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CEAC data update

Looking at that Data it looks like Nepal will stop from upcoming visa bulletin..

Issued Visa = 3222
Ready Visa = 287
Admin. Pro. =70
Total =3'579
Total visa refused = 28

These numbers all according to CEAC data updates...
Im kind of confused here now...one country can only get 3500 visas right ? Can some one clarify me ??
 
alex12345690 said:
Looking at that Data it looks like Nepal will stop from upcoming visa bulletin..

Issued Visa = 3222
Ready Visa = 287
Admin. Pro. =70
Total =3'579
Total visa refused = 28

These numbers all according to CEAC data updates...
Im kind of confused here now...one country can only get 3500 visas right ? Can some one clarify me ??
Click to expand...
Where did you get those numbers from?
 
Sensei-san said:
I do not know much, but it looks to me that for Asia in order to issue 8500 for the year, they should be issuing 860 visas in each of the next 7 months. They only issued 643 for Jan, 539 for Feb.
I am not sure why you would think Asia would slow dow.
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AS issued 727 this month. That is quite high for a short month, especially with so many AP and Ready cases in the wings. Don't forget that the 8500 includes AOS, so we will only see about 8000 in CEAC and there is always an AP rush in the latter months. So - it's not horribly high, just a little.
 
Britsimon said:
AS issued 727 this month. That is quite high for a short month, especially with so many AP and Ready cases in the wings. Don't forget that the 8500 includes AOS, so we will only see about 8000 in CEAC and there is always an AP rush in the latter months. So - it's not horribly high, just a little.
Click to expand...
I miscaculated the visas that were issued in Jan-Feb for Asia, my bad.
 
@Britsimon , this is amazing - after looking at the data on Nepal I had exactly the same thoughts and wanted to post them this morning. But, unless I am missing something, I do not see why you would say last year's numbers are "unlikely" to be seen. Eventhough I am in the last year's final ranges, I am not trying to be optimistic or anything like that.
However, considering all the available to me information I would say the last year's numbers are as unlikely as they are likely. I do not see any solid evidence to suggest either scenario. I am just starting to play with the numbers though.
 
Sensei-san said:
@Britsimon , this is amazing - after looking at the data on Nepal I had exactly the same thoughts and wanted to post them this morning. But, unless I am missing something, I do not see why you would say last year's numbers are "unlikely" to be seen. Eventhough I am in the last year's final ranges, I am not trying to be optimistic or anything like that.
However, considering all the available to me information I would say the last year's numbers are as unlikely as they are likely. I do not see any solid evidence to suggest either scenario. I am just starting to play with the numbers though.
Click to expand...

Mostly it hinges on Iran. Iran maxed out in DV2013, then went down to 2200 in DV2014. I think that was a blip, and given the mess they caused last year, I think there will be pressure to not repeat it. So let's assume they get 2500 this year. That would leave 2500 for ROA. There are 866 selectees in the first 4725 so at that rate you could say there are only 184 selectees per hundred (13.5k for 2500).

However, there are also 178 unclaimed in transit cases which are probably not Iran or Nepal (because those embassies are updating) so, there are about 320 selectees in the 4725 plus the DS260 backlog. So my theory is that ROA density will be at least than 260/270 per thousand who respond which would yield at least 220/230 issued per thousand - and that could hit 2500 by about 11.5K. Of course - if Iran only takes 2000 - that would be 2000 CNs higher. See what I mean about Iran?

That number (of 260/270) would be the conservative guess of responsive cases per 1000 by the way because ROA should have 10k selectees in 19.17K so around 520 per thousand. So - I would be surprised if half of them didn't respond.

Waddya think?
 
Britsimon said:
Mostly it hinges on Iran. Iran maxed out in DV2013, then went down to 2200 in DV2014. I think that was a blip, and given the mess they caused last year, I think there will be pressure to not repeat it. So let's assume they get 2500 this year. That would leave 2500 for ROA. There are 866 selectees in the first 4725 so at that rate you could say there are only 184 selectees per hundred (13.5k for 2500).

However, there are also 178 unclaimed in transit cases which are probably not Iran or Nepal (because those embassies are updating) so, there are about 320 selectees in the 4725 plus the DS260 backlog. So my theory is that ROA density will be at least than 260/270 per thousand who respond which would yield at least 220/230 issued per thousand - and that could hit 2500 by about 11.5K. Of course - if Iran only takes 2000 - that would be 2000 CNs higher. See what I mean about Iran?

That number (of 260/270) would be the conservative guess of responsive cases per 1000 by the way because ROA should have 10k selectees in 19.17K so around 520 per thousand. So - I would be surprised if half of them didn't respond.

Waddya think?
Click to expand...
I hear you. I did some calculations using your logic. It does suggest that ROA would peak sooner than last year. I am not going to post that since it would not reveal any new insight. I feel like we are not seeing the whole picture here.
Would it be nice to have last year's density knowledge. I suspect that last year, since there were 2126 more people selected from the two countries, the density flop was higher than this year's 8600-9100. And limiting Nepal was a help for progression (contrary to what I was previously thinking).
I figure Iran is a very unpredictable factor. In 2013 it got 3,802 visas, but Asia got 9785. In 2014 it got 2,386 ones, I guess a bunch of people were left in AP, and those visa slots were sent back to KCC, plus non-response. Thus, KCC did not have to limit Iran out of VB progression concerns.

Anyways, KDU issues real fast right now (total 1611, YTD 929) at this pace they would hit the limit earlier. However, it looks like for ABD-ANK-YRV (total 458, YTD 225) it would be a challenge to reach even 2000 at this pace by the end of the year. But then again, ROA (total 388, YTD 191) is not doing any better as of right now.
 
Sensei-san said:
I hear you. I did some calculations using your logic. It does suggest that ROA would peak sooner than last year. I am not going to post that since it would not reveal any new insight. I feel like we are not seeing the whole picture here.
Would it be nice to have last year's density knowledge. I suspect that last year, since there were 2126 more people selected from the two countries, the density flop was higher than this year's 8600-9100. And limiting Nepal was a help for progression (contrary to what I was previously thinking).
I figure Iran is a very unpredictable factor. In 2013 it got 3,802 visas, but Asia got 9785. In 2014 it got 2,386 ones, I guess a bunch of people were left in AP, and those visa slots were sent back to KCC, plus non-response. Thus, KCC did not have to limit Iran out of VB progression concerns.

Anyways, KDU issues real fast right now (total 1611, YTD 929) at this pace they would hit the limit earlier. However, it looks like for ABD-ANK-YRV (total 458, YTD 225) it would be a challenge to reach even 2000 at this pace by the end of the year. But then again, ROA (total 388, YTD 191) is not doing any better as of right now.
Click to expand...

The density in general for AS seems higher this year (and for at Nepal in particular). Last year the additional selectees were chosen for Iran and Nepal, but the cutoff for Nepal at 9500 effectively excluded about 600/700 cases.

When considering Iranian pace you have to consider the AP cases. Most Iranian AP cases do get approved - it just delays things by 4 to 5 months. So - it is a fair bet to assume that most of the Iranian cases in AP right now will get issued - but that 4 to 5 month delay will keep the issued number in that 2000 to 2500 range...
 
Hi all , i could not famillar with this page my case number is 72xx,
how many visa issued for Iranian till this time , is any chance ?
When we will go for interview?
 
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Farzadpar said:
Hi all , i could not famillar with this page my case number is 72xx,
how many visa issued for Iranian till this time , is any chance ?
When we will go for interview?
Click to expand...

Your case number is good and you should get an interview around July or August. However, the majority of Iranian cases are subjected to additional background checks after interview, and those checks seem to require at least 4 months. The checks are performed under a period of Administrative Processing (AP). Since the rules of the DV program mean no embassy can issue a DV2015 case after September 30th, there is significant risk that your case will not have time to go through AP. The risk of AP is higher if you have worked for the Iranian government, Iranian military and certain industries.
 
Britsimon said:
The density in general for AS seems higher this year (and for at Nepal in particular). Last year the additional selectees were chosen for Iran and Nepal, but the cutoff for Nepal at 9500 effectively excluded about 600/700 cases.

When considering Iranian pace you have to consider the AP cases. Most Iranian AP cases do get approved - it just delays things by 4 to 5 months. So - it is a fair bet to assume that most of the Iranian cases in AP right now will get issued - but that 4 to 5 month delay will keep the issued number in that 2000 to 2500 range...
Click to expand...
Got it. I am waiting to see the VB numbers for May. I started looking at the numbers trying to get an idea if I should go back to my original country to put together all the documents which can only be done in person and is an expensive trip too. With my cn in upper as12xxx, I will probably know whether I am current only in July. So I guess, I will have to make a decision whether to go to the original country or not with this uncertainty about getting current.
By the way, how did you figure that Nepal was limited at 9100 and Iran at 8600 in the draw, but not the other way around?
 
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Sensei-san said:
Got it. I am waiting to see the VB numbers for May. I started looking at the numbers trying to get an idea if I should go back to my original country to put together all the documents which can only be done in person and is an expensive trip too. With my cn in upper as12xxx, I will probably know whether I am current only in July. So I guess, I will have to make a decision whether to go to the original country or not with this uncertainty about getting current.
By the way, how did you figure that Nepal was limited at 9100 and Iran at 8600 in the draw, but not the other way around?
Click to expand...

People from Nepal told me their CNs....
 
I think that Iranian AP process on this year pend on relation between government!
So this year they have very good meeting(5+1 and Iran) and want to make agreement.the we see that AP is less than 4 months!after end of this month. :)
I think so ,must to see end of this month for analyse the ceac data cut-off and final ! :rolleyes:
 
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I've been doing some numerology with the CEAC numbers, and found something interesting.

OC has been issued 251 visas so far, after four months of interviews. If we assume a linear progression, we can multiply this by 12/5 to project issued visas to the year's end: 602.

If we presume the number of AoS applicants is proportional to last year, we get (831/760) * 100 = 109 AoS people.

So, if we continue at the same rate through the rest of the year, we'll be issued 711 visas -- 120 below the estimated quota. Some hopeful part of me hopes that we might see an increase in pace over the next VBs.

Then again, looking at last year's data, there's no way a prediction like this would work. My numerology is predicated (ha! predicated numerology) on embassies being better about updating CEAC than last year.

Well, that's my fun for the evening. I might try SA tomorrow and see what I come up with. AF, AS and EU have special cutoffs and are way too hard.
 
connectedspace said:
I've been doing some numerology with the CEAC numbers, and found something interesting.

OC has been issued 251 visas so far, after four months of interviews. If we assume a linear progression, we can multiply this by 12/5 to project issued visas to the year's end: 602.

If we presume the number of AoS applicants is proportional to last year, we get (831/760) * 100 = 109 AoS people.

So, if we continue at the same rate through the rest of the year, we'll be issued 711 visas -- 120 below the estimated quota. Some hopeful part of me hopes that we might see an increase in pace over the next VBs.

Then again, looking at last year's data, there's no way a prediction like this would work. My numerology is predicated (ha! predicated numerology) on embassies being better about updating CEAC than last year.

Well, that's my fun for the evening. I might try SA tomorrow and see what I come up with. AF, AS and EU have special cutoffs and are way too hard.
Click to expand...

That linear progression calculation doesn't work because there is a natural increase in pace toward the end of the year. Having said that, for OC it does feel like they are perhaps a little behind the pace.
 
Britsimon said:
That linear progression calculation doesn't work because there is a natural increase in pace toward the end of the year. Having said that, for OC it does feel like they are perhaps a little behind the pace.
Click to expand...
Are the AoS historical numbers available anywhere?
 
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