2014 winner need your help
- Thread starter Gc2014
- Start date
Hopenewsun
Registered Users (C)
Oh dear britsimon
I cant thank you enough for your kind help and your offer for help... I will start working on that soon, the way you suggested....
But as you see given that i have a not low number... Do you think that i should start on that soon? Or shall I wait for the begining of 2014 for a more fair time period before getting the documents,, another thing as you said regarding my number، i am afraid that i wont catch the interviews as i compare to 2013 people im my number range got current in august within "all current"... Am still confused and cannot settle on work and money savings and ... Etc
Primary education does not matter if you have a higher degree.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Yeah you have plenty of time, so no need to rush to it. Might be worth an email to Berenice just to see what she says so at least you can relax about that.
Regarding your number, it is too early to tell how DV2014 will go. I don't think your number is too high to get a visa, but it will be processed late in the process. You just have to be patient and use the time to prepare well...
Best of luck to you.
I have a problem.. In 2013 DV lottery, the recent current figure they have published for the month of July to Asia is 9850 . But after that, for August & September it's still there as "CURRENT" .. Does it mean that they have interviewed all the winners for 2013 and that is 9850 ? Or they have been interviewing winners for August & September and will publish the final amount after the September 2013 which they have actually interviewed in August 2013 & September 2013?
Britsimon
Super Moderator
The number 9850 is nothing to do with the CNs they have actually interviewed.
Each month the visa bulletin shows the case number (for each region) that is a cutoff point. If your case number is below that number then it is possible to have an interview scheduled. Assuming you submitted your forms early enough that will happen.
Once they publish the word CURRENT it means that they are trying to schedule interviews for all remaining numbers. They will not update that word with the actual number later because that is NOT what that number means.
Kayend
Active Member
Current mean Visa Office have enough visa for the remaining unprocessed visa applicants. And if you check CEAC web site, you will see that it is around 10700 case # being interviewed in Sept, so you can assume for DV-13, the highest case # is around 11k. That also mean all applicants have their interview in 11 months time.
Dear Britsimon/Kayend,
1)Then we cannot get to know the exact CN in 2013 DV for Asia?
2))I saw so many predictions that the highest CN in 2013 DV for Asia would be about 16k.. So all the predictions are wrong ?
3) Let say , For an example, they have interviewed all the remaining CN in July 2013 and finished the process for 2013 DV. Then what is the figure that they are going to publish in August 2013 & September 2013 in visa bulletin ?
4)Final conclusion that, all the CN are definitely getting interviewed?
5)They have published bulletin of Asia in November for 2014 DV as 2500 and this is same speed which was in 2013 DV. But in DV 2014 there are about 23k CN even my CN is 18xxx . So will they be able to achieve that amount of CN if they progress like this?
6)i cannot log in to CEAC once i put my CN as they are telling it is invalid.
Kindly advise me on these problems my friends..........
1)Then we cannot get to know the exact CN in 2013 DV for Asia?
2))I saw so many predictions that the highest CN in 2013 DV for Asia would be about 16k.. So all the predictions are wrong ?
3) Let say , For an example, they have interviewed all the remaining CN in July 2013 and finished the process for 2013 DV. Then what is the figure that they are going to publish in August 2013 & September 2013 in visa bulletin ?
4)Final conclusion that, all the CN are definitely getting interviewed?
5)They have published bulletin of Asia in November for 2014 DV as 2500 and this is same speed which was in 2013 DV. But in DV 2014 there are about 23k CN even my CN is 18xxx . So will they be able to achieve that amount of CN if they progress like this?
6)i cannot log in to CEAC once i put my CN as they are telling it is invalid.
Kindly advise me on these problems my friends..........
Britsimon
Super Moderator
1. Raevsky will get a good idea about the highest Case Number for each region by interrogating the CEAC system. Some embassies are not using CEAC so it is not 100% certain but pretty good.
2. I think you may be confused between case numbers, visa allocated and so on. I’m not sure what you are trying to figure out, but 2013 is quite different to 2014 so best to stop over thinking it.
3. Again they are NOT going to update the visa bulletins that have already been published. The number is NOT the case numbers they have processed – it is just the cutoff number (or current which has special meaning). The word CURRENT will never be updated on the already published bulletins.
4. Sort of. There may have been people in DV2013 who wanted but could not get an interview – we don’t know for sure, but basically there were enough visas for all applicants in the regions where the word CURRENT appeared on the bulletin.
5. The speed can increase or decrease month to month. There are many factors which affect the pace of the processing. However, you are correct in saying they need to increase their speed if they wanted to interview all Case Numbers. However, that is NOT their objective. They probably will not interview all case numbers in DV2014 (in my opinion). At some point the global quota will be reached and the program will stop. AS18XXX is in a risky range in my opinion – you will have to wait and see how the progress continues for the next few months to get a better idea. Fingers crossed for you.
6. CEAC will not have your number yet – it won’t until your number is current.
Thank you sir... I'm at a risk...
((( my dreams....... For Europe also they have reduced the CN that they are going to interview for November... i don't know what these people are doing... But most of the time president Obama says that they need more people to their country....
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Thank you sir... I'm at a risk...
You can't really judge the speed based on two months. You have to remember that the September and October VBs are published before a single DV2014 interview has taken place. So - as the months move on USCIS will have a better idea about how many people are turning up for interviews and being approved or rejected. That information will let them tune the process a bit better to achieve the best pace they can, but remembering that they will be acting with the belief that this year is oversubscribed which was not the case in DV2013 for instance.
Don't lose hope - this is a long process and really NONE of us know what will happen over the coming months.
Kayend
Active Member
Thank you sir... I'm at a risk...
Remember the case # and number of selectees ratio are different between dv13 and dv14. In dv13, the max case # is ~11k but the selectees are 16k, what that mean is that there could be more derivatives per case number so that explained why case # is lesser than number of selectees. Now in dv14, so far we know max case # is 27k (reported by some winner in this forum) and the number of selectees is 23k which is about 45% more selectees than in dv13. If you look at the ratio, dv13 is 0.69 selectees per case # and in dv14 is 1.17 selectees per case #. So obviously the speed of visa allocation should be faster because it need more case # to cover the same number of visa compare to dv13. But this is some simple statistics that show it should be faster than last year if all factors are the same as last year. But no one know how it turn out, so based on your CN, you will know your chances much better when we have 6 months cut off published. In other word, if you take last year progress to predict whether you have your interview, it is wrong statistically. But again, anything can happen, let hope for the best for every dv14 winners.
Thanks a lot to both of you.. So according to your advice, all the selectees don't have a case number since it includes derivatives. So only principal applicant gets a CN ? Also when will they be able to publish December cut off ? Better i'll start my document collecting process early next YEAR..
Keep in touch my friends... your helpful kind hearts will bring you the success..
Keep in touch my friends... your helpful kind hearts will bring you the success..
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Britsimon
Super Moderator
NO! The case numbers DO NOT include (or leave space for) derivatives. This point comes up from time to time but it is not true. The selectee gets a case number, derivatives are related to THAT case number and no gap is left to make space for the derivatives. CEAC data proves this without doubt!
Check CEAC - https://ceac.state.gov/CEACStatTracker/Status.aspx
Enter a case number of 2013EU8 (that is 2013EU00000008).
The immigrant case number shows as 2013EU8 01 (01 is always the principal applicant). This applicant had 3 family members so their data shows:-
2013EU8 01 KEV Issued
2013EU8 02 KEV Issued
2013EU8 03 KEV Issued
2013EU8 04 KEV Issued
02, 03, and 04 are derivatives with the same case number.
If they had their own case numbers the derivatives would be EU9, 10, and 11 - they aren't. Alternatively the three derivatives would leave three gaps so the next available number would be EU12 - right? However that is not the case either, check 9, 10 and 11. You will see that 9 and 10 are holes (selectees disqualified before being notified)
When you check EU11 you see a family of 4 (sadly, refused). EU12 shows a selectee with one derivative.
This is absolute proof that the case numbers do not include the derivatives in any way.
By the way another common misconception is that case numbers are global when in fact they are numbered within a region so just as 2013EU8 exists, 2013AS8 also exists as does 2013AF8 and 2013NA8. Again - absolute proof.
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Kayend
Active Member
Each case # might have more than 1 selectee, and the holes created is not because of derivatives. Holes only get created when the disqualification happened during selection. What I wanted to say is that it might have more case # issued compare to dv13 because of less derivatives attached to each case #. For example, 2013eu8 is a case # and 2013eu 02 is not a distinct case #, it just attached to the principal case #. Look at dv13, 16k selectees and only 11k case # issued with holes in it. So even without holes it need 16k case # to fit 16k selectees. So, only explanation is the in dv13 the ratio for derivatives per case # is much higher compare dv14.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
I'm not very clear on what you are trying to say but the bit I bolded above is not correct. The derivatives do not have any impact on the number of selectees. Derivatives do however count toward the 50k limit, so in actual fact the global quota will be met from around 35k selectees.
Kayend
Active Member
Do you mean the 140k selectees in DV14 does not include derivatives? If that is case, it might have more than 200k going for 50k visa and that is less than 25%. Historically, from selectees to visa success rate is about 40-50%. Why DV14 have to increase it selectees by 40%? It just not logical to me. I might be wrong, but based on logic thinking I don't think derivatives is not part of the selectees.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Thew 140K does not include derivatives. You can prove that by looking at the CEAC data (as above) and also previous years stats for winners and derivative visas issued. The wording also is quite clear and yes the fall out rate is huge.
The increase of selectees was a surprise to everyone - but it certainly means (in my opinion) that lots of people will be left without a visa.