Retrogression: Doing the Math

[berkeleybee]

Rkrishna22 posted on another thread and I replied to his post there before I realized that we have a new place to discuss the retrogression:

Originally Posted by rkrishna22

I was thinking through this Retrogression. For a moment, I wanted to play advocate from USCIS side and see how I can work through these numbers:

Assumptions:
1) Total Green cards of 140,000 for a given fiscal year
2) 28.6 % each for a given category EB1, EB2, AND EB3. Let us stop at this and assume that no over-flow from one category to another as this is just the first quarter of fiscal
3) Per country limit of 7.1 %
4) Also, we all are aware that last few years where the dates stayed current was because of AC21 and a lot of visas were issued from the pool recaptured from earlier years' un-used quota. We all should remember and not question why suddenly there is a concept of priority date now. We should have seen it coming, I think
5) The annual limit be divided into 4 quarters as, again, we are in the first quarter
6) I would like to, an un-written rule, follow a monthly quota system within the quarter
7) Let me address only one country for simplicity sake
8) Average family size 3

I hope these assumptions are not wrong, please correct me if I am wrong.

Step1: Per country limit for the year 9,800 (rounded) 7.1 % of 140,000
Step2: Limit for each category 2,700 (rounded) 28.6% Step 1
Step3: Limit for a category for 1 Qtr 675 25 % of Step 2
Step4: Limit for a category for 1 month 225 1/3 of Step 3 (imagined)
Step4: Family Limit for a cat for 1 month 75 1/3 of Step 4

That is if there are 75 applications that either BEC OR DOL has communicated to Dept of State as having cleared or USCIS has communicated to State Dept are either approved 140 or ready to adjudicate petitions which has been already received, the Dept of State has nothing else to do but take the dates back to those dates.

I did exactly the same sort of calculations. Slightly different assumptions produce slightly different numbers but the big picture is the same -- there are only 225-250 immigrant numbers per month available to Indians in each of the EB-1, EB-2 and EB-3 categories. Now I'm wondering why I didn't think of this before. The clearing of the labor backlog made this crunch inevitable. The greatest number of labor cert applications and probably Indian tech labor applications came through in the 2001-2002 period. I assume we are talking about tens of thousands of ultimately successful applications, if not a hundred thousand. At this rate of (2700-2800 per year for each of the EB-1, 2, 3 categories) I can only imagine how long the retrogression will last.

There will be no change unless the total number of EB visa numbers is increased dramatically and the per-country limits are increased dramatically.

Rajiv? Comments?

[singhsa3]

I do not agree with you and my calculations are below:

Employment based visas issued for India
2004 ~38K out of 155K
2003 ~21K out of 182K
2002 ~42K out of 175K
2001 ~39K out of 179K
2000 ~15K out of 107K
1999 ~5.3K out of 56K
These numbers are approximately 25% of total employment based visas issued(remember that some unused visa are recaptured, thus total is more than 140k)
Thus, if the backlog is of 300K cases=>25-30% cases will be from India ~100K
If 140K is the limit for 2005 onwards => Indians can use => 35Kvisa per year => It will take three years before the priority date becomes current=>2008

[newbies]

Originally Posted by singhsa3

I do not agree with you and my calculations are below:

Employment based visas issued for India
2004 ~38K out of 155K
2003 ~21K out of 182K
2002 ~42K out of 175K
2001 ~39K out of 179K
2000 ~15K out of 107K
1999 ~5.3K out of 56K
These numbers are approximately 25% of total employment based visas issued(remember that some unused visa are recaptured, thus total is more than 140k)
Thus, if the backlog is of 300K cases=>25-30% cases will be from India ~100K
If 140K is the limit for 2005 onwards => Indians can use => 35Kvisa per year => It will take three years before the priority date becomes current=>2008

Why? Does DOS say max per country is 7.1% total quota?

[singhsa3]

Originally Posted by newbies

Why? Does DOS say max per country is 7.1% total quota?

That is valid only if visa numbers are unavailable, any unsued visa numbers are redistributed.

[kartik59]

Here is the link to the USCIS doc reflecting the published visa-issued numbers for 2002 - 2004: http://uscis.gov/graphics/shared/sta...idents2004.pdf

[aisharan]

Originally Posted by singhsa3

I do not agree with you and my calculations are below:

Employment based visas issued for India
2004 ~38K out of 155K
2003 ~21K out of 182K
2002 ~42K out of 175K
2001 ~39K out of 179K
2000 ~15K out of 107K
1999 ~5.3K out of 56K
These numbers are approximately 25% of total employment based visas issued(remember that some unused visa are recaptured, thus total is more than 140k)
Thus, if the backlog is of 300K cases=>25-30% cases will be from India ~100K
If 140K is the limit for 2005 onwards => Indians can use => 35Kvisa per year => It will take three years before the priority date becomes current=>2008

hmm if 100K is the backlog and Indians can use 35K visa per year your math is corrrect that by year 2008 the priority dates for folks with priority date of 2005 will become current. What about the 350K indians that are hoping to apply between 2005 and 2008? Baba Adam did not think about the future variable of applicants.

Also, dates have retrogressed by over 6 - 7 years 100K seems a little light when it comes to talking about total backlog numbers.

Running a monte carlo simulation the following scenarios can occur

Scenario 1 (Deviation +- 2) - an aggressive bet is the priority dates to move 2 months for every month elapsed - Given the aggressive scenario dates will become current for 2005 applicants in year 2009.

Scenario 2 (Deviation +-1) - A conservative bet is that priority dates will move 1-1.5 months for every month elapsed - Given the conservative scenario dates will become current for 2005 applicants around 2010-2011.

Scenario 3 (Deviation +-3) - Unexpected variable Indians realize that US is not a heavenly destination any longer and start migrating to European - Pacific Countries (salary not sexy but exchange rates are steady as opposed to US where salary has stagnated for CS professionals but risk of holding cash position in ever falling dollar)

Scenario 4 (Deviation >+3 < -3) - Special bill passed to make all dates current by increasing the yearly quota.

My humble 2 cents :-) Cheers

[dbwr]

Very Nice....Math Guys...hear..
Hope, US wont loss these adept persons...


Bottom line, The things that will solve the problems...

2. Capture additional Visa Numbers of 60k Avilable from 2001 to 2004, to solve allready 485 filed peoples hunger.
3. Increase the number of annual limit which will solve world hunger
4. Monthly quota limit instead of three months, which will solve 140 approved and waiting people's hunger.
5. Extension of EAD for three years..for people whose FBI/Name Check is pending. for them

Hope they consider all of themmm...to solve every ones hunger...

[berkeleybee]

Originally Posted by aisharan

hmm if 100K is the backlog and Indians can use 35K visa per year your math is corrrect that by year 2008 the priority dates for folks with priority date of 2005 will become current. What about the 350K indians that are hoping to apply between 2005 and 2008? Baba Adam did not think about the future variable of applicants.

Also, dates have retrogressed by over 6 - 7 years 100K seems a little light when it comes to talking about total backlog numbers.

Running a monte carlo simulation the following scenarios can occur

Scenario 1 (Deviation +- 2) - an aggressive bet is the priority dates to move 2 months for every month elapsed - Given the aggressive scenario dates will become current for 2005 applicants in year 2009.

Scenario 2 (Deviation +-1) - A conservative bet is that priority dates will move 1-1.5 months for every month elapsed - Given the conservative scenario dates will become current for 2005 applicants around 2010-2011.

Scenario 3 (Deviation +-3) - Unexpected variable Indians realize that US is not a heavenly destination any longer and start migrating to European - Pacific Countries (salary not sexy but exchange rates are steady as opposed to US where salary has stagnated for CS professionals but risk of holding cash position in ever falling dollar)

Scenario 4 (Deviation >+3 < -3) - Special bill passed to make all dates current by increasing the yearly quota.

Maybe the coffee hasn't kicked in, and I'm missing something.

BTW, where did you find those estimates of the number of employment immigrant numbers for India? Remember also that the numbers you report reflect the recapture of unused visas from previous years; the AC21 recaptured immigrant numbers are all used up. So we cannot assume that your 25% trend will continue.

BTW, I did ask my attorney if my calculations made sense but she hasn't got back to me.

What I want to know is whether there is a source that reports employment based labor cert applications by country. That is the vital figure -- how many Indian EB-1, 2 and 3 applicants are pickling in the backlog.

[septa]

Oh..what a Math..mind boggling..IS 2+2=4 ? oh...is it?

[aisharan]

Originally Posted by berkeleybee

Maybe the coffee hasn't kicked in, and I'm missing something.

BTW, where did you find those estimates of the number of employment immigrant numbers for India? Remember also that the numbers you report reflect the recapture of unused visas from previous years; the AC21 recaptured immigrant numbers are all used up. So we cannot assume that your 25% trend will continue.

BTW, I did ask my attorney if my calculations made sense but she hasn't got back to me.

:p No get out of here she hasn't got back to you, I am surprised she did not slap you instead? Perhaps she thought that talking about Math while practicing Law is a cheap way to score a date with her? I suggest the following tactic: logically speaking you like everyone else should be stuck with lawyers for the next ten years as there is no scope for a green card - hence it is safe to conclude that you can expect your attorney to drain your bank accounts at a slow pace, therefore you have a right to say to her "hey baby lets get down tonight..ta na na na ha ha ha. No seriously though I am still a little amazed that you shared the math with a lawyer and expected her to get back to you with an answer...if your lawyer gets back to you she is the biggest moron in the history of law practice, or either she is setting up the stage for getting more money out of you"

What I want to know is whether there is a source that reports employment based labor cert applications by country. That is the vital figure -- how many Indian EB-1, 2 and 3 applicants are pickling in the backlog.

Source Facts what are you going to do with these? I don't think at this point you should plan things around when you can potentially get your green card

[infostarved]

This is the best thread I've seen so far.... let's keep it that way guys and not take pot shots at each other. I for one would much rather see analysis than hear other people's rants... I have enough of my own :-)

Berkeleybee... your question about country-wise classification of labor approval numbers... cant you extrapolate that from H1B country-wise numbers (I dont have them, but they should not be too hard to find, right?).
I mean... after all... other than H1B who does labor?

To be honest I need a primer on all the regulations in play... but once I am done with my fact gathering I hope I can chip in with some analysis of my own.

[jllag1]

Originally Posted by infostarved

Berkeleybee... your question about country-wise classification of labor approval numbers... cant you extrapolate that from H1B country-wise numbers (I dont have them, but they should not be too hard to find, right?).
I mean... after all... other than H1B who does labor?

You probably can closely corelate H1B numbers to EB3. For EB1 and non-labor cert EB2, there won't be a close relationship.

[Raj1994]

One thing to consider:

The per category limit for a country is not 28.6% of 9800. The 28.6% applies to the total among all countries, and is 28.6% of the 140,000.

In other words the 9800 per country could be distributed unequally among EB1, EB2, and EB3, subject to the constraint that the total of EB1 (or EB2 or EB3) from all countries does not exceed 28.6% of 140,000.

Looking at the visa bulletins, there seems to be a different quota for dependents. Can someone comment?

[berkeleybee]

All,

Here is what she had to say:

"Your numbers look right and I'll be interested to see if there are reports released in the near future that confirm your figures. I'm sure that more information will likely be forthcoming about this because there are many others like you who will be affected by this backlog and the visa cut off dates will certainly receive a great deal of attention and analysis in the coming weeks and months.

We will forward this on to a government official who works with these calculations to see if they will comment on this."

BTW, happily my firm is paying for the attorney. I haven't spent a cent on all of this so far. Not to gloat over all of you who are spending your own money, but really, our attorneys have not caused this problem.

I hadn't been paying attention to the details until recently, and now I'd just like to know the facts: (a) to see how deep the water is (b) once you know the extent of the problem (what is the source, will the backlog be cleared in 10yrs? 14yrs?) to figure out what changes can reasonably be demanded.
Raving on without knowing the facts and figures won't get us very far.

These figures suggest that our problems will end only if per-country limits on employment based immigration are removed (see Dinesh Shenoy article in this forum). However, this is not likely to happen in the short or maybe even the medium term. In the interim, asking for the type of changes suggested in Dinesh Shenoy's 2005 article is all that seems possible/likely to work.

At the very least we should press the Department of State (and DOL) to be more forthcoming with the details/figures -- this (backlog by country, category and year; immigration number allocation by country, category and year; method of calculating visa cutoff dates) is not protected information, it ought to be public information. If there is resistance, perhaps a Freedom of Information Act request needs to be filed.

Does anyone know what lobbying group/coalition managed to get the H-1B cap raised in previous years? That is the sort of clout that we need.

[berkeleybee]

Originally Posted by Raj1994

One thing to consider:

The per category limit for a country is not 28.6% of 9800. The 28.6% applies to the total among all countries, and is 28.6% of the 140,000.

In other words the 9800 per country could be distributed unequally among EB1, EB2, and EB3, subject to the constraint that the total of EB1 (or EB2 or EB3) from all countries does not exceed 28.6% of 140,000.

Looking at the visa bulletins, there seems to be a different quota for dependents. Can someone comment?

There is a cutoff date for EB-1, EB-2 and EB-3 -- this means that there is a binding constraint on each category. So a conservative assumption is that each category has only 2700-2800 immigrant numbers available.

Of course, the best thing to do would be to press the Department of State to actually spell out how it allocates immigrant numbers, give examples.

[nato]

Originally Posted by infostarved

This is the best thread I've seen so far.... let's keep it that way guys and not take pot shots at each other. I for one would much rather see analysis than hear other people's rants... I have enough of my own :-)

Berkeleybee... your question about country-wise classification of labor approval numbers... cant you extrapolate that from H1B country-wise numbers (I dont have them, but they should not be too hard to find, right?).
I mean... after all... other than H1B who does labor?

To be honest I need a primer on all the regulations in play... but once I am done with my fact gathering I hope I can chip in with some analysis of my own.

[gcva]

Originally Posted by berkeleybee

There is a cutoff date for EB-1, EB-2 and EB-3 -- this means that there is a binding constraint on each category. So a conservative assumption is that each category has only 2700-2800 immigrant numbers available.

Of course, the best thing to do would be to press the Department of State to actually spell out how it allocates immigrant numbers, give examples.

EB3 is devided into EB31(SPeciality workers and Professionals) and EB32(Otherworkers) and EB3(Schedule A). EB32 Quota is limited to 10000/year and percountry limit comes to be 700 visas.Since, EB3 Scheduled A are using 50000 recaptured visas they may not come for competition with EB31.Most of the EB3 filers of this forum are of EB31 which may only have 2000 visas per year per country.

[abhathakur]

I looked at OIS supplied data, http://uscis.gov/graphics/shared/sta...MM2000list.htm

for the year 2000 as it is prior to the period when the recaptured 200000 visas made all employment based categories for all chargeabilities current. And the Family-based visas issued to India that year were 14267 whereas employment based ones were 15557. Assuming that we are back in the 2000 status ( no recpatured unused visas available) and based on additional facts like a total of 107,024 Employment Based visas were issued that year of which 27706 were EB1, 20304 were EB2 and 49736 were EB3 and then others.

So in the year 2000, Indians got ~ 14.5% of employment based visas available to the world (so maybe in the 4th FY quarter 2000, unused visas from other countries were made available to us).

So in FY2006, with standard 140000 employment based visas available, India can hope to get 20300. Of which based on derived percenatges:
EB-1 ~ 5255
EB-2 ~ 3851
EB-3 ~ 9433

and since no more than 27% of employment based visas can be made available in any FY quarter; for EB-2 the first three FY06 quarters may have ~ 800 visas available in each quarter and then the fourth quarter maybe slightly higher. I don't know ~ 300 EB-2 visas a month will correspond to priority dates moving by how much, not knowing the distribution of number of I-140 approved I-485 ready applications and their prirority dates but I think by the start of 2nd quarter for FY06, we should have moved from Nov99 to at least Jan 01, where most of the apps must be packed in. I vote for a movement of 2 PD months for every 1 calendar month on an average in EB-2 category, thus opting for option 1 in the posting by whoever did a Monte Carlo simulation of this !!!

[nato]

to do the jobs which americans don't do..
legal professional, skilled immigrants take up american jobs some way in their mindset

Originally Posted by DV_EU_WIN

Hello guys,

I'm from Europe. So my situation is a little bit better than yours from India.
But let's face it: Immigration into the US is no longer desired by the authorities ! I give myself another 12 months. If I don't have the GC by then. Bye. Bye.

Good Luck Guys !

[abhathakur]

Originally Posted by Raj1994

One thing to consider:

The per category limit for a country is not 28.6% of 9800. The 28.6% applies to the total among all countries, and is 28.6% of the 140,000.

In other words the 9800 per country could be distributed unequally among EB1, EB2, and EB3, subject to the constraint that the total of EB1 (or EB2 or EB3) from all countries does not exceed 28.6% of 140,000.

Looking at the visa bulletins, there seems to be a different quota for dependents. Can someone comment?

The per country limit is no more than ~7% of Family-based and Employment based numbers available to the world taken together, that works out to ~25600 or something. But there are other clauses in the Immigration Act that may cause the numbers to exceed that in order to not have "unjustified scenarios"; for e.g. different members of the family in different statuses, where the primary applicant got a visa and the dependents would not if the per country limit were to be followed strictly. Also, I believe the unused numbers in employment based categories by other countries, do get distributed to where they are needed in the final quarter of any fiscal year, which is why you see better PD movement in bulletins from those months as opposed to others. If you refer to the Visa Bulletin of FY2005, which is the CLOSING statement on FY2005, DOS clearly tells you what the per country limit for FY2005 ultimately ended up being, considering there were 8000 more visas added to the usual 140000 for employment based preference for FY2005. Hope this helps.

[abhathakur]

Originally Posted by berkeleybee

Maybe the coffee hasn't kicked in, and I'm missing something.

BTW, where did you find those estimates of the number of employment immigrant numbers for India? Remember also that the numbers you report reflect the recapture of unused visas from previous years; the AC21 recaptured immigrant numbers are all used up. So we cannot assume that your 25% trend will continue.

BTW, I did ask my attorney if my calculations made sense but she hasn't got back to me.

What I want to know is whether there is a source that reports employment based labor cert applications by country. That is the vital figure -- how many Indian EB-1, 2 and 3 applicants are pickling in the backlog.

I was stimulated to analyze available data with the OIS (http://uscis.gov/graphics/shared/statistics/index.htm) after reading your initial posting; I agree there is a great sense of comfort in numbers, assuming the underlying assumptions are sane; numbers give one a great sense/illusion of control/predictability over one's currently very uncertain/morbid immigration future here in the US.

In any case, I was wondering if u had the time to play with the OIS provided archive data and should u do that, by how much would you alter ur current projections ?

[abhathakur]

Originally Posted by Raj1994

One thing to consider:

The per category limit for a country is not 28.6% of 9800. The 28.6% applies to the total among all countries, and is 28.6% of the 140,000.

In other words the 9800 per country could be distributed unequally among EB1, EB2, and EB3, subject to the constraint that the total of EB1 (or EB2 or EB3) from all countries does not exceed 28.6% of 140,000.

Looking at the visa bulletins, there seems to be a different quota for dependents. Can someone comment?

Yes you are right about different quota for dependents, the floowing data demonstrates that:

For every FY the bracketed number is the per country limit number for the FY and the other number is the actual number of immigrant visas (Family + Employment) issued in the year to India, that number is mostly (4 out of 7 times) way greater than the limit thus proving that the dependents are not counted towards the quota.

2005, ? (26211)-The actual issued not know since still last month of 05
2004, 51750 (30130)
2003, 35919 (25620)
2002, 54287 (25704)
2001, 54453 (29204)
2000, 29824 (30583)
1999, 20541 (27083)
1998, 24908 (25620)

All information collated from DOS Visa Bulletins and OIS data.

[priyargc]

This is my view for current retrogression. Please read and comment.

Retrogration is a simple theory of supply (availibility of visa number) and Demand(Valid applications in this category).
take the example of EB2 for Indian Category.
USCIS has reviewed situation on August 10, 2005 and found supply demand is under control and decalare EB2 category current for September 2005. logically, If demand was more, they would have retrograte this category in September only. They didn't means demand and supply was balance as per their criteria.

Now they reviewed situation on September 9, 2005 and decalared retrogration to Nov. 1999. This means; they recieved more application between Aug. 10 to Sept. 9, which created Demand > Supply. Technically in case of retrogration they need to give oldest priority date, which has pending case. May be they have very few cases that old.
Now guess, how many application they might have recieved more than supply between Aug 9 to Sept 10? 2800? 5600? 8400?

If they recieved 2700 applications more than supply during Aug 10 and Sept 9 (and assume they will recieve 100 new applications, which have PD before Nov. 99), after one year the category will be current again (because yearly EB2 quota for indian is 2800). If it was 5600, it will take two years to be Current again.

The persons who have already filed I 485, need not to be worry much.

Please comment all including attorny.

[niraj724]

hello
that sounds optimistic.
i have an approved I -140 (Eb-1). i was planning to file for 485/ead/ap next week. Now in view of ths retrogression, would my Ead/AP be processed even though I understand that my 485 would have to wait till my Pd is reached.
All opinions welcome
thanks

[infostarved]

Originally Posted by niraj724

hello
that sounds optimistic.
i have an approved I -140 (Eb-1). i was planning to file for 485/ead/ap next week. Now in view of ths retrogression, would my Ead/AP be processed even though I understand that my 485 would have to wait till my Pd is reached.
All opinions welcome
thanks

Yes. But your 485 application better reach their doorstep by/before (?) Sep 30th.

[nato]

Jan 1st they had a cutoff of Jan02 so in 6 months they got so many applications in EB3 that they had to cutoff by another 4 yrs.

Also PERM flood was in EB2 not EB3, so EB2 you could still say that they got the count so huge in Aug-Sept that it had to end up in huge BL or 99

Originally Posted by priyargc

This is my view for current retrogression. Please read and comment.

Retrogration is a simple theory of supply (availibility of visa number) and Demand(Valid applications in this category).
take the example of EB2 for Indian Category.
USCIS has reviewed situation on August 10, 2005 and found supply demand is under control and decalare EB2 category current for September 2005. logically, If demand was more, they would have retrograte this category in September only. They didn't means demand and supply was balance as per their criteria.

Now they reviewed situation on September 9, 2005 and decalared retrogration to Nov. 1999. This means; they recieved more application between Aug. 10 to Sept. 9, which created Demand > Supply. Technically in case of retrogration they need to give oldest priority date, which has pending case. May be they have very few cases that old.
Now guess, how many application they might have recieved more than supply between Aug 9 to Sept 10? 2800? 5600? 8400?

If they recieved 2700 applications more than supply during Aug 10 and Sept 9 (and assume they will recieve 100 new applications, which have PD before Nov. 99), after one year the category will be current again (because yearly EB2 quota for indian is 2800). If it was 5600, it will take two years to be Current again.

The persons who have already filed I 485, need not to be worry much.

Please comment all including attorny.

[Jackolantern]

All PERM cases would have priority dates in 2005, so they cannot push the priority date back to pre-2000.

[deepsa52]

It is fine that people do the math and discuss about possible priority dates, but what about a collective effort to raise this issue with Rajeev and eventually AILA / BCIS ?
It needs some effort , but that is the only option now.

[nato]

already and they added to the count of people seeking visa numbers once their applications are accepted and the number of applications already in the system are good enough for next 5 years of visa numbers consumption, hence the dates backed up by 5 years..there are lot of approvals of 485 from 2005 here in the fourm iteself, thus

Originally Posted by Jackolantern

All PERM cases would have priority dates in 2005, so they cannot push the priority date back to pre-2000.

[infostarved]

Originally Posted by nato

already and they added to the count of people seeking visa numbers once their applications are accepted and the number of applications already in the system are good enough for next 5 years of visa numbers consumption, hence the dates backed up by 5 years..there are lot of approvals of 485 from 2005 here in the fourm iteself, thus

As far as I know, pending 485 applications from people with priority dates after the cutoff date will remain pending till their dates become current. Are you speculating or do you have confirmation that pending 485 applications will get visa numbers allocated to them regardless of their priority date?