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DV2015 Winners from Sri Lanka

hi brad89
can u explain that how to take police clearance? where did u take Colombo or your home town?
http://www.police.lk/index.php/permits/91-application-for-clearence-certificate , when you submit the form you must attend to the police head.q(colombo). After 1 or 2 days police(from which area you give) will call you, they ask to submit to some proving documents such as GS certificate ,Family card, Character certificate etc.. ( sometimes police may come to your home ) if all documents are correct & you don't have any police/court case you ll receive the clearance within 3 weeks..
 
Hey Guys....

After this months VB release. I am in doubt about my case.

AS 111XX

WHAT DO YOU GUYS THINK????

Why is it very slow compared to last year?

After 6 long years....only this year I got through....now I am sad and little by little losing hope guys.
 
Hey Guys....

After this months VB release. I am in doubt about my case.

AS 111XX

WHAT DO YOU GUYS THINK????

Why is it very slow compared to last year?

After 6 long years....only this year I got through....now I am sad and little by little losing hope guys.

I hope we will get an interview chance, but not sure till September VB release.
 
I hope we will get an interview chance, but not sure till September VB release.
Am not from Sri Lanka, but from ROA with about the same number.
If 11xxx to 12xxx is current in Sept, are you saying the big jump happens in Sept instead of Aug? Or 11xxx to 12xxx is the final movement like 13350 last year?
 
Am not from Sri Lanka, but from ROA with about the same number.
If 11xxx to 12xxx is current in Sept, are you saying the big jump happens in Sept instead of Aug? Or 11xxx to 12xxx is the final movement like 13350 last year?

Hi,

Lets wait till Britsimons predictions. He will update it shortly.

What stands for ROA?
 
Hi Guys ..,
I am nerves about increasing of CNs. :(:oops:
However hope our CNs will be current and get an interview chances as previous year. :)
Hopefully we have to wait and see next three big jumps. :rolleyes:
Good Luck for all who are suffering with big CNs higher than AS11xxx.:)
 
Hi Guys ..,
I am nerves about increasing of CNs. :(:oops:
However hope our CNs will be current and get an interview chances as previous year. :)
Hopefully we have to wait and see next three big jumps. :rolleyes:
Good Luck for all who are suffering with big CNs higher than AS11xxx.:)

Below is my guessing but Britsimons is the best person to tell us little more acurate.

upload_2015-4-16_10-58-11.png
 
Last edited:
Below is my guessing but Britsimons is the best person to tell us little more acurate.

View attachment 453

That is a pretty good representation of what is happening.

Nepal will certainly hit the max - most likely between 7500 and 8000. That will leave a few hundred Nepalese cases without visas.

The quota is up to 8500. Nepal will take 3500. The remaining 5000 will be split between Iran and ROA. So - if Iranian AP is slow Iran might take 2200 to 2500. If however their AP is faster, then they could get up to 3000 range again. The answer to that decides how many visas are left for ROA - and whilst we have heard reliable reports that Iranian AP cases are going faster I am yet to confirm that through CEAC updates. So for now, we can't be certain of the final numbers because a 500 difference for ROA is a large difference in CN terms.
 
Below is my guessing but Britsimons is the best person to tell us little more acurate.

View attachment 453
Idea Mani, thanks for the summary and the note on ROA.

I can't help but wonder if the 65% response rate would be reduced once Nepal has max out.
We know Nepalese is keen on returning their DS260, showing up on interview compared to ROA and Iran.They also represent more than 1/3 of cases before Iran max out too.

As such, the response rate could be lower pass that point, which means a more favorable outcome for us:D
 
Nepal will max out between 7001-8000 or early 85XX. Then there will be low CN count. look at 8001-9000 there are 848 visas, if Nepal max out, early 8000 there will be 520 visas goes to ROA.

I did not restrict Iran, so ROA will be benefit from Iran AP more.
 
Nepal will max out between 7001-8000 or early 85XX. Then there will be low CN count. look at 8001-9000 there are 848 visas, if Nepal max out, early 8000 there will be 520 visas goes to ROA.

I did not restrict Iran, so ROA will be benefit from Iran AP more.
Right, but you use the same 65% response rate after Nepal maxes out in your calculation, correct?

I am wondering if the response rate will be lower than 65% after Nepal maxes out. Therefore a revised calculation after.
 
Nepal will max out between 7001-8000 or early 85XX. Then there will be low CN count. look at 8001-9000 there are 848 visas, if Nepal max out, early 8000 there will be 520 visas goes to ROA.

I did not restrict Iran, so ROA will be benefit from Iran AP more.
Upon a closer look at your statement "if Nepal max out, early 8000 there will be 520 visas goes to ROA" , I have another question/doubt.

If Nepal maxes out early (or late), meaning they have taken 3500 visa (in reality more or less 33xx-32xx visas), there will not 520 visa going to ROA.
Assuming the regional quota of 8200, Nepal max early or late yields 3500 visa regardless, Iran will take a portion, maybe 2500?
If so ROA will be 8200-3500-2500 = 2200 visa for ROA.

Hence Nepal maxing out early or late will not yield more visa for ROA.
 
Yes I used 65% response rate. Actually present asia response rate is 63%, I added 2% extra. Please read Brisimon article for more information http://britsimonsays.com/response-rate-analysis-as-of-march/

May be you are right after Nepal maxed out can be less response rate.
I don't know for sure, but Nepal seems to be very keen to respond compared to the rest (both Iran and ROA), hence my question.
Thanks for sharing your thought Idea Mani, really appreciate it.
 
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