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Fact , all people will get interviewed - no matter case no in 99%

monashed

monashed

Registered Users (C)
it's almost certain because i checked the latest statistics of issued visa
every year the government set a maximum number of 50,000 visa
according to details of the last years they couldn't reach this number anyway, that's the reason they increase the number of winners - look in 2012 only 33,125 which means they have 17K more to give. this year all numbers become current at last.

DV Diversity Immigrants Issued
2008 - 45,246
2009 - 46,761
2010 - 49,771
2011 - 49,507
2012 - 33,125

look in this link for more details :
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY12AnnualReport-TableII.pdf

after getting more info i would change the title to :
Fact , most people will get interviewed - no matter case no in 85%
 
Last edited by a moderator:
I'm sorry but your reasoning is flawed, and the FACT is not a fact at all. None of us know what will happen, but your assumption makes no sense.

Firstly 2012 was an anomaly - the process got screwed up resulting in a redraw and subsequent chaos so you cannot treat that as a normal year.

As has been explained to you before, you need to look at the visa bulletins for each previous year to see what number ranges became current. You will find that in some years, the Case numbers don't always show current in the final month. For instance, in September 2008 (DV2008) Africa shows the max numbers as AFRICA 62,300 (with a country max for Nigeria 18,450) . That means no one greater than AF62300 got an interview. If you were from Nigeria, you wouldn't receive an interview with a CN above 18450. However, according to the numbers you quote there were visas left over in this year. So - that is your "FACT" disproven right there - and that IS a fact.

In previous years there were around 100/105k selected winners and there has (I believe) been a second "drawing" around October. That presumably meant that more selectees were needed to fill the available visas. However, this year is different because they have selected 125k to start with, so that will probably mean they have MORE THAN enough selectees to fill the visa quota. The "more than enough" bit means some people will lose out and will never get an interview. Although some years have required more than 105k selectees, even in those years, some regions/countries did not go current. That is more likely in a year that starts with a pool 20% larger.

So - to recap.
If you live in a country that gets maxed out before your turn, you won't be invited for an interview.
It is likely that the visa run out before some of the 125k winners are invited for interview.
 
monashed said:
it's almost certain because i checked the latest statistics of issued visa
every year the government set a maximum number of 50,000 visa
according to details of the last years they couldn't reach this number anyway, that's the reason they increase the number of winners - look in 2012 only 33,125 which means they have 17K more to give. this year all numbers become current at last.

DV Diversity Immigrants Issued
2008 - 45,246
2009 - 46,761
2010 - 49,771
2011 - 49,507
2012 - 33,125

look in this link for more details :
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY12AnnualReport-TableII.pdf
Click to expand...

Wrong table, AoS is not included in this one.
 
britsimon said:
I'm sorry but your reasoning is flawed, and the FACT is not a fact at all. None of us know what will happen, but your assumption makes no sense.

Firstly 2012 was an anomaly - the process got screwed up resulting in a redraw and subsequent chaos so you cannot treat that as a normal year.

As has been explained to you before, you need to look at the visa bulletins for each previous year to see what number ranges became current. You will find that in some years, the Case numbers don't always show current in the final month. For instance, in September 2008 (DV2008) Africa shows the max numbers as AFRICA 62,300 (with a country max for Nigeria 18,450) . That means no one greater than AF62300 got an interview. If you were from Nigeria, you wouldn't receive an interview with a CN above 18450. However, according to the numbers you quote there were visas left over in this year. So - that is your "FACT" disproven right there - and that IS a fact.

In previous years there were around 100/105k selected winners and there has (I believe) been a second "drawing" around October. That presumably meant that more selectees were needed to fill the available visas. However, this year is different because they have selected 125k to start with, so that will probably mean they have MORE THAN enough selectees to fill the visa quota. The "more than enough" bit means some people will lose out and will never get an interview. Although some years have required more than 105k selectees, even in those years, some regions/countries did not go current. That is more likely in a year that starts with a pool 20% larger.

So - to recap.
If you live in a country that gets maxed out before your turn, you won't be invited for an interview.
It is likely that the visa run out before some of the 125k winners are invited for interview.
Click to expand...


I'm inclined to agree with britsimon on this one. +1
 
monashed said:
how do you know that ?
if so where is statistics of AOS ?
Click to expand...

DHS Immigration Statistics

find tables with detailed class of admission. For example, for 2012 is preliminary (tables 6 and 7), but for other years you can search reports for diversity (as well as per country). You'll also see that they allocated some diversity visas for employment preference... I didn't check everything out, I was looking for a specific country, but everything is in there (some numbers need to be added up). You'll see than numbers are higher than what you got from that file (because it's for the foreign posts only)

You can also look up multi-year reports on travel.state.gov, visa statistics section (Immigrant Number Use for Visa Issuances and Adjustments of Status in the Diversity Immigrant Category: Fiscal Years 2003-2012).

Having said this, I think everyone will have a chance this year - I have no data for that, I'm just being optimistic :)
 
britsimon said:
I'm sorry but your reasoning is flawed, and the FACT is not a fact at all. None of us know what will happen, but your assumption makes no sense.

Firstly 2012 was an anomaly - the process got screwed up resulting in a redraw and subsequent chaos so you cannot treat that as a normal year.

As has been explained to you before, you need to look at the visa bulletins for each previous year to see what number ranges became current. You will find that in some years, the Case numbers don't always show current in the final month. For instance, in September 2008 (DV2008) Africa shows the max numbers as AFRICA 62,300 (with a country max for Nigeria 18,450) . That means no one greater than AF62300 got an interview. If you were from Nigeria, you wouldn't receive an interview with a CN above 18450. However, according to the numbers you quote there were visas left over in this year. So - that is your "FACT" disproven right there - and that IS a fact.

In previous years there were around 100/105k selected winners and there has (I believe) been a second "drawing" around October. That presumably meant that more selectees were needed to fill the available visas. However, this year is different because they have selected 125k to start with, so that will probably mean they have MORE THAN enough selectees to fill the visa quota. The "more than enough" bit means some people will lose out and will never get an interview. Although some years have required more than 105k selectees, even in those years, some regions/countries did not go current. That is more likely in a year that starts with a pool 20% larger.

So - to recap.
If you live in a country that gets maxed out before your turn, you won't be invited for an interview.
It is likely that the visa run out before some of the 125k winners are invited for interview.
Click to expand...


Well done britsimon. Filling (knowledgewise) reavsky's shoes nicely but answering in a polite manner and with a dose of optimism !

+1
 
Also - bear in mind a lot of people get interviews later on because earlier ones have been disqualified so the quotas remain unfilled. There was a massive disqualification percentage for Bangladesh (someone posted the stats in another thread - somewhere over 90% as I recall). With Bangladesh being out of the DV this year, I'd assume that more Asian applicants will have successful interviews earlier on this year, again reducing the chances for those with high numbers to reach interview stage. Obviously this won't affect other regions.
 
If I am not mistaken, Bangladesh has a lot of fraud cases and that get eliminated right after the selection, that why in dv2012 and before Asia has very high case #. In DV2013, very few holes created since Bangladesh is not eligible. But in DV2014 the case # are at least double of DV2013 mean more holes created and with the ~20% increase of selectee. But one important thing is that, Diversity Visa has increased ~20% more in DV2014 with the reason of not fully utilizing the quota. There must have some kind of statistic in the past few years that make them increase the ~20%. Bear in mind with 20% increase, there have to do 20% more work to process applicants and conduct interviews.

I am not saying everyone will have an interview, what I am trying to get to is that, it is very different to predict the progress in DV2014. For Asia, Bangladesh is not the main factor to the progression of DV2014.
 
kayend said:
If I am not mistaken, Bangladesh has a lot of fraud cases and that get eliminated right after the selection, that why in dv2012 and before Asia has very high case #. In DV2013, very few holes created since Bangladesh is not eligible. But in DV2014 the case # are at least double of DV2013 mean more holes created and with the ~20% increase of selectee. But one important thing is that, Diversity Visa has increased ~20% more in DV2014 with the reason of not fully utilizing the quota. There must have some kind of statistic in the past few years that make them increase the ~20%. Bear in mind with 20% increase, there have to do 20% more work to process applicants and conduct interviews.

I am not saying everyone will have an interview, what I am trying to get to is that, it is very different to predict the progress in DV2014. For Asia, Bangladesh is not the main factor to the progression of DV2014.
Click to expand...

i guess will just have to wait and see , we need a lot of patients this time,
my number is quite high 19XXX , so i might not get the interview if things will be like dv2013
 
monashed said:
i guess will just have to wait and see , we need a lot of patients this time,
my number is quite high 19XXX , so i might not get the interview if things will be like dv2013
Click to expand...


Fingers crossed for you. I don't have any desire to see anyones hopes dashed, but at the same time I think people do better with realistic information.
 
kayend said:
If I am not mistaken, Bangladesh has a lot of fraud cases and that get eliminated right after the selection, that why in dv2012 and before Asia has very high case #. In DV2013, very few holes created since Bangladesh is not eligible. But in DV2014 the case # are at least double of DV2013 mean more holes created and with the ~20% increase of selectee. But one important thing is that, Diversity Visa has increased ~20% more in DV2014 with the reason of not fully utilizing the quota. There must have some kind of statistic in the past few years that make them increase the ~20%. Bear in mind with 20% increase, there have to do 20% more work to process applicants and conduct interviews.

I am not saying everyone will have an interview, what I am trying to get to is that, it is very different to predict the progress in DV2014. For Asia, Bangladesh is not the main factor to the progression of DV2014.
Click to expand...

If I understand your post correctly, you say that my assumptions about Bangladesh aren't right because the fraud cases are eliminated right after selection. Although I don't understand that (if it was so obvious the entry should have been disqualified before selection, otherwise it would be picked up at interview) but in any case it doesn't change the conclusion: that a lot of Asians got interviewed later because a lot of Bangladeshis were disqualified at whatever stage.

I don't quite understand what you are saying about holes being created in DV2014.
 
monashed said:
i guess will just have to wait and see , we need a lot of patients this time,
my number is quite high 19XXX , so i might not get the interview if things will be like dv2013
Click to expand...

DV2013 isn't over yet!!! Could still yet have all numbers going current. Good luck.
 
more statistics cheer up :)
i checked all september bulletins for ASIA
DV2012 - Current
DV2011 - Current
DV2010 - Current
DV2009 - Current
DV2008 - Current
DV2007 - Current
DV2006 - Current
DV2005 - 11,400
DV2004 - 16,300
DV2003 - 21,400
DV2002 - Current


so probably dv2013 will be current in September,
hope this will be the case for dv2014 also.
 
monashed said:
more statistics cheer up :)
i checked all september bulletins for ASIA
DV2012 - Current
DV2011 - Current
DV2010 - Current
DV2009 - Current
DV2008 - Current
DV2007 - Current
DV2006 - Current
DV2005 - 11,400
DV2004 - 16,300
DV2003 - 21,400
DV2002 - Current


so probably dv2013 will be current in September,
hope this will be the case for dv2014 also.
Click to expand...

Well that is a more logical place to look for information. If you look at the old VBs you can also work out the "pace" at which they handle the cases. The pace is important because (unless they have changed staffing/resources) they can only process cases at a given pace. That is partly a risk for that additional 20%. If I were you I would be considering where my number falls in the range of numbers for the region. For instance My number is EU314XX out of a reported range of 55k. That means my number is in the top 58% of EU numbers (that's a bit simplistic, but whatever). If I compare that to the 125k that means I am in the top 72500 worldwide and in previous years they have required at least 100k entries to fill the quota - so that gives me good confidence.
 
britsimon said:
Well that is a more logical place to look for information. If you look at the old VBs you can also work out the "pace" at which they handle the cases. The pace is important because (unless they have changed staffing/resources) they can only process cases at a given pace. That is partly a risk for that additional 20%. If I were you I would be considering where my number falls in the range of numbers for the region. For instance My number is EU314XX out of a reported range of 55k. That means my number is in the top 58% of EU numbers (that's a bit simplistic, but whatever). If I compare that to the 125k that means I am in the top 72500 worldwide and in previous years they have required at least 100k entries to fill the quota - so that gives me good confidence.
Click to expand...
i didn't fully understand your calculation , what do you think is my odds if my number is 19XXX from 26XXX reported in ASIA ?
 
19000/26000 is 73%

73% of 125k puts you in the top 91k (approximately). That compares well with the 100k figure that we know must be a safe(ish) number. So I would say your chances are very good. Not certain (who knows for sure anyway), but very good. I think you'll be happy.
 
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