There has been much speculation on DV Lottery's future and here is some analysis.
If the current immigration reform Bill is passed by Senate which does not have the elimination of lottery yet - when Senate Bill goes for reconciliation with House Bill and say gets DV lottery eliminated from 1st Oct 2006 as per the House Bill date and signed by president the following applies:
Dv2006 Winners - Safe and no problems at all even if one has interview is on 29th Sept 2006
DV2007 - WILL be Abolished - Even people being notified thru first NL for being selected for DV 2007 will not be given interview dates as no DV Visa will be available from 1st Oct 2006 as per the enacted Immigration Bill/Law.
The above are worse case scenarios and if you look optimistically the following might happen. Say Senat also introduces DV Lotteyr elimination BUT when the overall bill is being reconciled by Coneference committee for HR Bill 4437 - creates disputes especially for Temp Gues Worker/illegal, the whole bill might die if there is stalemate and with elections in Nov and HR strongly opposing any amnesty/guest worker, this is also a distinct possibility.
Also Senate might just add the ammendment to spread Visa numbers as written below and if accepted as a compromise by Conference committee DV lottery might survive although reducing your chances if dont hold Adv Degree
But at least yu will have some chance instead of nothing at all!
There is another proposed ammendment in Senate currently which limits DV Lottery Visa numbers to 18333 worldwide and rest 36667 goes to people holding Advanced Degrees (Masters/PhD). Which means you better have Advanced Degree to increase you chances of winning or if you are only High School educated or just holding normal 3 or 4 year degree then just pray you get it in the 18 333 category which will drastically reduce you chance of winning. This proposal is not yet voted on by Senate and will Happen sometime after they reconvene on April 24th.
This ammendment if passed by Senate, makes it thru Reconciliation process and gets opted for instead of Elimination will take effect from 1st Oct 2006 as well!
This raises some interesting questions/scenarios. How will State Dept manage and inform winners of DV2007 of this new law especially when they would have notified 90000 winners by the time the law is signed and only to find out later that most will automatically disqalify with no Adv Degrees.
If you dont hold Adv Deg you better hope your Case number is very low. As rule of thumb reduce your regions winner tally for past year(s) by 2/3 and hope you are below this number.
Also this creates confusion, if you hold a Adv Deg and your spouse doesnt and if your spouse gets selected as principal applicant then you might be screwed cause the principal applicant doesnt hold one. How will State dept run this new ammendment replace elimination is up to them. They might allow visas as long as any spouse holds the Adv Degree. One thig is for sure this ammendment if taken effect from DV2007 will create a mess and hell lot of confusion for everyone who are selected for DV 2007.
Although State Dept holds power to see how the overall lottery is run and only need to satisfy the 50 000 quota from eligible countries for the Federal law(Imm Act), I dont think they have the power to make DV2007 go thru as per normal so new law kicks in from DV2008 (if there is one)
If you want to prevent elimination or oppose this ammendment or even raise the bar lower i.e Make it Bachelors Deg instead of Adv Degree, Contact the Senators from www.senate.gov either by email or phone.
Also use www.superpages.com to get a address from the Senators State as this is more effective cause they have rule setup to filter out email from non local state Add.
Thanks
If the current immigration reform Bill is passed by Senate which does not have the elimination of lottery yet - when Senate Bill goes for reconciliation with House Bill and say gets DV lottery eliminated from 1st Oct 2006 as per the House Bill date and signed by president the following applies:
Dv2006 Winners - Safe and no problems at all even if one has interview is on 29th Sept 2006
DV2007 - WILL be Abolished - Even people being notified thru first NL for being selected for DV 2007 will not be given interview dates as no DV Visa will be available from 1st Oct 2006 as per the enacted Immigration Bill/Law.
The above are worse case scenarios and if you look optimistically the following might happen. Say Senat also introduces DV Lotteyr elimination BUT when the overall bill is being reconciled by Coneference committee for HR Bill 4437 - creates disputes especially for Temp Gues Worker/illegal, the whole bill might die if there is stalemate and with elections in Nov and HR strongly opposing any amnesty/guest worker, this is also a distinct possibility.
Also Senate might just add the ammendment to spread Visa numbers as written below and if accepted as a compromise by Conference committee DV lottery might survive although reducing your chances if dont hold Adv Degree
But at least yu will have some chance instead of nothing at all!
There is another proposed ammendment in Senate currently which limits DV Lottery Visa numbers to 18333 worldwide and rest 36667 goes to people holding Advanced Degrees (Masters/PhD). Which means you better have Advanced Degree to increase you chances of winning or if you are only High School educated or just holding normal 3 or 4 year degree then just pray you get it in the 18 333 category which will drastically reduce you chance of winning. This proposal is not yet voted on by Senate and will Happen sometime after they reconvene on April 24th.
This ammendment if passed by Senate, makes it thru Reconciliation process and gets opted for instead of Elimination will take effect from 1st Oct 2006 as well!
This raises some interesting questions/scenarios. How will State Dept manage and inform winners of DV2007 of this new law especially when they would have notified 90000 winners by the time the law is signed and only to find out later that most will automatically disqalify with no Adv Degrees.
If you dont hold Adv Deg you better hope your Case number is very low. As rule of thumb reduce your regions winner tally for past year(s) by 2/3 and hope you are below this number.
Also this creates confusion, if you hold a Adv Deg and your spouse doesnt and if your spouse gets selected as principal applicant then you might be screwed cause the principal applicant doesnt hold one. How will State dept run this new ammendment replace elimination is up to them. They might allow visas as long as any spouse holds the Adv Degree. One thig is for sure this ammendment if taken effect from DV2007 will create a mess and hell lot of confusion for everyone who are selected for DV 2007.
Although State Dept holds power to see how the overall lottery is run and only need to satisfy the 50 000 quota from eligible countries for the Federal law(Imm Act), I dont think they have the power to make DV2007 go thru as per normal so new law kicks in from DV2008 (if there is one)
If you want to prevent elimination or oppose this ammendment or even raise the bar lower i.e Make it Bachelors Deg instead of Adv Degree, Contact the Senators from www.senate.gov either by email or phone.
Also use www.superpages.com to get a address from the Senators State as this is more effective cause they have rule setup to filter out email from non local state Add.
Thanks
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