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Do you think they catched duplicate entries?

Those are countries with just 1 winner or so. One additional pop-up (or add-on) changes the situation tremendously. So, I would not take those into account. Greece in DV-2009 (63 winners, 76 visas) is different, but still could be explained by add-ons. And fraud level for Greece is about 17%. It could be that a country with some fraud has other problems (like, add-ons).
I would still think they include dependents. Just a few countries have some problems. Also, as far as time goes, in DV-2011 Greece does not have it any more. Fixed.
 
raevsky said:
At this point about 2/3rds of all entries worldwide submitted are junk which is eliminated by matching tech nologies. As you see, it was about 50% in 2005.
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You mean that among all entries, submited worldwide, 2/3rd are eliminated before the selection, 7.5 % after the selection using facial recognition + 90 000 other?
I am confuse...
by the way, when they eliminate a selectee, do they reselect a new one to fill the gap?
 
Which country and year is that? If that is Nigeria, then it is 7K, not 800 who becomes 15K
 
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officers in Addis Ababa said that the percentage of sham DV marriages at their post could be as high as 90 percent and a cable from the post stated that DV-related marriage fraud was “rampant.”
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7K + pop-ups + add-ons could become 15K. Also, they mention 80% of 15K are disqualified for fraud. I do not see a reason why 7K + 8K is not possible.
 
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Nobody says impossible. In the meantime do you know denominator of "90 % sham marriage"? 90% from how many actual people? Nine couples out of 10 new marriage are considered sham, for example. It is possible.
 
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Each known type of fraud is being combatted. And the results in 2005 are not the same as in 1999. I am sure the amount of pop-ups in 2005 was much smaller than in 1999.
For facial recognition software, they reported it found 20,000 duplicates in DV-2003, 7622 in DV-2005, 7166 in DV-2006 and 3969 in DV-2007. Significan decrease from 20,000 just in 4 years. The same could be true with pop-ups. It does not mean there were 804 poups and add-ons in 1999 if the amount was 804 in DV-2005
The same as the situation with Greece. By 2011 the amount of po-ups and add-ons went under conrol - though that is my speculation.
 
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As far as I'm concerned Greece doesn't participate in such a great amount in the us lottery...
 
raevsky said:
At this point about 2/3rds of all entries worldwide submitted are junk which is eliminated by matching tech nologies. As you see, it was about 50% in 2005.
Click to expand...

You mean that among all entries, submited worldwide, 2/3rd are eliminated before the selection, 7.5 % after the selection using facial recognition + 90 000 other?
I am confuse...
by the way, when they eliminate a selectee, do they reselect a new one to fill the gap?
 
raevsky said:
At this point about 2/3rds of all entries worldwide submitted are junk which is eliminated by matching tech nologies. As you see, it was about 50% in 2005.
Click to expand...

You mean that among all entries, submited worldwide, 2/3rd are eliminated before the selection, 7.5 % after the selection using facial recognition + 90 000 other?
I am confuse...
by the way, when they eliminate a selectee, do they reselect a new one to fill the gap?
 
As far as I'm concerned Greece doesn't participate in such a great amount in the us lottery...
Click to expand...

The question is not about Greece or about the significance of add-ons or pop-ups from Greece. It is mainly the general question of understanding whether winner numbers published in visa bulletin include family members. Greece is a perfect example to look at it from another perspective.

The situation with Greece is the following:
2001 63 winners, 38 visas
2002 44 winners, 39 visas
2003 41 winners, 41 visas
2004 66 winners, 58 visas
2005 78 winnerd, 62 visas
2006 68 winners, 54 visas
2007 41 winner, 55 visas, 14 difference
2008 77 winners, 84 visas, 7 difference
2009 63 winners, 76 visas, 13 difference
2010 48 winners, 43 visas

So, out of those 10 years in 2007, 2008 and 2009 Greece produced more visas than winners. Without add-ons and pop-ups that could not be the case if winners include family members (visas do include them). So, we are discussing whether the amount of winners include family members. So, results from Greece could be explained by add-ons and pop-ups. Another source for differences like that is change of chargeability. You could be actually charged (upon issuing a visa) not only to the country from which you registered to the lottery. You could be charged to the country of birth of your spouse or sometimes of your parents. Or even like this:

9 FAM 42.33 N4.3 Errors in Choice of Country of Chargeability
(CT:VISA-1478; 08-26-2010)
If the entrant chooses the wrong country of chargeability at the time of the initial entry, the error will generally be disqualifying. However, if a DV
applicant chooses a country of chargeability during DV registration that is within the same geographic region (one of the six) as the correct country of chargeability, and you determine that the applicant gained no benefit from his or her error, you may continue processing the application.
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So, if you were born in Greece but somehow registered as a participand from Turkey, for instance, by mistake, you will not be disqualified and you will still be issued visa under Greece.
Also, if you were born in Egypt, but your spouse was born in Greece, you could still be issued a visa under Greece even though you initially registered under Egypt.
Also, the same situation about children. A child could get a visa under either parent's country of birth, or under his own country of birth.

In 2007 the fraud level I calculate (in order to make frequence of wins for Greece the same as in Europe in general) for Greece was about 18%,
in 2008 it was 0
In 2009 it was 17%
In 2010 it was 27%
In 2011 it was 11%
 
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You mean that among all entries, submited worldwide, 2/3rd are eliminated before the selection, 7.5 % after the selection using facial recognition + 90 000 other?
I am confuse...
Click to expand...
For us seletcion is a black box. We have some description though.

Now, all e-DV entries go through electronic and manual procedures to screen out ineligible entries. The entries are screened electronically for exact duplicate digital photographs or biographic information; exact duplicates are disqualified. Next, all principal applicant entries selected in the lottery are checked with facial recognition software against galleries (by region and by gender) drawn from the entire e-DV database to further eliminate duplicate entries based on photo matches. Possible matches are returned to KCC’s facial recognition technicians, who then make a determination on whether or not a valid match exists.
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When you say selection, do you mean any part of this process? Or do you mean selection as a result from black box?

by the way, when they eliminate a selectee, do they reselect a new one to fill the gap?
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Most likely they do. They need to produce certain amount of winners. They do not know how many will be disqualified by FR. FR is one of the last stages of disqualification at KCC, because FR is the most expensive stage. That is why they have to substitute those who were disqualified by FR by new entries. Just in case too many are in fact disqualified by FR. However, if the amount of those disqualified by FR is not significant, they might not to add the substitutes.
 
didn't receive emails from KCC

Hi, I've filled out 9 forms form my family members. 4 out of 9 received KCC emails. 5 of them havent's receive it. All five applications has my e-mail address, which is hotmail. I've checked spam, blocked senders and added no-reply@state.gov to safe senders. However, I'm still thinking it's e-mail problem. As I said, those, who were linked to a different email addresses received KCC notice.
 
Question relevant to the main topic:

I saw the DOS statement about catching duplicates, and indeed they said that they could only evaluate for duplicates in the pool of winners... this is bothersome to me because won't that mean that people can send in as many forms to increase their odds and only lose their luck if they are caught??

I mean, if one person submitted 5 applications for DV2012, the chances of them catching 2 applications in the winning pool is just as unlikely as catching 1, it is very very insignificant, so what do you have to lose? This worries me because many people can submit more than one application and increase their odds but not get caught if they win... they get away.. they only get caught if the duplicate ones are detected!!
 
Apparently they check only winner but they check them amoung the whole entries
judasgaga said:
Question relevant to the main topic:

I saw the DOS statement about catching duplicates, and indeed they said that they could only evaluate for duplicates in the pool of winners... this is bothersome to me because won't that mean that people can send in as many forms to increase their odds and only lose their luck if they are caught??

I mean, if one person submitted 5 applications for DV2012, the chances of them catching 2 applications in the winning pool is just as unlikely as catching 1, it is very very insignificant, so what do you have to lose? This worries me because many people can submit more than one application and increase their odds but not get caught if they win... they get away.. they only get caught if the duplicate ones are detected!!
Click to expand...
 
DV-2012 has more questions.
1. How come only 22000 winners checked their status within a week or so. Out of 100,000 or so.
2. Uzbekistan has a very special cut-off within Europe. That looks like a strong argument in support of no dependents for winners argument. 4800 winners from Uzbekistan and cut-off is 17050. The number of winners from Uzbekistan is about 15.5% of all Europe. They should not be afraid of quota limit if winners are with dependents. If winners are without dependents, that could be a real concern, and it looks like it is.

I also think I know the answer to the first question.
A decent part of winners remains undisclosed until necessary, even though present in DV official results. Maybe 50% or so. So, they published only about 50,000 winners, not all 100,000. So 22,000 does not looks small enough. The other half is because of middlemen. Individuals care to check immediately, middlemen do not. So, if about 50% entries are sent by middlemen, 22000 would be right what could be checked within several days. 1/4 of total amount.

My other thoughts are how they conduct the selection and checks afterwards. DV-2012 May cas shows some infor about that as well.
1. After the entries are entered into the system, the select the entries in the order in which the records are in the database and randomize the selection (shuffle). All entries that look problematic, really problematic, are excluded automatically (for nstance, a photo is emty square).
2. Then they split the selected entries into several queues for manual handling. Those queues are well seen on DV-2012 May version chart confirmation number vs rank number. Several lines. When an entry gets into a queue, it is assigned a rank number.
3. In each line a human is involved. He looks through red flags (potential duplicates) or maybe just take a brief look to see if it is a human or a painting on the photo. If an entry is cancelled by a human, it's rank number stays but is unused. That is why there are holes in the list of rank numbers.
4. Some of the lines are published immediately, others are kept hidden until necessary (like a number of notifications were sent in 6 month after the first bunch). Immediate implication is why not everybody who submitted on October 5th or 6th 2010 in DV-2012, won DV-2012 in May. Because they actually did won all, but for some of them the win was hidden.
 
Stupid question:

I now filed for the DV-Lottery Program.. But after I submitted my entrance I backshifted back to the page to see if I filled everything correctly. ( I received a confirmation number) I afterwards closed that page. Will I be disqualified just because I backshifted back to the last page, or will I be qualified becauseI didnt submit it a second time ? I only have 1 confirmation number and after I backshifted back to the last page I closed it..

I am really worrying about this
 
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