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April 2015 Visa Bulletin Released

n.n. said:
Is it official? Does EU have more than 20k visas this year?
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USCIS/DoS does not publish the official quotas. However, the method for calculating the quota is published, so DV4Roger used that method, did some research work and calculated the quotas.
 
Britsimon said:
Yup, I was about to say that...

Although there might be a way if I can spare the time.

We have the entry data for 2014 and 2o15 now. So from that we should be able to reconstruct the draw to figure out how many cases each country had and apply the cut offs to see how many cases went current per country. We could then get a rough response rate per country or a pretty precise case to issued rate, since we have the official issued numbers too.

We can also confirm that with accurate derivative rates and apply that to selectees, because we cannot be sure of the fraud holes, versus non responses, so we might have to apply 2015 regional fraud rates.

I created a useable spreadsheet for the entries across all countries for 2013 to 2015 if you want that...
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Would you please mind constructing one for the OC region. Ta
 
Maisy said:
Would you please mind constructing one for the OC region. Ta
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OC has no limited countries (meaning there is no reason response rate would vary through the range) and is too small a range to be statistically interesting - but here ya go...

MarchresponsethroughrangeOC.jpg
 
Britsimon said:
OC has no limited countries (meaning there is no reason response rate would vary through the range) and is too small a range to be statistically interesting - but here ya go...

View attachment 431
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Thanks Britsmon for making this available for reference. the "NON" column- does this mean seletcives who choose not to respond to the offer or are they not selected on the 5th of may.

What is the reason cases 101-200 and 501-600 have a lower response percentage?
 
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Maisy said:
Thanks Britsmon for making this available for reference. the "NON" column- does this mean seletcives who choose not to respond to the offer or are they not selected on the 5th of may.

What is the reason cases 101-200 and 501-600 have a lower response percentage?
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The NON column is people that have not responded YET, or they have responded but their forms are still being processed.

Your second question is exactly why I didn't publish the OC chart in the first place. The numbers are not a large enough sample for those two dips to mean anything at all - hence my earlier comment about not being " statistically interesting" - although I said range and I should have said sample size.
 
Britsimon said:
The NON column is people that have not responded YET, or they have responded but their forms are still being processed.

Your second question is exactly why I didn't publish the OC chart in the first place. The numbers are not a large enough sample for those two dips to mean anything at all - hence my earlier comment about not being " statistically interesting" - although I said range and I should have said sample size.
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Well thought out explanation. Hmmm interesting!!! Don't you think that introducing EDV online only this year would have restricted many applicants in remote areas in the Pacific, Africa and Asia from applying successfully- would they have had access to technology- previously you could send hard copies. Meeting the photo specification would have been a challenge to some.
 
Maisy said:
Well thought out explanation. Hmmm interesting!!! Don't you think that introducing EDV online only this year would have restricted may applicants in remote areas in the Pacific, Africa and Asia from applying successfully- would they have had access to technology- previously you could send hard copies. Meeting the photo specification would have been a challenge to some.
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The entry has been online only for years - so if someone has figured out how to enter the lottery, they should have been able to complete the DS260...
 
Britsimon said:
The entry has been online only for years - so if someone has figured out how to enter the lottery, they should have been able to complete the DS260...
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Indeed. I think we did our first entry in 2008, and it was already online then (and I'm sure that wasn't the first year it was online).
 
Catracha74 said:
Would it be possible to have a response rate analysis for SA? Please? Thanks.
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As I explained nto Maisy above - it is somewhat pointless. There is nothing to be learned from breaking the SA region into ranges because the sample size is too small and there are no limited countries that would impact the response rate in one range or another. The overall response rate is something anyone can get in 5 seconds from the CEAC files I publish.
 
EURO2014 said:
Hi Edouard, I love you using the word "sempiternal": "1400-50; late Middle English < Late Latin sempiternālis, equivalent to Latin sempitern(us) everlasting semp(er) always + -i- -i- + -ternus suffix of temporal adjectives; see eterne) + -ālis -al1 ", truly you are a great writer, I am not joking!

Also, I do hate to quote myself, as it equates to bad style, yet here is what I think, as mentioned above:"... Until the last Visa Bulletin for May came out for Europe, I certainly would have said you can be pretty confident with a EU40.2xx number, given that, until April, Europe was noticeably ahead, 3.000+ and last year had ended with 40.150. This would certainly make sense, due to changes to Nigeria eligibility etc. Yet, as we all know, progress in May has slowed down and we are now more or less even with last year. This is not the first time this has happened, if you compare with previous years, yet next month's Bulletin will be rather important, in the sense that it hopefully will confirm positive progression for Europe. I am afraid it will be a nail biter until September for EU winners with high lottery numbers, above EU39.500 or so."
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sorry to disturb sir,but what do you think about AF in thesame direction?
 
stiffi said:
sorry to disturb sir,but what do you think about AF in thesame direction?
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No problem, you are very welcome, not disturbing in any way. Unfortunately, I am personally not following the AF region closely enough and therefore would like to refer your question to the specialists on this board in this respect. Best of luck to you and yours! EURO2014
 
EURO2014 said:
No problem, you are very welcome, not disturbing in any way. Unfortunately, I am personally not following the AF region closely enough and therefore would like to refer your question to the specialists on this board in this respect. Best of luck to you and yours! EURO2014
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thanks,I hope @EURO2014 can help me out....
 
Britsimon said:
Stiffi, that was Eoro2014...

What is your concern - your number is AF40XXX - right - there is absolutely NO DOUBT that you will be current, probably for a July interview. So - what is your question?
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oops sorry I didn't notice,its an error of mime though,and thanks britsimon,just he was explaining something on his post about the dv slow process for EU, thought he had any information concerning that too for AF...thanks for the encouragement though I lost hope already
 
I applied on Jan 7 (EU case) and I was told today my forms - well it was just me and my son under 14 years old- are done processing ..is that a sign the processing time is getting better?
 
adela15 said:
I applied on Jan 7 (EU case) and I was told today my forms - well it was just me and my son under 14 years old- are done processing ..is that a sign the processing time is getting better?
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Yes - more evidence (and there are others) that the cases are being processed faster - about 3 months it seems. What seems to have happened is no more waiting time before the case is picked up. So - if you are current already you can expect your 2NL in about 3 weeks.
 
Britsimon said:
Yes - more evidence (and there are others) that the cases are being processed faster - about 3 months it seems. What seems to have happened is no more waiting time before the case is picked up. So - if you are current already you can expect your 2NL in about 3 weeks.
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Ahhh - just realized who you are - EU375XX - right? It seems they did start processing pretty early OR perhaps the actual processing time is down even faster than 3 months!
 
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