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Effect of Holes theory on Asia Visa Bulletin?

B

behdadk

Member
Dear Mr Simon.
Thank you for your informative and useful blog post about Holes theory.
I wanted to follow your steps and analyze Iran condition and compare it to 2014 but unfortunately I couldn't get my hands on visa entrants data of 2014 and 2015. If you happen to know where I can find them please let me know.
We have a poll each year in our forum to check the distribution of dv lottery selectees, and everything pans out in regard to your Holes theory and the result is very interesting:
In 2014, 449 Iranian applicant selectees (my guess is that they are something around 15% of all 2014 Iranian winners) participate in our poll and data shows that latest case numbers are something around 2014as9200 .since there are about 6000 Iranian applicants. We have selectees with case number over 13000 but as far as I know they are from Afghanistan or other countries who could speak Persian and in fact they are not selected as Iranian applicants.

In 2015, 613 Iranian applicant selectees ( around 25% of all 2015 iranian winners) Participate in our poll and data shows that latest case numbers are something aroun 2015as8600. and like 2014 we could consider high case numbes as non Iranian persian applicants.

As you can see our poll results confirms your Holes theory and because this year they stop at 5000 Iranian winners instead of 6000, draw performed on lower number 8600 instead of 9200.
I bet that same thing happens with Nepal and there are lots of holes In over 8600 numbers.

My question is that since the 8000+ Case numbers in AS region are more diverse isn't it reasonable for KCC to announce higher AS bulletin numbers each month to have the same number of AS visas as previous year? Current strategy of KCC is the exact opposite and in my understanding, either there is a big jump on AS bulletin in following months or Asia visa issuance will be worse than 2014. But I could strongly sugest that highest CN in AS in the last 2015 bulletin will be higher that 2014 (Am I right?)

And one more question: Since there are 1000 less Iranian winners and the highest winner case number is around 600 less than 2014 could we assume that Iranian entrants percentage to the region are smaller than previous year?
 
behdadk said:
Dear Mr Simon.
Thank you for your informative and useful blog post about Holes theory.
I wanted to follow your steps and analyze Iran condition and compare it to 2014 but unfortunately I couldn't get my hands on visa entrants data of 2014 and 2015. If you happen to know where I can find them please let me know.
We have a poll each year in our forum to check the distribution of dv lottery selectees, and everything pans out in regard to your Holes theory and the result is very interesting:
In 2014, 449 Iranian applicant selectees (my guess is that they are something around 15% of all 2014 Iranian winners) participate in our poll and data shows that latest case numbers are something around 2014as9200 .since there are about 6000 Iranian applicants. We have selectees with case number over 13000 but as far as I know they are from Afghanistan or other countries who could speak Persian and in fact they are not selected as Iranian applicants.

In 2015, 613 Iranian applicant selectees ( around 25% of all 2015 iranian winners) Participate in our poll and data shows that latest case numbers are something aroun 2015as8600. and like 2014 we could consider high case numbes as non Iranian persian applicants.

As you can see our poll results confirms your Holes theory and because this year they stop at 5000 Iranian winners instead of 6000, draw performed on lower number 8600 instead of 9200.
I bet that same thing happens with Nepal and there are lots of holes In over 8600 numbers.

My question is that since the 8000+ Case numbers in AS region are more diverse isn't it reasonable for KCC to announce higher AS bulletin numbers each month to have the same number of AS visas as previous year? Current strategy of KCC is the exact opposite and in my understanding, either there is a big jump on AS bulletin in following months or Asia visa issuance will be worse than 2014. But I could strongly sugest that highest CN in AS in the last 2015 bulletin will be higher that 2014 (Am I right?)

And one more question: Since there are 1000 less Iranian winners and the highest winner case number is around 600 less than 2014 could we assume that Iranian entrants percentage to the region are smaller than previous year?
Click to expand...

Interesting long post BUT I cannot see any reason why AS would be any different to last year. We don't have entry information, but what reason would change the number of entries? Nothing. Iran got a huge amount of AP cases unresolved in 2014, but no one knew that until recently. So, I don't think there is any credible reason or evidence to believe Iran had lower percentage entrants - so things will be similar to last year.
 
If the entries are same, Iranian selectees distribution is somewhat simmilar to 2014 and because KCC draw iran out after 5000 (1000 less than previous year) and the same will happen to nepal, we could guess that the diffrence between highest case numbers of 2014 and 2015 for Nepal and Iran would be around 1000(if we consider there were no initial holes and there are no other country selectee!) , since that's not the case it means that distribution of Iran selectees are a little different from last year and they are more deviated than last year which means they have less overall winning chance compare with 2014. Since selection is random we could consider the possibility that either Iran applicants are lower this year or other AS applicant are higher in compare with Iran.
P.S: I have a confession to make : The first time I didn't consider the difference between applicant and derivatives and the gap was way bigger but now it is a smaller but still noticeable gap.

and for the AS region since the draw is applied in lower case number and this year Nepal will again hit its limit and Iran issued visas are something between 2013 and 2014, If they issue bulletin like 2014 they face the big holes sooner which means they couldn't issue as many visa as 2014.
 
I still don't see your points again at all.

The 1000 less selectees is all off the top. It is the highest 1000 - that us how the draw works. So, they didn't use all the Iranian nor Nepal selectees last year meaning losing the top 1000 selectees represents no real difference.

There are holes before the countries are limited. But the density is a result of the entries which we don't know. Since we don't know the entries, we should not speculate there has been any change at all unless we can come up with a sensible theory why more or less Iranians applied in 2014 or 2015.
 
Thank you for kind and fast answer.
The biggest problem as you stated is that we don't know the entries numbers and since we don't have that we couldn't agree on any conclusion.

For your information we have a theory: Improved economical and political environment of Iran (the result of new president policies) would change Iranian decision for Immigration. In fact I am expecting drastic changes and lot less Iranian applicants for 2016. but again as you stated we can't approve it untill we got the actual results.

Thanks anyway for your answer and your time.
Best of lucks
 
behdadk said:
Thank you for kind and fast answer.
The biggest problem as you stated is that we don't know the entries numbers and since we don't have that we couldn't agree on any conclusion.

For your information we have a theory: Improved economical and political environment of Iran (the result of new president policies) would change Iranian decision for Immigration. In fact I am expecting drastic changes and lot less Iranian applicants for 2016. but again as you stated we can't approve it untill we got the actual results.

Thanks anyway for your answer and your time.
Best of lucks
Click to expand...

In order to affect the number of people that apply for a free lottery to move to America, it would need a factor that is much more dramatic than a change in the policies of the existing regime. However, we will not know whether you are correct or not for 2 or 3 years!
 
Thank you again. Hope to see you again in 3 years;)
I just tried your hole theory for 2013-2015

As you mentioned we don't have exact reading of DV entrants of 2014 and 2015 but you suggest there is a big possibility that nothing changed and we could assume the same number as DV 2013 entrants are availible for each contry in asia region (or at least they grow or reduce in a same rate)

DV 2013 hole theory analysis:
Chance of winning for AS region: 0.87
Chance of winning for Iran : 0.87
Chance of winning for Nepal : 0.88
all other countries have nearly same chance of winning exept Oman and Timor (with low entrants that is pure luck)
If I'm not mistaken your theory suggests that there are no draws in Iran and Nepal Cases for 2013 :D

DV 2014 hole theory analysis(DV entrants assumed to be same as DV 2013):
Chance of winning for AS region: 1.26
Chance of winning for Iran : 0.87
Chance of winning for Nepal : 1.23
all other countries have nearly same chance of winning exept Oman and Timor (with low entrants that is pure luck)
If I'm not mistaken your theory suggests that KCC draws Iran CN drawn after they hit 6000 but they didn't draw Nepal cases since there are actually 6028 winners in Nepal.
This result somehow makes sense.

DV 2015 hole theory analysis(DV entrants assumed to be same as DV 2013):
Chance of winning for AS region: 1.10
Chance of winning for Iran : 0.72
Chance of winning for Nepal : 1.01
all other countries have nearly same chance of winning
If I'm not mistaken your theory suggests that KCC draws Iran and Nepal selectees after they hit 5000.

5000 Case number for Nepal makes sense as 95% of them receive visa without AP but It kinda sucks for Iranian applicants. Last year with 6000 Iranian applicants(with derivatives) due to long AP process, only 2360 visa issued and other countries in the region and other regions hit their limit before Iranians have a chance to get cleared. One can predict what happens if there are 1000 less Iranians and instead 1000 more selectees in other countries with low AP. I predict 2015 Iranian visas are less than 2014.
I think in general Iranians have the worst chance of success being in AS region, Having long AP and in regard to 5000 selectee limit
 
Last edited:
behdadk said:
Thank you again. Hope to see you again in 3 years;)
I just tried your hole theory for 2013-2015

As you mentioned we don't have exact reading of DV entrants of 2014 and 2015 but you suggest there is a big possibility that nothing changed and we could assume the same number as DV 2013 entrants are availible for each contry in asia region (or at least they grow or reduce in a same rate)

DV 2013 hole theory analysis:
Chance of winning for AS region: 0.87
Chance of winning for Iran : 0.87
Chance of winning for Nepal : 0.88
all other countries have nearly same chance of winning exept Oman and Timor (with low entrants that is pure luck)
If I'm not mistaken your theory suggests that there are no draws in Iran and Nepal Cases for 2013 :D

DV 2014 hole theory analysis(DV entrants assumed to be same as DV 2013):
Chance of winning for AS region: 1.26
Chance of winning for Iran : 0.87
Chance of winning for Nepal : 1.23
all other countries have nearly same chance of winning exept Oman and Timor (with low entrants that is pure luck)
If I'm not mistaken your theory suggests that KCC draws Iran CN drawn after they hit 6000 but they didn't draw Nepal cases since there are actually 6028 winners in Nepal.
This result somehow makes sense.

DV 2015 hole theory analysis(DV entrants assumed to be same as DV 2013):
Chance of winning for AS region: 1.10
Chance of winning for Iran : 0.72
Chance of winning for Nepal : 1.01
all other countries have nearly same chance of winning
If I'm not mistaken your theory suggests that KCC draws Iran and Nepal selectees after they hit 5000.

5000 Case number for Nepal makes sense as 95% of them receive visa without AP but It kinda sucks for Iranian applicants. Last year with 6000 Iranian applicants(with derivatives) due to long AP process, only 2360 visa issued and other countries in the region and other regions hit their limit before Iranians have a chance to get cleared. One can predict what happens if there are 1000 less Iranians and instead 1000 more selectees in other countries with low AP. I predict 2015 Iranian visas are less than 2014.
I think in general Iranians have the worst chance of success being in AS region, Having long AP and in regard to 5000 selectee limit
Click to expand...

Those numbers don't look right.
 
I would be willing to bet that Nepal had a sudden increase in selectees between 2013 and 2014, and the reason is the agencies that help people enter the lottery. Nepal had a similar number of entries to Iran on the 2013 stats, but of course received less selectees because of the variation in derivative ratio. That ratio by the way is supporting evidence of agents influencing the process (see Ghana).
 
That's funny and interesting at the same time!
It seems that the only random process in entrants selection happens within country and even there, it is not all random after all!
 
behdadk said:
That's funny and interesting at the same time!
It seems that the only random process in entrants selection happens within country and even there, it is not all random after all!
Click to expand...

Of course it is random, but unusual country specific factors and changes can change the outcome.
 
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