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For those that just received their 2NL - submission date survey

CN: 2015AF2***
DS-260 Completed: Feb 17, 2015
Unlock Date: 7 May, 2015
2NL received: May 20th, 2015
Interview Date: July 8, 2015
Embassy: Accra
 
Candeu said:
but what is your final EU cut off prediction? you gave your prediction only for the next VB.
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You must be joking! No offense, possibly it is simply a language thing, yet do you at all process information which happens not to come in the form of numbers in an Excel Sheet? :rolleyes:

Posting # 86: "... Personally, I would think that EU numbers below 40K should, in fact, have a realistic chance this year."
Posting # 90: "... However, as I also said earlier, I still believe that EU numbers below 40K still have got a chance this year, the question is just how many numbers below 40K..." (underlines added).
 
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EURO2014 said:
You must be joking! No offense, possibly it is simply a language thing, yet do you at all process information which happens not to come in the form of numbers in an Excel Sheet? :rolleyes:

Posting # 86: "... Personally, I would think that EU numbers below 40K should, in fact, have a realistic chance this year."
Posting # 90: "... However, as I also said earlier, I still believe that EU numbers below 40K still have got a chance this year, the question is just how many numbers below 40K..." (underlines added).
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I process all information in any form, which is unambiguous. Your question in posting 90 makes your predicted 40k not a specific amount. better to give a range than give vague ending, I think.
 
Candeu said:
Blueraven, what is yr cn?
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My CN is 405xx and I`m starting to think that I might have no chance for a interview this year. I have been checking the data from CEAC and I think there are around 1800 CN`s before me [starting with 35700] which makes me think even more that I`m not having any chance. Thanks for the replies guys!
 
BlueRaven said:
My CN is 405xx and I`m starting to think that I might have no chance for a interview this year. I have been checking the data from CEAC and I think there are around 1800 CN`s before me [starting with 35700] which makes me think even more that I`m not having any chance. Thanks for the replies guys!
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I think you should not lose your hope yet. wait until July 10 to see the final cut off.
 
Candeu said:
I process all information in any form, which is unambiguous. Your question in posting 90 makes your predicted 40k not a specific amount. better to give a range than give vague ending, I think.
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Frankly, for a guy who has not provided any predictions, neither for next month nor end-of-year, you are rather bold. I believe we should speak again once you have overcome your seemingly "paralysis through analysis" attitude and finally have come forward with some numbers :rolleyes:
 
EURO2014 said:
Frankly, for a guy who has not provided any predictions, neither for next month nor end-of-year, you are rather bold. I believe we should speak again once you have overcome your seemingly "paralysis through analysis" attitude and finally have come forward with some numbers :rolleyes:
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my predicted range for EU final cut off is 39-42k. as you can see there is some overlap in our predictions..
 
Sm1smom said:
@Candeu and @EURO2014,

Time out guys please. This Thread is meant for 2NL receipt and DS form submission. The back and forth conversation is taking it off the path of the survey it was intended to be.
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True! :) But then, folks don't seem to be dying to discuss "For those that just received their 2NL - submission date survey" topics - maybe we could simply rename the thread into "EU VB's August & September Expectations". Just joking, of course :D
Sometimes it takes so time to find common ground - see Candeu's last post, hence the issue is now resolved and this thread should definitely go back to its intended purposes without further undue delay ;) Thank you, Sm1smom!
 
EURO2014 said:
Ultimately we will wait until the VB August 2015 will be published on or around July 8, 2015 to know what the outcome for DV2015 will be, except for the lucky few who will become current in August with the forthcoming Bulletin. Simply to go on record: I think the available CEAC data in its current form is useful to understand in hindsight what has happened, it is noticeably less useful to make effective predictions on what will be happening - the last month is a rather good example, yet certainly not the only one, for my position.

Lastly, BlueRaven had asked us for an estimate for the coming month and year-end, which is what I provided. Obviously, any forecast comes with uncertainty and some level of risk to the person who makes it - why don't you give it a try and we can then compare those in due course with published results? Statistical numbers must be good for something, no? I certainly stand, at this time, with my earlier communicated 2,500 - 3,500 range and would be rather surprised if it were completely out of range - we will see. In fact, I would assume that the higher a jump we will see in August for EU, the less likely is may become to see another noticeable increase for September, if any. That's all...;)
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I think the increased CEAC data provides a lot more insight than you think. THe old guesses were just that - complete guess, no logic at all. At least now the month to month is a lot more predictable. However, the last month or two could get tough to estimate since KCC will have to do "something" about the no show rate...
 
Britsimon said:
I think the increased CEAC data provides a lot more insight than you think. THe old guesses were just that - complete guess, no logic at all. At least now the month to month is a lot more predictable. However, the last month or two could get tough to estimate since KCC will have to do "something" about the no show rate...
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That's an interesting comment - is there a big increase in "Ready" status since last year? A side effect of the DS-260 I presume.
 
The no shows are most obvious in AF region. Issued numbers are low, not because they aren't setting enough interviews, but more because of no sphows. Since the DS260 was easier/free to submit, the speculation is that someone would submit the firm but think twice when they need to lay for medicals and DV fees. I don't think this was much of a factor in OC. Or in fact any other region.
 
Britsimon said:
The no shows are most obvious in AF region. Issued numbers are low, not because they aren't setting enough interviews, but more because of no sphows. Since the DS260 was easier/free to submit, the speculation is that someone would submit the firm but think twice when they need to lay for medicals and DV fees. I don't think this was much of a factor in OC. Or in fact any other region.
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good comment, Simon!
Do you think the high "no shows" in AF and, as a result, lower number of visa issuance in AF can slow down visa issuance and VB increase in EU or other regions to align visa issuance rate of all the regions with AF?
 
DV4ROGER said:
Re the final cut-off.
That depends on AF region and the backlog cases. For the latter I expect an answer in the next extract. Some people still expect a wave of late submission cases of people who were contacted by KCC directly. So far I consider the July number not a sign of such a wave but as a quota adjustment, so not a threat for high case numbers. AF region is more of a unknown. If VO is handling it better than in past months I consider Edouard's 43,4## still in the ballpark.
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First, I am not quite sure what, if anything, this has to do with "For those that just received their 2NL - submission date survey", the topic of this thread, yet this is absolutely Sm1smom's job and I trust that she "will watch like a hawk", and very rightly so ;) Forum rules should be followed by everyone.

Secondly, regarding the EU43,4xx number forecast - you may as well say that Europe will become Current this year. Frankly, if this is meant to be based on the available data I am somewhat reassured in my earlier train of thought that those are rather useful to understand in hindsight what has happened, yet that they are noticeably less useful to make effective predictions on what will be happening a month or two out. This being said, I stay with my earlier forecast for EU DV-2015 :)
 
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~Locking up this Thread for a while. Anyone interested in discussing EU regional cutoffs and stats should feel free to start a new Thread or find an appropriate one to post in ~
 
Yep =- they seem to have fixed the 2NLs today. Same day the coming soon was posted. Maybe the IT guy got back from vacation.

Still no in transit update....
 
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