• Hello Members, This forums is for DV lottery visas only. For other immigration related questions, please go to our forums home page, find the related forum and post it there.

December Bulletin Released

Anxiety2015 said:
Not a problem, I enjoy a different opinion from you, britsimon and others.
Let me also point out my view is just a wild guess based on what we know (the cut off numbers, beyond that, it's all speculation)

Now, let's take a moment to examine some points:

Predictability of issue rate: I suspect the predictability of Nepal and Iran is not as clear as Egypt and Ethiopia.
As you have mentioned, the special cut off treatment is different between AS and AF countries with high number of entrants and selectees. If they are seen similarly, the special cut off would have been the same.

Like you said, the AF cutoffs were because of high number of selectees. However, let's consider why only Egypt and Ethiopia (and Nigeria in previous year have special cut off) while other countries such as Cameroon, Liberia and DR Congo don't.
Known number of 2015 selectees are as follow:
Egypt 4988
Ethiopia 4988
Cameroon 5000
Liberia 5000
DR Congo 4943
My guess is that the predictability of issue/AP/denial dictates the different treatment. We can further deduce that Egypt and Ethiopia need a special cut off to get the "spread" through out the year while the others are just fine to run their own course.

Ratio: Let's also consider the ratio of selectees: each of these countries with close to 5000 selectees (3500 max winners) are positioned to take up to 15.7% of total AF visa issued approximately . That is, without knowing the density of each country, the 5000 selectees (3500 max winners) can take up to 15.7 of the 20K visa issued to AF (AF issued is 22364 for 2014, another credit to Rafikbo76 and Britsimon for running the extract).

Density: That's another part we don't know for sure, we can see AF number and assume the bulk of these selectees will make up the bulk of local post interviews (each national going to be interviews at each respective post).With that said, we can take another guess that Egypt and Ethiopia have a much higher density up to and beyond the final cut off, hence the special cut off.

Conclusion for AF: Let me say it again, my guess is just what it is, a wild guess based on what I see. A mere reversed engineered thought about is known as fact. The guess itself is not fact, just a guess.
With everything being equal (predictability, ratio and density), all 5 countries would have special cut off, but only 2 does. It leads me to believe the other 3 countries are different in 1 or more (any combination of the 3) reasons I have mentioned. I am also glad to accept other factors such as britsimon's what have worked in previous years.

For Asia: Let's consider the 3 factors that came to my mind.
Predictability of issue rate: Back to SusieQQQ's point about Iran regarding them hitting the limit in year 2013 and before. My guess to that is the AP process has changed for them. Considering what's been going on in that part of the world in DoS's view, I can speculate the AP clearing rate are lower as they are now more time consuming. Therefore a special cut off is not required since the 3 posts are more than capable seeing all the selectees under normal cut off without hitting the visa limit due to AP not cleared.

Ratio: Nepal and Iran are the countries with the higher number of selectees.
Nepal 4991
Iran 4992
Cambodia 2079
Both countries are positioned to take 43.02% of visas (3500 max / 8136 visa issued in 2014). This percentage is far more than 15.7% for the big AF countries.Following this logic, one would think they should have special cut off "right off the bet" to be "fair". This leads me to believe there must be some other factors (such as predictability and density) in play for the special cut off to come on very late in the year.

Density: Nepal and Iran make up 40+% each (80% total) of the initial 10000 CN. I am guessing this is the main reason of the late special cut off.
In DoS's view (again my guess only), it is fair to give more visa to Nepal and Iran since more people got randomly selected due to the amount of applications received from them.
It means the "fair" is applied in selection, and not necessarily the rank order after selection. I haven't been able to find any law or regulation to apply the randomness or fairness to each counties other than the 3500(7%) per countries limit.

Conclusion for AS: You should know by now :p, it's only a guess. The late special cut off for AS has very different reason than AF. In DoS's view, putting special cut off for Nepal and Iran will give them the disadvantage. The "fair" portion of the lottery happens primarily in selection, and another safety catch for 3500 visa limit. Obviously, this is compounded by Nepal being the highest country with success rate at 90+%.

Am not debating whether this practice is fair or not, just pointing out the possibility which may be (part of) the reasoning of DoS. With a mid-high CN as AS10xxx, a special cut off would be favorable to me :rolleyes: (I am from rest of Asia, not Nepal or Iran).

My intention to write here is to learn from all of you and hopefully we all learn from each other in the process. Special shout out to KingKong and Macanese who reached out to me, really appreciate it :).
I hope this will clear up some of the misunderstanding/question from SusieQQQ and others. I always welcome another school of thought from anyone.
Click to expand...

Again, I am not disagreeing with you - I just think it is a bad way to use resources. But then Nepal leads kind of a charmed DV life. The 90% success rate is indicative not of the quality of the applicants there, but rather proof that Nepal embassy is very relaxed about the rules. Add that statement into the mix and we can discuss "fair" again....
 
FSW2015 said:
Thank you Simon, I hope the backlog will prompt KCC to impose the special cutoff for Nepal earlier (not very optimistic though)



I hope we'll get through this as smoothly as possible, still hoping for a July/August interview..
Click to expand...

I hope so too, we are sort of on the same boat.
 
Britsimon said:
Again, I am not disagreeing with you - I just think it is a bad way to use resources. But then Nepal leads kind of a charmed DV life. The 90% success rate is indicative not of the quality of the applicants there, but rather proof that Nepal embassy is very relaxed about the rules. Add that statement into the mix and we can discuss "fair" again....
Click to expand...
Lol, how do I change my interview location to Nepal again?
Just kidding, I seriously risk AP and it will be too complicated.

I have to say my prediction may be a bit self-fufilling, but a part of me says, AS10xxx is a fairly safe number (I would say 90% safe). What do you think britsimon?
 
Anxiety2015 said:
Lol, how do I change my interview location to Nepal again?
Just kidding, I seriously risk AP and it will be too complicated.

I have to say my prediction may be a bit self-fufilling, but a part of me says, AS10xxx is a fairly safe number (I would say 90% safe). What do you think britsimon?
Click to expand...

For Rest of Asia AS10XXX is about 99% safe. If that were a Nepal case, that would become 99% unsafe.
 
MY CN is AS77** and I am from Nepal. Is it safe or not? If yes, when do you think it will be current? This month VB results really made me worried.
 
My cn is as13,7xx and I'm not from nepal nor iran is it safe? This month's vb really gets on my nerves, I'm anxious because in dv2014 the number maxed out at 13,350 and my number is above that.

Any hope or should i forget this thing and move on?
 
Eyesthetics said:
My cn is as13,7xx and I'm not from nepal nor iran is it safe? This month's vb really gets on my nerves, I'm anxious because in dv2014 the number maxed out at 13,350 and my number is above that.

Any hope or should i forget this thing and move on?
Click to expand...

Your number is not safe or hopeless. It ius in a range that might go through, so you just need to watch the VB around July to see whether you get current....

Good luck.
 
Hi everyone,
First up, I hope you all are doing great.
My query is regarding Africa interviews. I wonder if there's anyone who has taken an interview at any spot in Africa yet?!
Thanks in advance for your reply
 
Anxiety2015 said:
I gonna take a wild guess and I don't follow the AF as closely, so here it goes:

It all comes down to how predictable the rate of issue/AP/denial is.

You will notice Egypt and Ethiopia (and Nigeria) have a special cut off right form the 1st VB vs Nepal and Iran usually get their special cut off more than half way through the year, if not later.

For Nepal, it's one of the highest success rate for country of eligibility. I would think the special cut off will kick in when KCC sees they are approaching 3500 visas issued (7% limit per INA). It seems KCC is trying to fill the Asia quota with bigger parts first without considering being "fair" to the rest of Asia. After all, they are not required by law to be "fair".

Besides, the capacity concerning Nepal cases most affect 1 post, rather than 3 for Iran. I am incline to think they treat that post as a special case.

For Iran, it's a completely different game. Most of the Iran cases got automatic AP based on the perceived risk and background check involved. By default, if they see most of the cases cannot clear AP in time, no special cut off is required as they are not going to hit the 3500 visa limit long before the year ends.Due to the nature of these background check and investigation (e.g. SSBI- single scope background investigation), the clearing time is highly unpredictable.

So putting on special cut off late in the year for both Nepal and Iran ensures their cases got "spread out" through out the year. By spread out, I mean that's including clearing the huge amount of AP especially towards the last 2 months. The 4 posts are busy without doing many interviews for the last 2 months (i.e.CO have tasks to do to clear AP and their time are used up despite no interviews are performed)

As for Egypt and Ethiopia, I suspect most of their AP cases are perceived document fraud related. These AP cases are likely cleared in a more predictable time frame and probably a predictable rate. Therefore a special cut off can be calculated right from start which ensures a "spread out" through out the year.

What do you guys think?
Click to expand...
Good argument there, save for use of the word fraud for Ethiopia and Egypt.
 
In my opinion, the visa bulletin numbers (21000) for January are positive for me with a CN of AF 84xxx. Higher than 2013 (18100) and 2014 (19400) Exponentially (if I may use this term) it seems that should there be a cut off this year, it should be around CN 95000.
But this is just my prediction, based on simple calculations. Anyone agree or disagree ?
 
Last edited:
benC said:
In my opinion, the visa bulletin numbers (21000) for January are positive for me with a CN of AF 84xxx. Higher than 2013 (18100) and 2014 (19400) Exponentially (if I may use this term) it seems that should there be a cut off this year, it should be around CN 95000.
But this is just my prediction, based on simple calculations. Anyone agree or disagree ?
Click to expand...

Do you have any reasoning to support this prediction?
 
Firstly, SusieQQQ and Britsimon much respect for you two for you insights and opinions. Secondly, Eyesthetics, I take no offence, I put something out there and I was simply asked how I came to a certain conclusion. The fact of the matter is, this whole DV situation is really life changing and going against Britsimon's advice of chilling out for a couple of months, I'm probably as obsessed and addicted as a lot of users on this forum. I'm not using any kind of complicated formula, but I have noticed that the numbers seem to be higher for this year than the previous 2 years . It looks like if I have to "extrapolate" the next number for AF for Feb "should" be around 25000 and if you look at the historical big jumps in May and June is probably how I came up with my ending number. All I'm doing is speculating around possibilities and probabilities. I do realize I'm not including the host of factors that could possibly effect the numbers this year. Probably in my own selfish way, I'm trying to rationalize the figure of AF 84xxx becoming a reality for me. :D
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top