2012 Visa bulletin predictions

**Concerned_** · 28th July 2011, 05:13 PM

Has anyone heard or thought about how visa bulletin numbers will move this year? I was using last three years numbers to estimate when my DV2012 visa number becomes current but now I am not sure how much confidence I can put on those. Two reasons why.
First, this is the first year when KCC did not mail any hard copies of notification letters so I wonder if this results in higher or lower number of applicants this year. I am talking about the ones who decide to pursue the visa by submitting DS-122, 230 forms or AOS.
Second, two month delay in winning notifications because of computer glitch in round one. This is especially important for those with lower rank numbers because they have to have their documents ready in October-November and it is literally in two months time.
Any opinions?

**xrj** · 28th July 2011, 05:42 PM

hello Concerned,
i am wondering if anyone have any solid explanation about why Asia have very hight CN this year. i have seen some have as high as AS00071XXX while the highest CN for Asia last year in this forum was not more than 5XXXX. or maybe 45000

**Concerned_** · 28th July 2011, 05:58 PM

Originally Posted by xrj

hello Concerned,
i am wondering if anyone have any solid explanation about why Asia have very hight CN this year. i have seen some have as high as AS00071XXX while the highest CN for Asia last year in this forum was not more than 5XXXX. or maybe 45000

This is odd. From what I have learnt (and I am new to DV process) this number look like AF number. This makes me suspect if some of the middle numbers are skipped, and if they are this will make visa bulletin numbers even more unpredictable. I am curious to see what the highest AF and EU number was this year so far.

**Luckguy** · 29th July 2011, 11:29 PM

Originally Posted by xrj

hello Concerned,
i am wondering if anyone have any solid explanation about why Asia have very hight CN this year. i have seen some have as high as AS00071XXX while the highest CN for Asia last year in this forum was not more than 5XXXX. or maybe 45000

Are you sure that 71K is true??? Somebody can jump out and say " my CN is AS80K!!

**xrj** · 30th July 2011, 07:15 PM

yes, i am sure i have seen in this forum a member with that number from Asia and i dont see any reason for him/her to not write the truth.

Originally Posted by Luckguy

Are you sure that 71K is true??? Somebody can jump out and say " my CN is AS80K!!

**davidcc** · 30th July 2011, 08:40 PM

EU
LOW 2xxx
HIGH 33xxx
(What I have seen)

**Sympli Dusty** · 30th July 2011, 08:49 PM

Originally Posted by davidcc

EU
LOW 2xxx
HIGH 33xxx
(What I have seen)

So EU numbers look consistent with previous years. Why AS numbers are so high this year? May be they really are skipping some of the numbers from round 1 winners on May 1st, and many of those winners were from Asia? If this is a truth, then visa bulletin for AS should start from high numbers this year.

**Speedstar** · 6th March 2012, 09:27 PM

Originally Posted by xrj

yes, i am sure i have seen in this forum a member with that number from Asia and i dont see any reason for him/her to not write the truth.

My CN is AS60XXX and I know people with 76K from Asia. Number are very high this time and I have compared this years bulletins with previous ones, the visa numbers for this year have moved more quickly than previous ones. so I am sure all will be current till sepetember and I myself do not need to worry about finishing of visas before my number gets current.

**rdada** · 28th July 2011, 05:45 PM

The 2012 visa bulletin for october will be published in August 15th.
xrj, can you check you Entry Status right now, let us know if you receive the notification letter today, none of us seem to get it today.

**Concerned_** · 28th July 2011, 06:03 PM

Originally Posted by rdada

The 2012 visa bulletin for october will be published in August 15th.
xrj, can you check you Entry Status right now, let us know if you receive the notification letter today, none of us seem to get it today.

As analysis of past ten years of DV visa bulletin shows the initial October number is not very reliable to predict how visas will move throughout the year. However, during the past three years this number could have been used for this purpose, numbers were adding around 2500 visas/month. But, because of the reasons i stated in my first post I am wondering if this number still can be used for reliable prediction this year.

**xrj** · 28th July 2011, 07:54 PM

hello rdada, this is really weired!!! i went to check my status and it says "HAS NOT BEEN SELECTED" i tried it 2 times but i got the same. i think the wetside is down or something. i hope it could be anything but not another selection glitch.

.

Originally Posted by rdada

The 2012 visa bulletin for october will be published in August 15th.
xrj, can you check you Entry Status right now, let us know if you receive the notification letter today, none of us seem to get it today.

**Concerned_** · 28th July 2011, 08:26 PM

Gentlemen, not to be rude, but let's stick to the main idea of this thread which is to see if anyone heard how the numbers will move this year. There is a lot of uncertainty ahead of all of us.

**deepfrrezed** · 28th July 2011, 08:48 PM

I get the same this.

**rdada** · 28th July 2011, 06:05 PM

I hope all the numbers will be current soon, as the letters aren't sent.
Concerned_ as i asked xrj, can you check you Entry Status right now, let us know if you receive the notification letter today, none of us seem to get it today. Let us know if you will get a Notification Letter today.

**Concerned_** · 28th July 2011, 06:24 PM

I would, but i do not have my E-DV confirmation number on me right now. But it seems like DOS DV visa website had some issues today, as some people already called KCC before they closed today.

**rdada** · 28th July 2011, 06:26 PM

Thanks for the reply. I checked the website a moment ago, its back and its not doing that anymore.

**Sympli Dusty** · 29th July 2011, 12:15 PM

What was the lowest number for EU this year? I don't remember if I saw anything less than 20000.

**radovic** · 1st August 2011, 09:40 AM

Originally Posted by Sympli Dusty

What was the lowest number for EU this year? I don't remember if I saw anything less than 20000.

There are many. from 2xxx to 33xxx as I know.

**gkds52** · 1st August 2011, 01:57 PM

Hello
I am a winner of DV 2012 and my case number is EU301xx. I'm in the US on J-1 and I'm doing AOS. I have not seen any other CN higher than mine in these online forums. Although this is kinda disappointing for me, according to previous visa bulletins, EU30xxx was available around June-July, and I think this still gives me enough time for my AOS.

DV2012
EU301xx

**Concerned_** · 1st August 2011, 07:48 PM

Well... It looks like DV visa number range is consistent with previous years, with the exception of AS region, where higher than usual case numbers are present. I wonder if this has anything to do with higher number of applicants this year which is almost 15MM vs. 12MM last year. As a matter of fact this DV lottery has seen the highest number of applicants since 2007. I am waiting to see October visa bulletin to compare it to last year.

**radovic** · 2nd August 2011, 02:58 AM

Yes probably will be out in August. I can't wait too

**Sunkanmi** · 10th September 2011, 08:18 AM

Originally Posted by Concerned_

Well... It looks like DV visa number range is consistent with previous years, with the exception of AS region, where higher than usual case numbers are present. I wonder if this has anything to do with higher number of applicants this year which is almost 15MM vs. 12MM last year. As a matter of fact this DV lottery has seen the highest number of applicants since 2007. I am waiting to see October visa bulletin to compare it to last year.

Visa bulletin for october , 2011 has been released. Below are the CN range that will be current for each region in November;
Africa - 13000
Asia. - 10000
Europe - 11000
Pls visit the visit the visa bulletin website for more information.

**dis66** · 2nd August 2011, 08:11 AM

Hi. Where is this EU person with 33xxx? I cannot find him in this thread.

**Sympli Dusty** · 2nd August 2011, 08:26 PM

Originally Posted by dis66

Hi. Where is this EU person with 33xxx? I cannot find him in this thread.

I was reading other DV lottery forums and there are lots of people with EU numbers above 30XXXX. IS it because there are more applicants this year? If, so does it mean that people with high case numbers have less chances than last year?

**dis66** · 2nd August 2011, 11:38 PM

....

**japaneschinlove** · 9th September 2011, 02:30 PM

Originally Posted by Sympli Dusty

I was reading other DV lottery forums and there are lots of people with EU numbers above 30XXXX. IS it because there are more applicants this year? If, so does it mean that people with high case numbers have less chances than last year?

The number of applicants should have nothing to do with what the chances are of a winner getting a visa. This year they selected an almost identical number of winners from EU as last year so as long as the quota is the same as last year for EU then the chances should be equal. but then the chances also depend on outside factors that affect the amount of winners who decide to pursue a visa and who are approved for a visa ie. economy, politics etc etc....

As to next bulletin, it should be out Monday. it hasn't been posted later than the 11th of the month in the past couple years.

**radovic** · 4th August 2011, 05:09 AM

Originally Posted by dis66

Hi. Where is this EU person with 33xxx? I cannot find him in this thread.

He is not on this forum. Ex-Yugoslavia forum. 33xxx is top what I know.

**Concerned_** · 9th August 2011, 10:38 PM

October bulletin is out and numbers look similar to last three years. Let's see how they will move. I think by December we should have a clear picture for the rest of the year.