Post graphs and stat analysis here - J.Bcis.Res.

[ND022202]

This is The Journal of BCIS Research.
Following the suggestion by eventually and SillyMan, I am starting this thread for posting various kinds of analysis and graphs generated mostly out of kashmir's project.
Everyone can post his/her ideas.

Only original work is accepted .
Make sure you have a PhD or any other equivalent .
Enjoy!

Link to the most recent post

[ND022202]

This is a graph based on kashmir's data. It shows how CSC was working in June on our cases. This is not rumors not lawyers' bullshit, this is pure butter, real science.

The data was calculated as a difference between csv files of 05/31/03 and of today.

[ND022202]

yes, you're right, this is very old series (my own is 02-117).
Out of curiosity, i poked into it with the script courtesy off-patience.
Take a look at the attached graph. 38 cases out of total 256 are still not completed, but they all were touched (transferred or rfeed). I hope some of them are already adjudicated but for some reason weren't updated in the database.

[ND022202]

attached graph shows how this Sept. 25, 2001 series has been doing. It also shows how long it will take to complete, if CSC would keep the April 03 pace (unfortunately, in May they failed).

[eventually]

The graphs look good ND ..

Glad that you have interest in WAC numbers other than yours ..

Thanks!!

[mango_pickle]

Do you have a delta graph for Kashmir's new data?

[chp]

[This is an edited re-post from Kashmir's main thread.]

The attached Excel document displays the statistics regularly posted by Kashmir in two graphic charts. Just import Kashmir's CSV files in the "raw data" sheet to update.

Both charts show all categories stacked up in different colours, with WAC numbers on the X axis. One chart shows the totals (good to see "masses" of cases), the other one shows daily percentages (good to see progress).

This some makes trends clearly visible:

- The "wave" (huh... "ripple") of approvals is around WAC02050, with two-thirds of the cases beyond that in the "resumed" category.

- Almost no cases in 001 to 030, followed by a big spike in 030 to 050 (INS catching up, I assume).

- A bizarre patch of "FP sent" around 170.

[eventually]

CHP, May I suggest something for your charts .. I would have done this myself if you had included data with the XLS sheet.

Can you provide the same color for each of the following groups:

1. approved, completed, card ordered,

2. RFE SENT, RFE received

3. resumed

4. transferred, transferred back

5. FP sent, fp received

6. denied, withdrawn, rejected ..

you got the idea, becoz your graph currently has too many categories and cant trace in detail what is happening .. And make the color contrasting ..

Thats a good graph .. thanks CHP !!

-----------------------
eventually

[chp]

eventually,

I thought about changing colours but I think having random colours with high contrast between successive ones is actually very readable. It looks daunting at first sight but it does not take long to identify what the main colours mean.

Besides, I am surprised that you have trouble doing it yourself. The document should contain the live Excel charts, not just frozen pictures. In Excel (I use Office X on Mac), double-click on the colour patches in the legend to change the colours.

[ND022202]

here is updated graph of last csv - 06/17/03

[mango_pickle]

Thanks ND.
Around 140 approvals until now in June.

[mango_pickle]

Assuming another 60 approvals by end of this month, makes it 200 approvals this month - which probably is better than 0!!!
So, at this pace it could be 2400 per year.
I read some post earlier, which said that there are about 3000 petitions pending in Nov itself (am I right here? correct me, if otherwise). That makes it another year wait before JIT could move to december.
But then JIT just tells you that 70% of the cases approved will be at the date specified in JIT and the rest 30% is a lottery for people who filed in later months.

[ND022202]

following kashmir's last scan here is the fresh graph...
I keep asking myself, why they picked April and not February, which is my favorite?

[Dadagiri]

mango_pickle dont jump onto conclusions

Most of the people who get their applications approved in later months are mostly dependents who follow on join in.
There are only wery few who are luck I would say < 1%

[mango_pickle]

Dada..
How do you know that these later month approvals are join-ins? I mean, whats the basis of your conclusion?

[mango_pickle]

---------------------------------------------------------
ND's post :
I keep asking myself, why they picked April and not February, which is my favorite?
---------------------------------------------------------

Does anybody have any theories on why April is "blessed" ?

[ND022202]

My theory is simple, they just counted 6 month out of October 1st and pulled out a bunch of applications

[BigFanOfBCIS]

Originally posted by ND022202
My theory is simple, they just counted 6 month out of October 1st and pulled out a bunch of applications

Or that April is the time when they stopped shredding at Laguna Niguel. Does anyone else here have this feeling that our applications went into the circular file, and all the stories about the delays are just cover-up?

[Tasse]

Originally posted by BigFanOfBCIS
Or that April is the time when they stopped shredding at Laguna Niguel. Does anyone else here have this feeling that our applications went into the circular file, and all the stories about the delays are just cover-up?

I agree, almost everyone got RFE for renewal EAD and AP regarding I-140, birth and marriage certificates. It means they shredded original documents

[chp]

Here is a printout (in PDF) of the chart produced using the Excel file from my previous post. It's PDF so you can zoom in as close as you want. This is the percentage graph; the totals graph follows in the next post. They are based on 20030622 data.

Incidentally, I discovered that the Excel file actually has a link to an external file rather than the data itself. To use it you need to get one of Kashmir's .csv files, then select the 'Raw Data' sheet, pick Data > Refresh Data and select the data file.

Enjoy,

ChP

Originally posted by chp
[This is an edited re-post from Kashmir's main thread.]

The attached Excel document displays the statistics regularly posted by Kashmir in two graphic charts. Just import Kashmir's CSV files in the "raw data" sheet to update.

Both charts show all categories stacked up in different colours, with WAC numbers on the X axis. One chart shows the totals (good to see "masses" of cases), the other one shows daily percentages (good to see progress).

This some makes trends clearly visible:

- The "wave" (huh... "ripple") of approvals is around WAC02050, with two-thirds of the cases beyond that in the "resumed" category.

- Almost no cases in 001 to 030, followed by a big spike in 030 to 050 (INS catching up, I assume).

- A bizarre patch of "FP sent" around 170.

[chp]

Attached.

Originally posted by chp
Here is a printout (in PDF) of the chart produced using the Excel file from my previous post. It's PDF so you can zoom in as close as you want. This is the percentage graph; the totals graph follows in the next post. They are based on 20030622 data.

[ND022202]

the attached graph is based on BCIS statistics published every month. The link to latest data is here http://www.immigration.gov/graphics/...03/BENEFIT.HTM

10-month moving average apporach was used to make graph look regular and scientific.
I'd like to type here "Enjoy!", but as you can see, there is nothing to enjoy...

[eventually]

ND022202,

Thanks .. I could hardly enjoy any of that .. !!

[ND022202]

attached is a fresh graph of approvals in June per today's csv table.

[eventually]

ND02202

Dont you think the number of approvals has increased in the month of june than in the previous months ... If you have done similar graphs in the past ..


Thanks

-------------
eventually

[ND022202]

eventually,

unfortunately, not. June approval rate is very low.
As gettingclosernow posted in another thread, "pathetic drip of approvals". That what it is, though, I don't have enough data to prove it in full scale, because Kashmir started posting complete csv table only around May 10.

But, take a look at the attached graph for 02-045 series. I guess, it's quite similar to other November 01 series (which are now getting most of the approvals). You see major slowdown after promising March and April rates.

Thanks for watching.

[mango_pickle]

ND Greeat Job. Thanks for the graphs. And they are easier to read too..

About 240-250 approvals in month of June. Whats surprising is that they are approving July, Aug cases. I take these are approvals.

ND, do you have any stats/graphs for the number of cases touched but not approved in month of June ?

[ND022202]

Originally posted by mango_pickle
<...>
ND, do you have any stats/graphs for the number of cases touched but not approved in month of June ?

No, mango, I don't. Tracking approvals is easy , because it is the final stage. Touched cases are different, they can move back and forth, so, I'd need to analyze the whole kashmir's database, not only csv report. But i'll post something from csv, if i figure out how.
And don't worry about July, August, that's just a few cases, early birds (lucky bastards )

And, of course, thanks for watching.

[ND022202]

see attachment, nothing much...drip, drip, drip...

[ND022202]

see attachment. The graph is built out of 05/31-07/01 csv reports by kashmir scans. First month of complete coverage. Kashmir, you are THE MAN.

300+ cases done, which makes it about 12 per working day.
Give us at least 50, please.