Estimation of time towards GC.

M

mustang_99

Registered Users (C)
Hi All,

I am trying to estimate the amount of time it would take to finally get the GC so that I can plan my life around it. I need your valuable inputs:

My case:
EB3 priority date: Nov 2001 filed as RIR however, sent back to state and is under non-RIR queue. It is right now at the Dallas BEC.

I need your help in setting Times and Probabilities. More the sample, accurate will be the data.

Steps:
------
1. Working with my attorney to convert LC from non-RIR to RIR.
T(ime): 1 month P(robability): 0.9
2. convert non-RIR to RIR after filing
T: 3 months P: 0.4
3. LC approval after conversion
T: 3 months P: 0.9
4. current EB3 date is 22 APR 2001. Time it takes to move to Nov 2001 from
now:
T: 6 months P: 0.2
5. prepare documents for filing for I485. (I140 is already filed and approved
while waiting to reach priority dates
T: 2 months P: 0.9
6. I485 approval and recieving the card
T: 8 months P: 0.3

Total time: 23 months P: 0.017

Please let me know your ideas. I will upload a spreadsheet so that everyone can use it to get the times and probabilties.
 
I'm sorry to say so but this is totally useless. Because seveal of your items do not have even a very rough time line.

mustang_99 said:
Hi All,

I am trying to estimate the amount of time it would take to finally get the GC so that I can plan my life around it. I need your valuable inputs:

My case:
EB3 priority date: Nov 2001 filed as RIR however, sent back to state and is under non-RIR queue. It is right now at the Dallas BEC.

I need your help in setting Times and Probabilities. More the sample, accurate will be the data.

Steps:
------
1. Working with my attorney to convert LC from non-RIR to RIR.
T(ime): 1 month P(robability): 0.9
2. convert non-RIR to RIR after filing
T: 3 months P: 0.4
3. LC approval after conversion
T: 3 months P: 0.9
4. current EB3 date is 22 APR 2001. Time it takes to move to Nov 2001 from
now:
T: 6 months P: 0.2
5. prepare documents for filing for I485. (I140 is already filed and approved
while waiting to reach priority dates
T: 2 months P: 0.9
6. I485 approval and recieving the card
T: 8 months P: 0.3

Total time: 23 months P: 0.017

Please let me know your ideas. I will upload a spreadsheet so that everyone can use it to get the times and probabilties.
Click to expand...
 
Thank you for your response. Can you please identify the steps.

The whole point of this excercise is to Guestimate, especially by the people who have been waiting for a long time and have a feel for the DOL's activities.

Just by the simple back of the envelope calculation above, I know I am not getting my GC in 23 months (probability being 0.17%). However, some people in the group will have better feel for the times and probabilities.
 
Step 4: 2-5 years, unless laws change.

mustang_99 said:
Hi All,

I am trying to estimate the amount of time it would take to finally get the GC so that I can plan my life around it. I need your valuable inputs:

My case:
EB3 priority date: Nov 2001 filed as RIR however, sent back to state and is under non-RIR queue. It is right now at the Dallas BEC.

I need your help in setting Times and Probabilities. More the sample, accurate will be the data.

Steps:
------
1. Working with my attorney to convert LC from non-RIR to RIR.
T(ime): 1 month P(robability): 0.9
2. convert non-RIR to RIR after filing
T: 3 months P: 0.4
3. LC approval after conversion
T: 3 months P: 0.9
4. current EB3 date is 22 APR 2001. Time it takes to move to Nov 2001 from
now:
T: 6 months P: 0.2
5. prepare documents for filing for I485. (I140 is already filed and approved
while waiting to reach priority dates
T: 2 months P: 0.9
6. I485 approval and recieving the card
T: 8 months P: 0.3

Total time: 23 months P: 0.017

Please let me know your ideas. I will upload a spreadsheet so that everyone can use it to get the times and probabilties.
Click to expand...
 
gravitation said:
Step 4: 2-5 years, unless laws change.
Click to expand...

No the step 4 time won't be as long as 2 to 5 years. April 30, 2001 was the deadline for the 245i cases. The PD is expected to progress faster after this.
 
manwithnoname said:
No the step 4 time won't be as long as 2 to 5 years. April 30, 2001 was the deadline for the 245i cases. The PD is expected to progress faster after this.
Click to expand...

245i is a huge hurdle. Most of the 245i cases were filed in the week of April. In fact, many on the last two days of April.

I'll not repeat the calculations, but it's a consensus among the group that India EB3 will not have much forward movement till EB3 RoW is current.

Going strictly by quota, India EB3 gets barely 113 GC's per quarter. It's not even a fraction of the demand. India EB3 chocks if there's no overflow from either India EB2 or Row EB3.

The key PDs to watch for India EB3 hopefuls in any fresh visa bulletin are India EB2 and RoW EB3 dates 'cause these are the lead indicators of the India EB3 movement. As far as India EB3 itself is concerned, it's going through a looooong Ice-Age.

It's the reality. Let it sink in.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
wait a minute

Not so fast....

Traditional EB3 245i cases are HUGE and they have just started to process them. So there will be a HUGE backlog for EB3 India now onwards for quite long time unless they decide to deny most of them.

gravitation said:
I'm very glad for all of us.
Click to expand...
 
mustang_99 said:
Hi All,

I am trying to estimate the amount of time it would take to finally get the GC so that I can plan my life around it. I need your valuable inputs:

My case:
EB3 priority date: Nov 2001 filed as RIR however, sent back to state and is under non-RIR queue. It is right now at the Dallas BEC.

I need your help in setting Times and Probabilities. More the sample, accurate will be the data.

Steps:
------
1. Working with my attorney to convert LC from non-RIR to RIR.
T(ime): 1 month P(robability): 0.9
2. convert non-RIR to RIR after filing
T: 3 months P: 0.4
3. LC approval after conversion
T: 3 months P: 0.9
4. current EB3 date is 22 APR 2001. Time it takes to move to Nov 2001 from
now:
T: 6 months P: 0.2
5. prepare documents for filing for I485. (I140 is already filed and approved
while waiting to reach priority dates
T: 2 months P: 0.9
6. I485 approval and recieving the card
T: 8 months P: 0.3

Total time: 23 months P: 0.017

Please let me know your ideas. I will upload a spreadsheet so that everyone can use it to get the times and probabilties.
Click to expand...

Please do not do this. Just consider one life time is enough for achieving GC. If you believe in birth and rebirth cycles then you can be hopeful to take advantage of GC in next life to become US citizen ( What is great about that?, Oh, Ya different subject so will not discuss here)provided GC can be extended to next life and can be attached to the soul.
 
garbarsarbar said:
Not so fast....

Traditional EB3 245i cases are HUGE and they have just started to process them. So there will be a HUGE backlog for EB3 India now onwards for quite long time unless they decide to deny most of them.
Click to expand...

May be, may be not.

I'm very well aware of 245i's.

It's a good chance that all these 245i's will be in EW category and not EB3. That's why visa bulletin sees "No further movement in EB2 and EW categories", but makes no such statement about EB3.

Now, why the optimism that 245i's could be in EW category? Simple; an attorney -by default- will file for EW and not EB3. For the same reason as filing EB3 instead of filing EB2 when there is a choice. filing in a more stringent category is more work for the attorney (usually without extra money).
 
LC Certified.

Hi All,

Steps and 1 and 2 are done much faster than I esitmated. My Labor has been certified today. I am on track !

Never underestimate the strength of positive thinking !
 
mustang_99 said:
Hi All,

Steps and 1 and 2 are done much faster than I esitmated. My Labor has been certified today. I am on track !

Never underestimate the strength of positive thinking !
Click to expand...

Correct, there is a bit of optimism in everyone in the forum.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top