2012 Visa bulletin predictions

**Concerned_** · 28th July 2011, 05:13 PM

Has anyone heard or thought about how visa bulletin numbers will move this year? I was using last three years numbers to estimate when my DV2012 visa number becomes current but now I am not sure how much confidence I can put on those. Two reasons why.
First, this is the first year when KCC did not mail any hard copies of notification letters so I wonder if this results in higher or lower number of applicants this year. I am talking about the ones who decide to pursue the visa by submitting DS-122, 230 forms or AOS.
Second, two month delay in winning notifications because of computer glitch in round one. This is especially important for those with lower rank numbers because they have to have their documents ready in October-November and it is literally in two months time.
Any opinions?

**xrj** · 28th July 2011, 05:42 PM

hello Concerned,
i am wondering if anyone have any solid explanation about why Asia have very hight CN this year. i have seen some have as high as AS00071XXX while the highest CN for Asia last year in this forum was not more than 5XXXX. or maybe 45000

**rdada** · 28th July 2011, 05:45 PM

The 2012 visa bulletin for october will be published in August 15th.
xrj, can you check you Entry Status right now, let us know if you receive the notification letter today, none of us seem to get it today.

**Concerned_** · 28th July 2011, 05:58 PM

Originally Posted by xrj

hello Concerned,
i am wondering if anyone have any solid explanation about why Asia have very hight CN this year. i have seen some have as high as AS00071XXX while the highest CN for Asia last year in this forum was not more than 5XXXX. or maybe 45000

This is odd. From what I have learnt (and I am new to DV process) this number look like AF number. This makes me suspect if some of the middle numbers are skipped, and if they are this will make visa bulletin numbers even more unpredictable. I am curious to see what the highest AF and EU number was this year so far.

**Concerned_** · 28th July 2011, 06:03 PM

Originally Posted by rdada

The 2012 visa bulletin for october will be published in August 15th.
xrj, can you check you Entry Status right now, let us know if you receive the notification letter today, none of us seem to get it today.

As analysis of past ten years of DV visa bulletin shows the initial October number is not very reliable to predict how visas will move throughout the year. However, during the past three years this number could have been used for this purpose, numbers were adding around 2500 visas/month. But, because of the reasons i stated in my first post I am wondering if this number still can be used for reliable prediction this year.

**rdada** · 28th July 2011, 06:05 PM

I hope all the numbers will be current soon, as the letters aren't sent.
Concerned_ as i asked xrj, can you check you Entry Status right now, let us know if you receive the notification letter today, none of us seem to get it today. Let us know if you will get a Notification Letter today.

**Concerned_** · 28th July 2011, 06:24 PM

I would, but i do not have my E-DV confirmation number on me right now. But it seems like DOS DV visa website had some issues today, as some people already called KCC before they closed today.

**rdada** · 28th July 2011, 06:26 PM

Thanks for the reply. I checked the website a moment ago, its back and its not doing that anymore.

**xrj** · 28th July 2011, 07:54 PM

hello rdada, this is really weired!!! i went to check my status and it says "HAS NOT BEEN SELECTED" i tried it 2 times but i got the same. i think the wetside is down or something. i hope it could be anything but not another selection glitch.

.

Originally Posted by rdada

The 2012 visa bulletin for october will be published in August 15th.
xrj, can you check you Entry Status right now, let us know if you receive the notification letter today, none of us seem to get it today.

**Concerned_** · 28th July 2011, 08:26 PM

Gentlemen, not to be rude, but let's stick to the main idea of this thread which is to see if anyone heard how the numbers will move this year. There is a lot of uncertainty ahead of all of us.

**deepfrrezed** · 28th July 2011, 08:48 PM

I get the same this.

**Sympli Dusty** · 29th July 2011, 12:15 PM

What was the lowest number for EU this year? I don't remember if I saw anything less than 20000.

**bonit** · 29th July 2011, 01:03 PM

i am new to this forum too but my cn is 2012AF00075XXX which i think is very high

**Sympli Dusty** · 29th July 2011, 02:20 PM

this year the highest number for AF i've seen was 88XXX

**dis66** · 29th July 2011, 06:06 PM

...

**propinion** · 29th July 2011, 07:15 PM

can someone please explain case numbers to me? i don't quite understand!

**dv2012dv** · 29th July 2011, 07:24 PM

Originally Posted by dis66

...If this is true, then a EU case number of 20,000 might actually be 17,000 or a AF case of 40,000 might be 35,000 or so...

How did you determine that the offset for EU might be 3000. I know it is a speculation, but I mean why/how the 3000? why not 4000, or 5000 etc?

**dis66** · 29th July 2011, 09:24 PM

....

**Luckguy** · 29th July 2011, 11:29 PM

Originally Posted by xrj

hello Concerned,
i am wondering if anyone have any solid explanation about why Asia have very hight CN this year. i have seen some have as high as AS00071XXX while the highest CN for Asia last year in this forum was not more than 5XXXX. or maybe 45000

Are you sure that 71K is true??? Somebody can jump out and say " my CN is AS80K!!

**xrj** · 30th July 2011, 03:39 AM

hi, i am wondering why it is weired to see 88000 for Asia or Europ??? since there are 90,000 to 100,000 winners, its normal to see even 90,000 in any region. please tell me what im missing!!! this forum does not represent a random selection of the winners, does it? anyways, i hope the next VB that is coming after a week will clearafy this for everyone. I hop and pray they didn't use the 90,000 or the 22,000 so I could be current sooner.

**xrj** · 30th July 2011, 07:15 PM

yes, i am sure i have seen in this forum a member with that number from Asia and i dont see any reason for him/her to not write the truth.

Originally Posted by Luckguy

Are you sure that 71K is true??? Somebody can jump out and say " my CN is AS80K!!

**davidcc** · 30th July 2011, 08:40 PM

EU
LOW 2xxx
HIGH 33xxx
(What I have seen)

**Sympli Dusty** · 30th July 2011, 08:49 PM

Originally Posted by davidcc

EU
LOW 2xxx
HIGH 33xxx
(What I have seen)

So EU numbers look consistent with previous years. Why AS numbers are so high this year? May be they really are skipping some of the numbers from round 1 winners on May 1st, and many of those winners were from Asia? If this is a truth, then visa bulletin for AS should start from high numbers this year.

**radovic** · 1st August 2011, 09:40 AM

Originally Posted by Sympli Dusty

What was the lowest number for EU this year? I don't remember if I saw anything less than 20000.

There are many. from 2xxx to 33xxx as I know.

**gkds52** · 1st August 2011, 01:57 PM

Hello
I am a winner of DV 2012 and my case number is EU301xx. I'm in the US on J-1 and I'm doing AOS. I have not seen any other CN higher than mine in these online forums. Although this is kinda disappointing for me, according to previous visa bulletins, EU30xxx was available around June-July, and I think this still gives me enough time for my AOS.

DV2012
EU301xx

**Concerned_** · 1st August 2011, 07:48 PM

Well... It looks like DV visa number range is consistent with previous years, with the exception of AS region, where higher than usual case numbers are present. I wonder if this has anything to do with higher number of applicants this year which is almost 15MM vs. 12MM last year. As a matter of fact this DV lottery has seen the highest number of applicants since 2007. I am waiting to see October visa bulletin to compare it to last year.

**radovic** · 2nd August 2011, 02:58 AM

Yes probably will be out in August. I can't wait too

**dis66** · 2nd August 2011, 08:11 AM

Hi. Where is this EU person with 33xxx? I cannot find him in this thread.

**propinion** · 2nd August 2011, 08:29 AM

I have searched through the forum about case numbers as someone said there would be info, but I still don't quite get it! ...what happens when a country becomes current - does that mean your number does not get processed or is that when it is open ended and any number can be processed? Also how long do you have to wait to get your first letter after returning all your paperwork?
thanks

**gamanp** · 2nd August 2011, 09:46 AM

Can you mail AOS package on October 1st although your number on Bulettin is listed for November 2011? My Case Number is AS....15XXX and I am trying to do an AOS here in US. When do I expect this number to be current? Also can I switch to CP anytime if I decide to do so and how do I know until when it may still be safe to change from AOS to CP in the process.

Your answer is appriciated.