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April 2015 Visa Bulletin Released

Hi there
After several months here am I again, with the sempiternal question about my spouse's DV number which is EU434xx. High number and risky, I know. Last year the cut-off for EU was 40150. So according to your predictions, my friends, is our chance to get an interview still running or going to naught?

Another point, by the way: my spouse is the one who has been selected. If by chance she would get it, she'll have 6 months to emigrate. And she'll have to stay at least 6 months/year in the USA? Will I have to respect the same rules as her husband to keep my GC? If I stay more longer in France, shall I take the risk to loose my GC? And in that case, what happens when the spouse has the GC and her husband no?

Thanks you for your answers....
 
Edouard said:
Hi there
After several months here am I again, with the sempiternal question about my spouse's DV number which is EU434xx. High number and risky, I know. Last year the cut-off for EU was 40150. So according to your predictions, my friends, is our chance to get an interview still running or going to naught?

Another point, by the way: my spouse is the one who has been selected. If by chance she would get it, she'll have 6 months to emigrate. And she'll have to stay at least 6 months/year in the USA? Will I have to respect the same rules as her husband to keep my GC? If I stay more longer in France, shall I take the risk to loose my GC? And in that case, what happens when the spouse has the GC and her husband no?

Thanks you for your answers....
Click to expand...
Hello Edouard, Welcome back. Regarding the second part of your question (maintaining Permanent Residency/Green Card Status), you might want to review the following information in detail: http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/after-green-card-granted/maintaining-permanent-residence
As you will see, requirements are more specific in this respect than just simply staying for 6 months/one year and then leaving the US after that. Good luck to you and your wife for the remainder of the DV year! EURO2014
 
I am sorry to be the bearer of bad news but I don't think your/your spouse's CN is going to be current this year.
But from what I hear, your plan to immigrate to the US doesn't sound very serious.

Should you and your spouse (and kids) receive immigrant visas / GreenCards than each of you is responsible for your own visa. E.g. if you stay in the US a whole year but your wife will be in France for 365 days then only she will lose her visa.
 
Thanks EURO2014. I understand that when you are in the country with a GC, too long trips are risky.
I was just asking, by the way. Better to know all the rules before...
But what about our DV number?
 
Johannes said:
I am sorry to be the bearer of bad news but I don't think your/your spouse's CN is going to be current this year.
But from what I hear, your plan to immigrate to the US doesn't sound very serious.

Should you and your spouse (and kids) receive immigrant visas / GreenCards than each of you is responsible for your own visa. E.g. if you stay in the US a whole year but your wife will be in France for 365 days then only she will lose her visa.
Click to expand...
Hi Johannes...
Yes, our plan to immigrate is serious, I was just asking about the rules about leaving and coming back in the US, better to know it before. But, you know, as a writer, I may have to travel abroad sometimes...
You think by the way our number is to high to have an interview this year. Unfortunately, according to the last current number, I'm afraid you're right...
But who knows? The terrible thing is not to know if we have a chance, a chance on 2 or no chance at all...
 
Edouard said:
Thanks EURO2014. I understand that when you are in the country with a GC, too long trips are risky.
I was just asking, by the way. Better to know all the rules before...
But what about our DV number?
Click to expand...
Hi Edouard, I love you using the word "sempiternal": "1400-50; late Middle English < Late Latin sempiternālis, equivalent to Latin sempitern(us) everlasting semp(er) always + -i- -i- + -ternus suffix of temporal adjectives; see eterne) + -ālis -al1 ", truly you are a great writer, I am not joking!

Also, I do hate to quote myself, as it equates to bad style, yet here is what I think, as mentioned above:"... Until the last Visa Bulletin for May came out for Europe, I certainly would have said you can be pretty confident with a EU40.2xx number, given that, until April, Europe was noticeably ahead, 3.000+ and last year had ended with 40.150. This would certainly make sense, due to changes to Nigeria eligibility etc. Yet, as we all know, progress in May has slowed down and we are now more or less even with last year. This is not the first time this has happened, if you compare with previous years, yet next month's Bulletin will be rather important, in the sense that it hopefully will confirm positive progression for Europe. I am afraid it will be a nail biter until September for EU winners with high lottery numbers, above EU39.500 or so."
 
Ok, than i misunderstood. @EURO2014 gave you an important link about traveling.

I understand your traveling issues as a writer. I am in the Film industry and have to travel a lot as well during shooting.
 
Johannes said:
Ok, than i misunderstood. @EURO2014 gave you an important link about traveling.

I understand your traveling issues as a writer. I am in the Film industry and have to travel a lot as well during shooting.
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Extensive (for example business related) travel is not an issue, specifically as relates to frequent, short trips abroad. These won't be considered as having abandoned your permanent US residency. It is simply part of earning ones livelihood.
 
Thanks both of you... EURO2014, I don't know if I am a great writer, all jokes apart, but writing is my bread and bacon and I do it my best. In french, until now... And no misunderstood, Johannes, even if I have to travel sometimes, my workplace is my study at home...
So, if I understand you well, with a case nimber of EU434xx we have the same chances to win the GC than to win at the races or Casino in Vegas. We have hope and faith for us; but it won't help a much I'm afraid...
But, once again, who knows? There is angels somewhere, and not only in LA...
 
Edouard said:
Thanks both of you... EURO2014, I don't know if I am a great writer, all jokes apart, but writing is my bread and bacon and I do it my best. In french, until now... And no misunderstood, Johannes, even if I have to travel sometimes, my workplace is my study at home...
So, if I understand you well, with a case nimber of EU434xx we have the same chances to win the GC than to win at the races or Casino in Vegas. We have hope and faith for us; but it won't help a much I'm afraid...
But, once again, who knows? There is angels somewhere, and not only in LA...
Click to expand...
Absolutely, if we'll see a VB number in the range of EU34.000/35.000 for June, it is well possible and more than a pipe dream - certainly better chances than winning in Vegas... Best of luck, Edouard, we look forward to the coming VB!
 
I've posted my predictions for the next VB - I see EU at 32XXX or 33XXX. As for the final number - well, up to this point, response looks low in EU (40%), but of course that number is still maturing with late DS260 submissions. I would not have guessed that response would be that low still at this point, and if it stays low then EU numbers over 40XXX have a chance.
 
Britsimon said:
I've posted my predictions for the next VB - I see EU at 32XXX or 33XXX. As for the final number - well, up to this point, response looks low in EU (40%), but of course that number is still maturing with late DS260 submissions. I would not have guessed that response would be that low still at this point, and if it stays low then EU numbers over 40XXX have a chance.
Click to expand...
Oups, hello dear Britsimon, always on the deck, as I can see, and thanks for answering but I didn't get the point.
You say "if it stays low then EU numbers over 40XXX have a chance". Isn't it a bit paradoxal? If the numbers stay low, why the EU numbers over 40xxx would have a chance? I'm not very practical with figures, excuse me, but I would appreciate a little demonstration...
All the best, by the way...
 
Edouard said:
Oups, hello dear Britsimon, always on the deck, as I can see, and thanks for answering but I didn't get the point.
You say "if it stays low then EU numbers over 40XXX have a chance". Isn't it a bit paradoxal? If the numbers stay low, why the EU numbers over 40xxx would have a chance? I'm not very practical with figures, excuse me, but I would appreciate a little demonstration...
All the best, by the way...
Click to expand...

I said if the response rate stays low then the chances for the higher numbers is better. You want a demonstration - ok, let me tell you a story.


Let's say there are the last 10 people on the Titanic and there are only 5 lifejackets. Not everyone will want a lifejacket though as some people would be very happy to stay on the Titanic because the Champagne is free tonight. The 10 people draw lots to see who the order in which they will each be asked whether they want the lifejacket or not. So now they have a case number. IN previous sinking disasters we know that about 7 out of 10 people will want a lifejacket – but one of them on average is too fat to fit in the lifejacket. So – in the average sinking, passenger number 6 has a pretty good chance to get a lifejacket because passengers 1 through 5 won’t all want a lifejacket and one of them might be fat anyway. In the same way, passenger 7 and 8 aren’t feeling too bad. Passenger number 10 is writing a goodbye note to his mother.


Now – for some reason the allure of the champagne means that only 6 out of 10 people want a lifejacket on this ship and passenger number 10 realizes that passenger number 4 is really chubby. Now he has a chance. Do you see what I mean now?


Oh and in case you hadn’t realized, your case number means you are passenger number 10. Normally you would be drowning tonight, but if enough people want the champagne, you might get a chance.
 
What a lovely story, Britsimon, with dire humor indeed. You could write books, I think, even if your readers would certainly commit suicide before the end of the story. Nevertheless, I understand I'm passenger number 10 and I'm hoping the other lads like champagne (as a matter of fact, I like champagne too, but I prefer Bourbon. And a Green card...)
 
Edouard said:
What a lovely story, Britsimon, with dire humor indeed. You could write books, I think, even if your readers would certainly commit suicide before the end of the story. Nevertheless, I understand I'm passenger number 10 and I'm hoping the other lads like champagne (as a matter of fact, I like champagne too, but I prefer Bourbon. And a Green card...)
Click to expand...

LOL. I don't think I would get to publish a second book if all my readers were deceased.
 
Britsimon said:
As for the final number - well, up to this point, response looks low in EU (40%), but of course that number is still maturing [...]
Click to expand...
I've been observing lower European case numbers for a while now, specifically case numbers EU20### which do not interfere with U2 cases neither in 2014 nor in 2015 – these are representing the non-limited countries (other than U2).
Setting 2014 density at 100 points we had from December to March the following densities for 2015:

68.1 – 77.8 – 87.0 – 97.8

The filling of lower ranks is fast and parity almost reached. I did not follow the submission date discussion so can't say whether there is already a noticeable slowdown or not but I doubt there will be a low response rate for these countries (at the end). Responsible for the observed low response rate are the (indistinguishable) limited countries Ukraine and Uzbekistan.

 
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