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January 2015 Visa Bulletin released

usamommy2015 said:
I did what you did. Lol. Gosh when will we get to 50k. Seems like forever.
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Yes I saw - I just locked your thread because mine was a few seconds earlier and when I looked a moment ago already had a reply - YOURS - LOL.

Anyway - the numbers are out.... Only EU has much to cheer about....
 
@Britsimon when do you think AF528.. Will become current, and I'd like to know your thoughts on AF max #s. Thanks for all your input.
 
TTP said:
@Britsimon when do you think AF528.. Will become current, and I'd like to know your thoughts on AF max #s. Thanks for all your input.
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Historical numbers are shown in the link below. Based on those numbers and my thoughts on the final end point I think you'll be current around July. I think AF will not get to the same high CN as last year. I think the final number will start with a 7 - but beyond that it is too early to tell....

http://britsimonsays.com/historical-visa-bulletin-numbers/
 
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No signs of imposing special cut offs for Nepal and Iran. I'm current in November already and this won't affect me but I just feel sorry for high CN winners from the rest of Asia. Seems like DV2014 tragedy all over again!
 
Sammy967 said:
No signs of imposing special cut offs for Nepal and Iran. I'm current in November already and this won't affect me but I just feel sorry for high CN winners from the rest of Asia. Seems like DV2014 tragedy all over again!
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I flip flop about that all the time. I do think it is odd that Nepal particularly controls the pace in Asia. However why should someone in Nepal at CN AS8000 be held back behind people from the RoA. They are just as entitled to their number as the next selectee.

Also, whether we like it or not KCC achieved their goal in DV2014. They didn't waste any visas for the sake of waiting for Nepal or Iran cases. Indeed many Iranian cases were left on AP, probably to the deliberate benefit of RoA selectees. In fact Iran only received just over 2300 visas which means they had an absolutely awful year compared to their entries, selectees and interviewed candidates. Theirs is probably one of the lowest entry/visa conversion rates in DV2014...
 
Britsimon said:
I flip flop about that all the time. I do think it is odd that Nepal particularly controls the pace in Asia. However why should someone in Nepal at CN AS8000 be held back behind people from the RoA. They are just as entitled to their number as the next selectee.

Also, whether we like it or not KCC achieved their goal in DV2014. They didn't waste any visas for the sake of waiting for Nepal or Iran cases. Indeed many Iranian cases were left on AP, probably to the deliberate benefit of RoA selectees. In fact Iran only received just over 2300 visas which means they had an absolutely awful year compared to their entries, selectees and interviewed candidates. Theirs is probably one of the lowest entry/visa conversion rates in DV2014...
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Excellent point Simon. When we look at the entry/visa conversion rate it makes sense but in my opinion, as it is a diversity program, there should be a chance to give people from different backgrounds/countries an equal chance to make the diversity program a diverse one!
Last year they started imposing special cut offs for Nepal on in August. Do you see it going the same way this year?
 
Sammy967 said:
Excellent point Simon. When we look at the entry/visa conversion rate it makes sense but in my opinion, as it is a diversity program, there should be a chance to give people from different backgrounds/countries an equal chance to make the diversity program a diverse one!
Last year they started imposing special cut offs for Nepal on in August. Do you see it going the same way this year?
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Just to be clear, entries from Nepal and Iran have much lower chance of being selected than the rest of Asia because of the limit imposed in the draw process. I explained that in the post below.

http://britsimonsays.com/holes-theory-illustration/

They might start imposing a cutoff for Nepal, but because there are less selectees (~5000 versus ~6000) I could see that not happening in August, but perhaps in September. Hard to be precise, they may need all of August to catch with with the DS260 mess.
 
Comparing to Europe and Africa, Asia numbers are way worse than 2013 and even 2014. If the trend continues it means that there are considerably less visas available to issue for Asia winners.
Till last night I thought FCC learned its lesson and would current less Numbers in all regions compare with 2014(as you mentioned in 2014 there are no visas left for the last month). Maybe they are offsetting delays regarding to DS-260 problems. But why Asia currents not affected by it?
In my opinion the way FCC currents numbers, impose even lower chance of winning for AS region specially for Iran and Asia could not receive even 8000 visas as last year.
 
behdadk said:
Comparing to Europe and Africa, Asia numbers are way worse than 2013 and even 2014. If the trend continues it means that there are considerably less visas available to issue for Asia winners.
Till last night I thought FCC learned its lesson and would current less Numbers in all regions compare with 2014(as you mentioned in 2014 there are no visas left for the last month). Maybe they are offsetting delays regarding to DS-260 problems. But why Asia currents not affected by it?
In my opinion the way FCC currents numbers, impose even lower chance of winning for AS region specially for Iran and Asia could not receive even 8000 visas as last year.
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Well the quotas are established for each region so in theory speeding up one region should not impact the other regions.
 
I hope this theory works :D
Last three years historical Asia visas :
2012:6204
2013:9480
2014:8193

World diversity visas:
2012:33125
2013:51088
2014:51018

It looks like quotas are not that fixedo_O 2014 Asia winners reduced by 16% while total visas didn't change that much.
 
behdadk said:
I hope this theory works :D
Last three years historical Asia visas :
2012:6204
2013:9480
2014:8193

World diversity visas:
2012:33125
2013:51088
2014:51018

It looks like quotas are not that fixedo_O 2014 Asia winners reduced by 16% while total visas didn't change that much.
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Forget 2012 - it was an anomoly.

The 2013 number includes AoS, whilst 2014 does not.
 
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