WAC-02-046 stats

[Silly Man]

Ok yea VictorK is right, I found a few more cases, my script must have had a bug. Here are the updated stats.

Approved/Completed Count	179
Denied/Withdrawn Count		1
FP sent Count			11
Misc Count			6
Received Count			51
Resumed/FP recvd Count		192
RFE recvd Count			20
RFE sent Count			37
Transferred Count		19
Grand Count			516

Activity details
11/01/2002
Approved - 2
Card Ordered - 1
Rfe Recvd - 2
Rfe sent - 1

11/04/2002
Card Ordered - 1

11/05/2002
Approved - 1
Card Ordered - 1
RFE Recvd - 3
RFE Sent - 1

Revise of estimates,
Apprx. cases being approved everyday = 2.
Cases left pending - 192+20+37=249
Apprx more days ~ 249/2 ~ 125 ~ between End and Mid of March 2003.

I've deleted the wrong stats below, and updated the first header message to reflect the change.

[Silly Man]

Forgot 2 attach

[KamalTheLotus]

Silly Man:

Can you do it for WAC 02-056-XXXXX
series.

[nam29]

For all the efforts to research....but I have a question.
How do we know that these I-485 applications are employment based, family based, asylum based and whatever other category of I-485's exists?
I would appreciate if you could clarify.

[nell02]

As always, you are posting real valuable information on WAC tracking. Keep it up

Noted a colorful change in your signature Hope this brings you good luck this month! Waiting to see your approval.

[Silly Man]

nam29, there's no way to differentiate between those.

Nell, dude .. can't say I've ever been more eager in my life .. seriously man I hope Nov. brings some good luck.

Kamal, can you download off-patience's excel sheet and run it yourself .. it's real easy. If u need any help in doing that lemme know (thru pm's).

[deeps0]

Silly Man, good info!

Hope we all Nov people will get their approval in nov.

This Diwali willl bring approval for all of us.

I'm signing off for month going on vacation for 4 weeks.

All the Best to all 485 waiters.

Deeps0

[ViktorK]

My list for WAC-02-046 is longer
Could you compare it with yours.

Thank you for running script for others

[Silly Man]

Modified ... as the first message in this thread (found few more cases)

[Silly Man]

Another dissappointing day.

Approved/Completed Count 179
Denied/Withdrawn Count 1
FP sent Count 11
Misc Count 6
Received Count 51
Resumed/FP recvd Count 191
RFE recvd Count 21
RFE sent Count 37
Transferred Count 19
Grand Count 516

... 11/06 .. 1 RFE sent, 1 RFE Received.

Whats weird is the shockingly high number of RFE's INS is sending out.

[Jitup]

Sillman,

I would say we need to have a tool from which we can get an accurate count of I-485s processed daily. I really think they process more applications.


Thanks

[Silly Man]

Well, definition of process="Pick an application" or "decide on an application". We can write a tool that gives us an accurate view of decide, since they donot divulge information about "Pick".

About how many, this number is limited to only WAC_02_046, but off-patience and pil have had similar findings in other series. You can multiply the number with apprx 50, and yuo have around 50-100 cases being adjudicated everyday, versus around 500 cases being received everyday. it is tough to have a tool that will scan every single WAC in their database.

In other words, it takes them 5 working days, to process one working days worth of work. To clear november, they will take 5 months .. etc. etc. you get the picture.

[Silly Man]

Approved/Completed Count	181
Denied/Withdrawn Count		1
FP sent Count			11
Misc Count			6
Received Count			51
Resumed/FP recvd Count		189
RFE recvd Count			21
RFE sent Count			37
Transferred Count		19
Grand Count			516

11/07 Activity.
Approved - 2
RFE Sent - 1

[gnu01]

Silly Man,
How do we know if all of them are employment based?
The grand count is about 516 per day.

I can think of one way . Since Jit date is 10/19 we can try running the tool on some date before it,ex 09/15 to see what is the percentage rate that got approved.

If we get it anywhere close to 90% then we know our statistics are correct. I wish I can do this myself. But I work only on Unix and can't run Excel from work. And don't have Excell at home.

Can somebody please do this.

Thanks a lot

[Silly Man]

Gnu, chances are, all of these are not emp. based. But a fixed percent of these are, somewhere I read some stats released by INS, which meant that majority of GC's given are not Emp based. (8.8%) (I could find a link for stats for 1999 http://www.ins.gov/graphics/aboutins...cs/IMM99AR.pdf), but I read 2001 stats recently somewhere.

About running it before 9/15 or so .. well, in any range, INS isn't doing anything, so it won't give us much of a picutre. (People have run this scanner on those dates already).

Anyway, this scanner gives us a rough progress report, assuming x% are emp. based, then those x% of apprx 230 ish (RFE+Resumed+-Error%), are the ones that we are in. But when people get approved, they could be of any category either. So these stats give us a rough view of given the current speed, if you are a wac-02-046, you can expect to be approved by march/april 2003 .. latest.

[yih]

But, isn't it true that a lot of family-based immigrants go through CP rather than I-485? The ratio of emp-based cases may be higher than 8.8%.

[Silly Man]

Probably true. There is no accurate way of knowing. Do you think this everyday scanning is worth it?

[yih]

SM,
I'm scanning Dec cases (wac064 & 065) too. It is more like case study to me, compared to PCee's statistics which data collected from vonlunteers. Even if emp-based only represents 1%, I'll still keep doing so, cause this wait is so ...

However, there are a couple of more reasons for me to believe a good portion of the data we scanned is emp-based (correct me if I'm wrong):

1. Most of family-based I-485s are filed to local offices rather than CSC.
2. JIT report lacks the category of family-based I-485, which may mean they are statistically insignificant.
3. INS local offices may use different numbering system, instead of "wac-xx-xxx-xxxxx" since "WAC= Laguna Niguel, California or CSC"
4. Plus the one I mentioned above: a lot of family-based filers go through CP, not I-485.

Anyway, hope CSC speed up right away to save me time from sitting in front of my computer and guessing around....

[ca-to-wa]

In that case whats a resonable estimate for WAC-02-15x getting approved? My understanding was that approval will come by April 03

[Silly Man]

02-15x .. looking at current speed of approval, it is impossible to predict. Apr '3 sounds too soon though.

[Silly Man]

Approved/Completed Count	181
Denied/Withdrawn Count		1
FP sent Count			11
Misc Count			6
Received Count			51
Resumed/FP recvd Count		186
RFE recvd Count			25
RFE sent Count			36
Transferred Count		19
Grand Count			516

.. Activity ..
RFE recvd ... 4.

I'm expecting the holiday season to delay us, but then a lot of these cases aren't employment based. (But whats strange is that for cases where JIT > ND, approval rate is more than 90%, example WAC-01 cases, so this does give a fairly accurate view).

[Silly Man]

No activity .. ZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzz...........

[Sharma123]

I understand that it is difficult to predict that how many of These applications are employment based and others ( family etc)

As per my understanding family based will be a big catgory (most of applications) but looking at their priority dates none of family based application will get touched in this time frame. For example Category one is Apr99. This leaves us with other applcants that may be Asylum etc.

So all the activity we see ( finger prints, rfes, approvals etc ) most of them should go to emplymnet based. Any thoughts guys???

[Silly Man]

Sharma I agree, but see if you run this scanner on WAC-01 something, you will find more than 90% of the apps approved .. ain't that weird?

[PCee]

Sharma123,

I didn't get your point! I thought a family based AOS is allowed to be filed only if dates are current! If dates are current then they do touch and process the cases in the order they receive it.

-PCee

[Silly Man]

yea PCee is right, that explains 90% of the cases being approved.

But we still have different JIT's for different kinds of cases, and we have no way of predicting what case # is what case type. So there.

[cao]

Family based 485 cases are filed to INS local offices, are
they?

[Silly Man]

What diff does it make if they are filed in local offices?

[cao]

Only Nabraska Center deal with
Asylum base. I believe all I-485 cases in CSC are
E-base.

[cao]

Local Offices have a different numbering system.