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Number of 2NLs sent per region.

Simon,
I read your analysis which I found very interesting. I'm beginning to wonder if the whole process at KCC has changed and not just the DS-260 electronic submission. Maybe more work is being done at KCC like extra background checks and stuff like that? I know it does not make sense for them to perform extra tasks and checks for people who may or may not pursue their visa applications but I just can't find a reasonable explanation as to why almost 9 months since the introduction of the DS-260, KCC is still taking 4-5 moths to process the forms.
 
Sammy967 said:
Simon,
I read your analysis which I found very interesting. I'm beginning to wonder if the whole process at KCC has changed and not just the DS-260 electronic submission. Maybe more work is being done at KCC like extra background checks and stuff like that? I know it does not make sense for them to perform extra tasks and checks for people who may or may not pursue their visa applications but I just can't find a reasonable explanation as to why almost 9 months since the introduction of the DS-260, KCC is still taking 4-5 moths to process the forms.
Click to expand...


It is amazing. I don't think they can be doing much more though. Background checks cost money. Many people don't even show up - why do background checks on everyone - better to do just the people that apply and interview.

The other thing is that I am guessing there will be a small increase in cases that were sent in Sept/Oct/Nov since people started to realize the fiasco at that point. That means they are about to start 2 or 3 months of lots of catch up cases. However, they are right around where they should be on visas issued - so this again is a case of us all being horrified and KCC just being cold blooded about meeting their targets.
 
Britsimon said:
It is amazing. I don't think they can be doing much more though. Background checks cost money. Many people don't even show up - why do background checks on everyone - better to do just the people that apply and interview.

The other thing is that I am guessing there will be a small increase in cases that were sent in Sept/Oct/Nov since people started to realize the fiasco at that point. That means they are about to start 2 or 3 months of lots of catch up cases. However, they are right around where they should be on visas issued - so this again is a case of us all being horrified and KCC just being cold blooded about meeting their targets.
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I think the next couple of months would tell whether it was just a backlog or something else. While I agree that the electronic submission may have made it easier for people to apply, I don't however think the difference would be that much in terms of the number of people submitting applications right after their 1NL. Besides, there are 15,000 less selectees than last year! No wonder people don't call KCC KFC anymore! There's nothing fast about it anymore :)
 
I presume that KCC has different people dealing with each type of visa, ie DV visas are dealt with by a dedicated unit?

I found something from a few years ago that said that while KCC dealt with (at that stage) 100k DV cases a year, it was dealing with 12k non-immigrant visas per week.
 
More analysis per 1000 cases. It look almost same as last year. I compared DV2014 scheduled cases Vs. DV2015 scheduled cases per 1000, it is almost same range.

upload_2015-1-26_10-49-22.png
 
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Idea Mani said:
Here we go
View attachment 365
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It's a good idea to put it side by side like that. However, there are some issues with the comparison.

The DV2014 data represents cases that were scheduled. That means they had submitted their 230/122 forms (and processing of the paper forms did not cause any delays). The 2015 numbers are not (yet) ideally comparable - because we know there are many cases shown "at NVC" which are waiting for forms to be processed - but we don't know how many. AS region seems to be doing better than AF and EU, but perhaps that is due to cultural differences.

AF in particular has increased density this year due mostly to the exclusion of Nigeria. So - 1000 AF cases should yield more scheduled interviews in 2015 than DV2014. If it doesn't that is a clear indication of the backlog - so to me it looks like we are only seeing about 50% of the scheduled cases so far (due to the backlog).

EU also has slightly increased density. So we could assume that EU scheduled cases should get to at least the same cases per 1000 as DV2014. Right now it looks like they are around 60% of where I would expect them to be.

So - applying those figures, I would say we will see (conservatively) about another 5800 cases get scheduled in AF region from within cases already current and around 3000 more cases in EU. Again - those are on the low side - but even those numbers will be significantly disruptive to "normal" VB progress.
 
Idea Mani said:
Here we go
View attachment 365
Click to expand...

Make something like a time series of scheduled cases in 2015 and 2014, or even better of their quotients DV2015/DV2014 (*100), like this one for Europe:

uc

​
The numbers will increase with time but eventually remain constant. At that point you will be able to compare the densities, and you can calculate final cut-offs.
 
DV4ROGER said:
Make something like a time series of scheduled cases in 2015 and 2014, or even better of their quotients DV2015/DV2014 (*100), like this one for Europe:

uc

​
The numbers will increase with time but eventually remain constant. At that point you will be able to compare the densities, and you can calculate final cut-offs.
Click to expand...

Agreed, but unfortunately I think it will continue to grow until very late in the process. It will be interesting to watch though.
 
I don't know if I was disappointed or more amused that no one realised how very spectacular the table was that I published earlier this month.
 
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