VSC 2003 by sampling scanning

[nemessis]

Since sbctsublc decided to stop his weekly reports I will post my weekly scanning for EAC03 cases. The data I have so far is obtained by sampling every fifth day for EAC03100 – EAC03215 (my date), EAC03001 and EAC03050. Even if this data is not as accurate as sbctsublc's data because of the sampling error, it can give you a feeling of what’s going on at USCIS. I used the same method for I140 and I was able to predict pretty well what was happening. I will also try to post weekly statistics about what they’ve done from a week to another. Unfortunately I don’t have Adobe Acrobat at work to convert to pdf so Unix/Linux users may not see the data but if somebody can convert it to be accessible to everyone is welcome to do it. Also if there are volunteers who can help me to do the initial scanning for other dates that will improve the quality of data/prediction we have here. I hope also sbctsublc will continue with his data so we can have a better idea of what’s going on at USCIS, especially in this period when they might implement some new things ...

I plotted only 2 things now: “Completed” means Approved + Transfered + Denied/Withdrawn. I also plotted the FP since that might be of interest for some of us. As we can see from the plot the frontwave of FP is somewhere at the end of June 2003.

[Jalma]

Excellent job. Keep it up. I am not a computer guy, otherwise would have certainly helped you out with this.

[nemessis]

I am not computer guy either. In fact I am medical doctor, and I know that there are a lot of computer guys here that can help ...

I'll try later to add other statistics from the records I have ...

Originally posted by Jalma
Excellent job. Keep it up. I am not a computer guy, otherwise would have certainly helped you out with this.

[nemessis]

Since VSC may update tomorrow the processing dates I am posting here what they reported so far in time. Both charts show the delays between the report date and the processing date. Unfortunately the I485 seems to continously increase, but we can see the progress for I140 EB2,3,4, and a little bit for the rest.

[mysunny007]

nemesis !

YOu are too good . It is too much alarming to realize that graph for 485 is so much positve sloped . If this same trend continues - after one year , the dates will be 1000+ . It is pathetic .

You should send it to Sheela Murthy and Rajeev . They may use it in some AILA conferences . Not that tehy know this - it gives better feel of the data . Keep up the good work

-Sunny

[vi00]

Also send it to the Aguirre, Director BCIS, who so blatantly on uscis.gov, claims( memo 1 week old) that they have made improvements in processing time!!.

If you do decide to send it to that mislead guy, please use caution. Fools don't take advise well.

[nemessis]

It looks like EB2 maintains the same tendency of going down, EB3,4 same, but with a smaller slope, anyways progress in both.

I think what we are going to see at VSC is a continue of this big push to bring the backlogs for I140 close to normal and after that, I hope, they will use all the resources for the I485 backlogs.

[nemessis]

Only few “FP sent” changed to “Resumed/FP received” and few “Transferred” ... no big new “FP sent” also ... regarding the data before Feb 2002, is only 2 dates and many receipts no I didn’t scan in the last month, only yesterday I brought them up-to-date so the modifications for these 2 dates reflects the last month USCIS activity, most of them transfers though. I’ll try to scan them weekly from now, but we’ll need more points so sbctsublc, we’ll be grateful to you if you’ll share some of the data you have ( I485 receipt nos) for that period to have a better idea of what’s going on.

[nemessis]

Download the attached file and change the .zip extension to .exe. It's a self-extract archive.

[Cpage]

PDF Format

[nemessis]

I obtained yesterday from sbctsublc his data, part of it I used it to complete my database of every fifth day for 2003. There are already in my database ~13700 cases and I think this is close to my maximum scan capacity ... If somebody wants to scan other dates I can send him/her the list with the receipt no. The data I updated in the table from sbctsublc is from EAC03001 to EAC03100. Since the last time he scanned was a month ago, that time interval is not updated. At the next scan I'll try to bring up-to-date everything. Now the picture about what's going on looks much better.

Regards ...

[PhDchemist]

I obtained yesterday from sbctsublc his data, part of it I used it to complete my database of every fifth day for 2003. There are already in my database ~13700 cases and I think this is close to my maximum scan capacity ... If somebody wants to scan other dates I can send him/her the list with the receipt no. The data I updated in the table from sbctsublc is from EAC03001 to EAC03100. Since the last time he scanned was a month ago, that time interval is not updated. At the next scan I'll try to bring up-to-date everything. Now the picture about what's going on looks much better.

Regards ...

Hi nemessis,

do you know if anybody is scanning CSC? If not can you teach me how to scan?

PhDChemist

[nemessis]

Download the attachment, Ctrl+z will open a macro, choose a date (EAC03xx, I don't know the format for CSC), and a range of numbers: 5001-51000 (they usually block you r IP after 1000 scans).

GL

Hi nemessis,

do you know if anybody is scanning CSC? If not can you teach me how to scan?

PhDChemist

[tmp]

Hello,

I guess many people are scanning USCIS online status with script and I wonder what is the point of this?

When I try to check my own status by on-line, I often encounter that site prohibits to be accessed by anybody since organization or individual trys to scan too many cases.

You guys activity prevents individual from checking his/her chance & right. Scanning cases doesn't accerelate your process TAT. I appreciate if you could stop doing this...

Thanks,
Tmp

[nemessis]

The problem you have of being unable to access the USCIS site is because maybe you try to access it from work where others might do the same. The USCIS web site usually blocks you after 1000 recept no. but if you wait a few days you'll have access again. It's not our fault ...

Regarding your question of why we scan this data: is just to have an idea of what's going on, to see if we can make a prediction (even without an extremely precise estimation) of when we can expect to have the GC approved ... to know what we can expect for our plans in the future or to make plans for the next years/months; the same reason maybe for which you're registered here also ... no offense.

On the other hand, I asked several times for volunteers to help with the scanning ... if we organize we'll be more efficient so we won't scan the same receipt no like some people do and we can have a common posting, the way sbctsublc did. In this way we'll have a better info.

Hello,

I guess many people are scanning USCIS online status with script and I wonder what is the point of this?

When I try to check my own status by on-line, I often encounter that site prohibits to be accessed by anybody since organization or individual trys to scan too many cases.

You guys activity prevents individual from checking his/her chance & right. Scanning cases doesn't accerelate your process TAT. I appreciate if you could stop doing this...

Thanks,
Tmp

[nemessis]

The update has 2 worksheets:
- first shows the snapshot of the sampling dates like the previous ones
- in the second I plotted the differences from the previous week, to get a feeling of what USCIS was doing last week. The EAC03 <100 were from sbctsublsc and the rec no weren’t scanned in the last month so the relatively big movement seen there is because is from the last month. Other than that only a few FP sent converted in FP received and few transfers. Many of the approvals from EAC<100 were between May 10 and May13. If you wonder why some transfers for some dates have negative numbers: after the transfer was received by local USCIS office some of them are converted back as Received, so I took them out of the Q because they are no longer a problem of VSC center.

[sakti]

If you guys tell me how to do scanning ...I am ready to help you and me...
Thanks
Sakti

[nemessis]

I think I got too excited too early, I cannot say that this week it was a rain of approvals ... but significant movement anyways. I combined the weekly scanning by sampling with the time reports from VSC in a single table so ppl don’t need to download twice.

First spreadsheet is the snapshot of the sampling dates with the status for FP – some movement in Nov 2002 – mid Feb 2003, sporadic events after that. 28 approvals, 57 transfers, 40 RFE sent, business as usual, maybe the approvals are a slightly higher. The only relatively significant no of approvals – end of May 2003 and mid July 2003. They might be the ones with I140 not adjud yet and with FP done (there were few FP sent in the past for July, see the FP chart for more details, where there is that small peak – although all these approvals from July were RFE recvd before)

In the FP data – no significant development. On the other hand several “Received” changed to “FP recvd” that shows that the online system might be not updated in real time like they used to do before May 1st (or before they changed the WEB site).

The next 2 spreadsheets ... I140 times go down, I 485 continues to go up with the same speed (now it’s beyond 800 days).

I was trying to see if there is any significant pattern or difference in patterns in I485 approvals: in the last spreadsheet (Pattern recogn) I listed the approval times for each date sampled. In the bottom are the no of days between the filling and approvals. Does anybody see a pattern/change in pattern after May 1st? Maybe there are statisticians among us that can help interpret this ....

[nemessis]

Check ETA-GC post here:

http://www.immigrationportal.com/sho...0&page=5&pp=15

It has all the details you need. But please let us know what you want to scan to not scan the same dates like us, send me a pm and we'll make a plan.

If you guys tell me how to do scanning ...I am ready to help you and me...
Thanks
Sakti

[nemessis]

Finally finished the scan ... unfortunately no big news as you can see ...

[nemessis]

[nemessis]

Big surprise this week ... an increased numbers of ... transfers ... see the first plot with completed, mostly transfers, but clearly a very high activity at VSC. If somebody doesn't understand what all this numbers mean please send me a pm and I'll explain.

Cheers,
nemessis

[evgeny]

Finally 485 moved from 15-Feb-2002 to 17-Apr-2002.

[ETA-GC]

Big surprise this week ... an increased numbers of ... transfers ... see the first plot with completed, mostly transfers, but clearly a very high activity at VSC. If somebody doesn't understand what all this numbers mean please send me a pm and I'll explain.

Cheers,
nemessis

Hey nemessis.

Thanks once again for putting this together -- I've been pouring over the numbers...

Just checking but the first sheet only includes I-485 cases, right?

It's a little discouraging to see so many cases being transferred. I'm assuming that the local centers are as backed up as the VSC is and that it could take 1-2 years or longer for these cases to be processed (it might be interesting to learn what kind of cases are being transferred). Do we even have forums tracking local handling of 485 cases?

Unfortunately, if you remove the transferred cases from the "Completed" list (since transferred cases could have a long way to go) then the numbers go down a lot, although it does seem like cases in 10/02 are starting to get attention, e.g.:

10/01/02: 13.27%
10/05/02: 30.99%
10/10/02: 6.74%
10/18/02: 7.83%
02/25/03: 2.56%
06/09/03: 1.43%
07/22/03: 0.00%

(do you think it might be useful to have separate "Completed" and "Completed / Transferred" data / graphs?)

Thanks again!

ETA

[PhillyKP]

I'm going to start scanning RD 07/10/2003 (EAC03207) (that's my date )

Let me know if you need additional days and I'll give you my data in a couple weeks when I have most or all of it scanned (at 250/day, it'll take a while).

Thx.

K

[nemessis]

Hi guys,

The table has only I485 data, the only 140 data is in the 3rd worksheet with the processing time reports.

I have a proposal for you (plus the other active members of this forum and I140 forum): let's add more dates, by continuing to scan every fifth day for the rest of the 2003 and 2004, so we'll need volunteers for: EAC03-220, 225, 230, 235, 240, 245, 250, 255, 260 (I think 26x is the last day of FY 2003) and EAC04-001, 005, 010, 015, ..., 205 should be the last. We'll need as many volunteers as possible for that to do the initial scanning and the update after that so we'll have a much larger database and a better understanding of what's going on. What do you think? In the case you want to do it post here the dates you want to scan so we won't have duplicates.

Thanks,
nemessis

[ETA-GC]

Hi guys,

The table has only I485 data, the only 140 data is in the 3rd worksheet with the processing time reports.

I have a proposal for you (plus the other active members of this forum and I140 forum): let's add more dates, by continuing to scan every fifth day for the rest of the 2003 and 2004, so we'll need volunteers for: EAC03-220, 225, 230, 235, 240, 245, 250, 255, 260 (I think 26x is the last day of FY 2003) and EAC04-001, 005, 010, 015, ..., 205 should be the last. We'll need as many volunteers as possible for that to do the initial scanning and the update after that so we'll have a much larger database and a better understanding of what's going on. What do you think? In the case you want to do it post here the dates you want to scan so we won't have duplicates.

Thanks,
nemessis

I'm in.

I can do EAC04-015 (my own ND is 10/23/04 = EAC04-016XXXXX). I can do more if there aren't too many (> 250) cases on those days. Am I right that there appear to be *way* more I-485 cases per given day than I-140 cases? e.g. prior to my I-140 being approved I had scanned for I-140 cases on 10/01/03 and only came up with about 50 or so cases -- there appear to be at least 250 I-485 cases for each of the days that you've been tracking?

Also, just to be sure, I'm assuming we don't know any of the case #'s for the missing days yet, right? So the first task is to find these by scanning from about EAC04-01650000 through EAC04-01655000 or so?

And, apart from using multiple machines with different IPs, there's no way to get around the limit of ~250 scans / day right?

ETA

[nemessis]

The only way I know other than changing the IP in IE is using dial-up from home and the IP changes every time you connect.

There are more I485 that I140 because for a family for example there is 1 I140 for the main applicant but one I485 for each family member. The highest number of 485's I saw was less that 600 (from a total of ~5000 receipt numbers per day).

The only info I have is from the days I post, if somebody else has already scanned other dates is welcome to post/participate in updates, to aviod redundant work.

Thanks a lot ETA-GC for help.
nemessis

I'm in.

I can do EAC04-015 (my own ND is 10/23/04 = EAC04-016XXXXX). I can do more if there aren't too many (> 250) cases on those days. Am I right that there appear to be *way* more I-485 cases per given day than I-140 cases? e.g. prior to my I-140 being approved I had scanned for I-140 cases on 10/01/03 and only came up with about 50 or so cases -- there appear to be at least 250 I-485 cases for each of the days that you've been tracking?

Also, just to be sure, I'm assuming we don't know any of the case #'s for the missing days yet, right? So the first task is to find these by scanning from about EAC04-01650000 through EAC04-01655000 or so?

And, apart from using multiple machines with different IPs, there's no way to get around the limit of ~250 scans / day right?

ETA

[ETA-GC]

The only info I have is from the days I post, if somebody else has already scanned other dates is welcome to post/participate in updates, to aviod redundant work.

Do you think that looking for cases in EAC04-01650000 through EAC04-01655000 (or EACYY-DDD50000 through EACYY-DDD55000 for other Years / Days) will catch them all or should the range be opened up a bit?

I remember the dialup trick now -- that's what I used earlier . I still have my dialup connection for a while but I'm using DSL now and I'm not sure that this will reassign my number if I reconnect each time...

Also, I hope others volunteer (this will help all of us to get a better idea of what might happen to our own cases) but if not, I'll probably take cases starting from the end of the current set so we have contiguous samples.

Once I've got the list of I-485 #'s (this is the hard part) I should be able to take care of scanning many of the days for updates. If I can do the IP trick with DSL this won't take long, otherwise I can do this over several days between my home and work systems (unfortunately, the USCIS tends to block our entire range of IP's here at work once the limit is exceeded so I can't use multiple PCs here to do the scans...

ETA

[nemessis]

Do you think that looking for cases in EAC04-01650000 through EAC04-01655000 (or EACYY-DDD50000 through EACYY-DDD55000 for other Years / Days) will catch them all or should the range be opened up a bit?

I haven't seen rec # greater than 5600 and even so there will be only a few so if we'll miss them it won't give us a big error.