for a company to apply for GC on his behalf. He wasn't selected that year and he never bothered with it. He kept going on with his life, university, job etc. But that company kept applying on his behalf, after 7 years he was selected and got his GC. Just unbelievable... Moral of the story, if you are destined you shall get it :D
    (one way I calm myself when looking onto the window and dreaming about getting physical GC in my hand) :)
     
  17. Britsimon

    Britsimon Super Moderator

    I once met a man who swore he could turn cake mix into gold. I tend not to believe everything I am told. :)

    There are companies that will repeatedly apply year after year like that. That can cause disqualification for old photos, new spouses and children not included, change in other circustances, multiple entries because you enter yourself not considering they have entered you. It also leaves the selectee open to blackmail to get details of "their" win.

    Moral of the story, if you want to win the DV lottery, enter it yourself and follow the simple instructions.
     
    just_a_tech likes this.
  18. just_a_tech

    just_a_tech New Member

    LOL No, I am definitely with you on that!
    Although, you should've kept that man around you ;) he could've made you rich who knows...
     
  19. danny keane

    danny keane New Member

    I don't know if they disqualify that cases at interview but disqualifying them while drawing makes more sense to me. It's easier to disqualify those cases at draw stage, and also it leads reduction of the man power at the embassies. There's another fact that they take money for the interview ofc :)

    I know some people who entered the draw and won with DV 2017 photos right now. They're not anonymous, i've met and talked with some of them IRL :)

    We'll see what happens at the time of their interview.

    Cheers
     
  20. SusieQQQ

    SusieQQQ Well-Known Member

    Yes, it makes sense, but they haven't done it. It also makes sense that the photo validator immediately disqualifies all invalid photos, but it doesn't do that, hence some people are disqualified at interview. Just because you don't know if it happens, doesn't make it so. No 2018 interviews have taken place yet so no one knows.
    Of course if you are so unhappy that the people you know won with old photos, you can complain about them to the embassy and see if that takes you anywhere. Kind of sounds like bad karma to me, but hey.
     

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