Dear Mr Simon.
Thank you for your informative and useful blog post about Holes theory.
I wanted to follow your steps and analyze Iran condition and compare it to 2014 but unfortunately I couldn't get my hands on visa entrants data of 2014 and 2015. If you happen to know where I can find them please let me know.
We have a poll each year in our forum to check the distribution of dv lottery selectees, and everything pans out in regard to your Holes theory and the result is very interesting:
In 2014, 449 Iranian applicant selectees (my guess is that they are something around 15% of all 2014 Iranian winners) participate in our poll and data shows that latest case numbers are something around 2014as9200 .since there are about 6000 Iranian applicants. We have selectees with case number over 13000 but as far as I know they are from Afghanistan or other countries who could speak Persian and in fact they are not selected as Iranian applicants.
In 2015, 613 Iranian applicant selectees ( around 25% of all 2015 iranian winners) Participate in our poll and data shows that latest case numbers are something aroun 2015as8600. and like 2014 we could consider high case numbes as non Iranian persian applicants.
As you can see our poll results confirms your Holes theory and because this year they stop at 5000 Iranian winners instead of 6000, draw performed on lower number 8600 instead of 9200.
I bet that same thing happens with Nepal and there are lots of holes In over 8600 numbers.
My question is that since the 8000+ Case numbers in AS region are more diverse isn't it reasonable for KCC to announce higher AS bulletin numbers each month to have the same number of AS visas as previous year? Current strategy of KCC is the exact opposite and in my understanding, either there is a big jump on AS bulletin in following months or Asia visa issuance will be worse than 2014. But I could strongly sugest that highest CN in AS in the last 2015 bulletin will be higher that 2014 (Am I right?)
And one more question: Since there are 1000 less Iranian winners and the highest winner case number is around 600 less than 2014 could we assume that Iranian entrants percentage to the region are smaller than previous year?
Thank you for your informative and useful blog post about Holes theory.
I wanted to follow your steps and analyze Iran condition and compare it to 2014 but unfortunately I couldn't get my hands on visa entrants data of 2014 and 2015. If you happen to know where I can find them please let me know.
We have a poll each year in our forum to check the distribution of dv lottery selectees, and everything pans out in regard to your Holes theory and the result is very interesting:
In 2014, 449 Iranian applicant selectees (my guess is that they are something around 15% of all 2014 Iranian winners) participate in our poll and data shows that latest case numbers are something around 2014as9200 .since there are about 6000 Iranian applicants. We have selectees with case number over 13000 but as far as I know they are from Afghanistan or other countries who could speak Persian and in fact they are not selected as Iranian applicants.
In 2015, 613 Iranian applicant selectees ( around 25% of all 2015 iranian winners) Participate in our poll and data shows that latest case numbers are something aroun 2015as8600. and like 2014 we could consider high case numbes as non Iranian persian applicants.
As you can see our poll results confirms your Holes theory and because this year they stop at 5000 Iranian winners instead of 6000, draw performed on lower number 8600 instead of 9200.
I bet that same thing happens with Nepal and there are lots of holes In over 8600 numbers.
My question is that since the 8000+ Case numbers in AS region are more diverse isn't it reasonable for KCC to announce higher AS bulletin numbers each month to have the same number of AS visas as previous year? Current strategy of KCC is the exact opposite and in my understanding, either there is a big jump on AS bulletin in following months or Asia visa issuance will be worse than 2014. But I could strongly sugest that highest CN in AS in the last 2015 bulletin will be higher that 2014 (Am I right?)
And one more question: Since there are 1000 less Iranian winners and the highest winner case number is around 600 less than 2014 could we assume that Iranian entrants percentage to the region are smaller than previous year?