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DV2015 asian selectees CN 10,000-15,000 GTFIH

S

siliconeslinger

Member
are we gonna all make it ? given that this year's last cut-off number for asia is merely 13,350, the prior year it maxed out at 9,000-ish and went current the following month, my CN is 13,6,xx had i been selected for DV2014 i would be crying on the corner now for missing out just 200-ish

i did some research though and i found that DV2014 has 22,000-23,000 selectees while DV2015 has 20,002 selectees exactly, will the difference in the number of selectees make up for the increase in cut-off number that we need ? that plus Nigeria being ineligible for DV2015 might very well make up for the increase.

take this with a grain of salt but i think this year's cut-off number for asia will end at 14,000-ish or a tad lower, or maybe it could go current but that's unlikely,can't really tell at this point but it'll be odd if it doesn't go current for 2 years in a row..

Discuss
 
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In 2015, all repeat, only people who do not get an interview will be less on 15 thousand.
 
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Sloner said:
In 2015, all repeat, only people who do not get an interview will be less than 15 thousand.
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Can't comprehend dude, strong English skill.. Lol

Did you mean only 15,000 or less people won't get an interview?

Aren't you a troll? Posting some political russian nonsense in September vb thread?
 
siliconeslinger said:
Can't comprehend dude, strong English skill.. Lol

Did you mean only 15,000 or less people won't get an interview?

Aren't you a troll? Posting some political russian nonsense in September vb thread?
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I corrected. The lottery is held by the State Department United States - is a political organization. Without the policy can not be.
And look how much I have messages. Trolls many do not live.
 
siliconeslinger said:
are we gonna all make it ? given that this year's last cut-off number for asia is merely 13,350, the prior year it maxed out at 9,000-ish and went current the following month, my CN is 13,6,xx had i been selected for DV2014 i would be crying on the corner now for missing out just 200-ish

i did some research though and i found that DV2014 has 22,000-23,000 selectees while DV2015 has 20,002 selectees exactly, will the difference in the number of selectees make up for the increase in cut-off number that we need ? that plus Nigeria being ineligible for DV2015 might very well make up for the increase.

take this with a grain of salt but i think this year's cut-off number for asia will end at 14,000-ish or a tad lower, or maybe it could go current but that's unlikely,can't really tell at this point but it'll be odd if it doesn't go current for 2 years in a row..

Discuss
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Nigeria being excluded will increase available visas for all regions by a small amount. AS stands to gain around 500/600 visas from the Nigeria allocation. Nepal and Iran will dominate the early numbers again, in DV2014 the split for every 100 cases up to around 10k was 40 Iran, 40 Nepal and 20 Rest of Asia.

Nepal will max out again. Even with the reduction to 5000 max selectees implemented this year, Nepal can easily reach its country limit and so the Nigeria increase cannot help them. In a similar way, Iran might be able to max out, or get very close to maxing so again, there is not much chance of them taking the extra visas.

That means the "rest of Asia" gets an extra 500 visas and with very low case number density. Therefore the CN progression in AS could go much higher this year. However, KCC will need to put country VB limits in place on Nepal/Iran for AS to get that full benefit, and this year they left that far too late (which will probably mean AS underfills).
 
Britsimon said:
Nigeria being excluded will increase available visas for all regions by a small amount. AS stands to gain around 500/600 visas from the Nigeria allocation. Nepal and Iran will dominate the early numbers again, in DV2014 the split for every 100 cases up to around 10k was 40 Iran, 40 Nepal and 20 Rest of Asia.

Nepal will max out again. Even with the reduction to 5000 max selectees implemented this year, Nepal can easily reach its country limit and so the Nigeria increase cannot help them. In a similar way, Iran might be able to max out, or get very close to maxing so again, there is not much chance of them taking the extra visas.

That means the "rest of Asia" gets an extra 500 visas and with very low case number density. Therefore the CN progression in AS could go much higher this year. However, KCC will need to put country VB limits in place on Nepal/Iran for AS to get that full benefit, and this year they left that far too late (which will probably mean AS underfills).
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What is that supposed to mean? Iran and Nepal taking over the benefit that Nigeria being ineligible gives that the rest of AS doesn't get affected?

Also do you think EU, AS & AF will go current this year just like they used to prior to DV2014? why is the number so terrible in DV2014? It's like the worst DV in the history of DV
 
siliconeslinger said:
What is that supposed to mean? Iran and Nepal taking over the benefit that Nigeria being ineligible gives that the rest of AS doesn't get affected?

Also do you think EU, AS & AF will go current this year just like they used to prior to DV2014? why is the number so terrible in DV2014? It's like the worst DV in the history of DV
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I'm not sure what you don't understand. Iran and Nepal have such high density that VB progression was held back all year in DV2014 for AS due to the capacity to process Nepal and Iran. Holding those two countries back (showing an "except" on the VB like happened to Nepal at 9500) would allow the rest of Asia to use full capacity of the other embassies and would allow better progression.

No the big three won't go current - there are too many selectees. There were other DV years where the countries did not go current.
 
Britsimon said:
I'm not sure what you don't understand. Iran and Nepal have such high density that VB progression was held back all year in DV2014 for AS due to the capacity to process Nepal and Iran. Holding those two countries back (showing an "except" on the VB like happened to Nepal at 9500) would allow the rest of Asia to use full capacity of the other embassies and would allow better progression.

No the big three won't go current - there are too many selectees. There were other DV years where the countries did not go current.
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Yeah i don't really get why iran and Nepal are excluded from other countries, is it because they both have more than 3,500 selectees respectively as the law says that no one country can receive more than 7% of the visa? So they both have to be excluded in order for them to not hit the 7% limit?

And will 2015's progression will be similar, if not the same, as 2014, regardless of the fact that 2015 has 15,000 less selectees?
 
siliconeslinger said:
Yeah i don't really get why iran and Nepal are excluded from other countries, is it because they both have more than 3,500 selectees respectively as the law says that no one country can receive more than 7% of the visa? So they both have to be excluded in order for them to not hit the 7% limit?

And will 2015's progression will be similar, if not the same, as 2014, regardless of the fact that 2015 has 15,000 less selectees?
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I didn't say Iran and Nepal are excluded from other countries - I think you misunderstood what I was saying - and honestly I am not sure what you are now thinking....
 
Britsimon said:
I didn't say Iran and Nepal are excluded from other countries - I think you misunderstood what I was saying - and honestly I am not sure what you are now thinking....
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I meant separated from other countries' cut-off number, sorry for my poorly-worded question lol i was on crack
 
siliconeslinger said:
I meant separated from other countries' cut-off number, sorry for my poorly-worded question lol i was on crack
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OK. Yes the law says they can't receive more than 7% of available visas (3500 or more if they go higher than the 50k) so once they hit that limit they cannot receive more.

However, the limits they put on the VB are aimed at slowing down one country to give the other countries a chance. Nepal gets 40% of the selectees and processes almost all those in one consulate. THat means the capacity of that one consulate determines the pace of all of Asia - and that clearly is not sensible.
 
siliconeslinger said:
What is that supposed to mean? Iran and Nepal taking over the benefit that Nigeria being ineligible gives that the rest of AS doesn't get affected?

Also do you think EU, AS & AF will go current this year just like they used to prior to DV2014? why is the number so terrible in DV2014? It's like the worst DV in the history of DV
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You really need to look at the history of DV. I don't know about the other regions, but for years where there were cut-offs, I think this was the highest one for AF. It is most certainly not the worst DV in history.
 
it looks like we're gonna make it, september vb has just been published, last year it was merely 1800, now its 2500, we're all gonna make it brah.
 
I am from Nepal and my case number is 2015AS00006777...do i have a chance for interview???If yes then by which month will i be notified???
 
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