• Hello Members, This forums is for DV lottery visas only. For other immigration related questions, please go to our forums home page, find the related forum and post it there.

DV 2015 KENYA SELECTEES FORUM

Hello friends and moderators. @Britsimon @SusieQQQ , I know there is this issue of the effect of Nigeria being excluded that you explained earlier. Forgive me for taking you back on this but i was asking that we may be a bit practical here and explain to me.. Not all students have the same understanding:). If Nigeria is excluded,then about the 3500 visas are redistributed to other regions? I saw in the past post that may be each region get 1350? Ok am not sure here too but assume that is what happens, supposedly the total number that was there initially in Nigeria is 6000 selectees, then they have only lost equal number,but redistributed to other regions? I think this Nigeria exclusion is hard to understand. Last time they were considered with Ethiopia and slowed,do you think the redistribution of their visas will allow the numbers to go to at least CN 75000? I guess you may notice am trying to be relevant but this i hope is an important information that we could use to probably estimate and think of the worst case scenario. Last year not all cases went current. I noticed some years back all went current. @Sm1smom .I have tagged these fellows since they understand the issue better. i hope you will not get mad that am taking you back. I know this information is equally important to some other people. I am still new but I have been reading a lot. And just think may be it is time to understand the figures and facts.
Thank you all friends
 
McOmbija said:
Hello friends and moderators. @Britsimon @SusieQQQ , I know there is this issue of the effect of Nigeria being excluded that you explained earlier. Forgive me for taking you back on this but i was asking that we may be a bit practical here and explain to me.. Not all students have the same understanding:). If Nigeria is excluded,then about the 3500 visas are redistributed to other regions? I saw in the past post that may be each region get 1350? Ok am not sure here too but assume that is what happens, supposedly the total number that was there initially in Nigeria is 6000 selectees, then they have only lost equal number,but redistributed to other regions? I think this Nigeria exclusion is hard to understand. Last time they were considered with Ethiopia and slowed,do you think the redistribution of their visas will allow the numbers to go to at least CN 75000? I guess you may notice am trying to be relevant but this i hope is an important information that we could use to probably estimate and think of the worst case scenario. Last year not all cases went current. I noticed some years back all went current. @Sm1smom .I have tagged these fellows since they understand the issue better. i hope you will not get mad that am taking you back. I know this information is equally important to some other people. I am still new but I have been reading a lot. And just think may be it is time to understand the figures and facts.
Thank you all friends
Click to expand...


OK, so I did find your PM and you email on the same subject.

You are basically asking how how the case numbers will go in DV2015. One way is we can guess is in relation to last year. We know there are too many selectees again, so we don't need to think about the region going current, but will it be higher or lower than last year (81100). That is a very tough question to answer with any precision as there are several variables such as:

1. The maximum quota established for AF region (calculations by DV4Roger)
2. The density of the case numbers (how many holes there are caused by the draw process)
3. How many people simply don't apply (tends to not change dramatically year to year, although a local issue like wars or Ebola could impact certain countries).
4. How many people get refused at the interview (tends to not change dramatically year to year, although something like an education standard change could impact a country)
5. This year there may also be an impact from the DS260 fiasco.

There is also a discussion about the impact of Nigeria being excluded at this post.

The links are worth reading to get an idea of the subject - I don't want to re-write that all here....

So - in summary, I think DV4Roger has done a good job of calculating the quota (which takes account of the redistribution of "Nigerian visas". Let's assume AF will get around 21k this year - that represents a reduction in quota from last year. The density of the case numbers will be significantly higher (more dense) because of Nigeria. Therefore I think it is very unlikely we will see the same high case number as last year. DV4Roger is thinking the cutoff will come in the low 60's, I am hoping it will be higher than that - around 70k (low 70's perhaps).

Remember, this is all guesswork - I could be entirely wrong - and point number 5 above is a possible impact (but if the delays were to continue, that would cause numbers to go slightly higher since some late cases would be stuck in processing).
 
Britsimon said:
OK, so I did find your PM and you email on the same subject.

You are basically asking how how the case numbers will go in DV2015. One way is we can guess is in relation to last year. We know there are too many selectees again, so we don't need to think about the region going current, but will it be higher or lower than last year (81100). That is a very tough question to answer with any precision as there are several variables such as:

1. The maximum quota established for AF region (calculations by DV4Roger)
2. The density of the case numbers (how many holes there are caused by the draw process)
3. How many people simply don't apply (tends to not change dramatically year to year, although a local issue like wars or Ebola could impact certain countries).
4. How many people get refused at the interview (tends to not change dramatically year to year, although something like an education standard change could impact a country)
5. This year there may also be an impact from the DS260 fiasco.

There is also a discussion about the impact of Nigeria being excluded at this post.

The links are worth reading to get an idea of the subject - I don't want to re-write that all here....

So - in summary, I think DV4Roger has done a good job of calculating the quota (which takes account of the redistribution of "Nigerian visas". Let's assume AF will get around 21k this year - that represents a reduction in quota from last year. The density of the case numbers will be significantly higher (more dense) because of Nigeria. Therefore I think it is very unlikely we will see the same high case number as last year. DV4Roger is thinking the cutoff will come in the low 60's, I am hoping it will be higher than that - around 70k (low 70's perhaps).

Remember, this is all guesswork - I could be entirely wrong - and point number 5 above is a possible impact (but if the delays were to continue, that would cause numbers to go slightly higher since some late cases would be stuck in processing).
Click to expand...
No wonder I actually contacted you. I can see the good job you guys are doing. Clearly, I also understand that these are simply guesswork. The only person who knows the final cut-off at this time is God. Let us hope everything is fine. Again sir,thank you for the insight. I have read all the links. We shall wait and see.thank you again.
 
Britsimon said:
OK, so I did find your PM and you email on the same subject.

You are basically asking how how the case numbers will go in DV2015. One way is we can guess is in relation to last year. We know there are too many selectees again, so we don't need to think about the region going current, but will it be higher or lower than last year (81100). That is a very tough question to answer with any precision as there are several variables such as:

1. The maximum quota established for AF region (calculations by DV4Roger)
2. The density of the case numbers (how many holes there are caused by the draw process)
3. How many people simply don't apply (tends to not change dramatically year to year, although a local issue like wars or Ebola could impact certain countries).
4. How many people get refused at the interview (tends to not change dramatically year to year, although something like an education standard change could impact a country)
5. This year there may also be an impact from the DS260 fiasco.

There is also a discussion about the impact of Nigeria being excluded at this post.

The links are worth reading to get an idea of the subject - I don't want to re-write that all here....

So - in summary, I think DV4Roger has done a good job of calculating the quota (which takes account of the redistribution of "Nigerian visas". Let's assume AF will get around 21k this year - that represents a reduction in quota from last year. The density of the case numbers will be significantly higher (more dense) because of Nigeria. Therefore I think it is very unlikely we will see the same high case number as last year. DV4Roger is thinking the cutoff will come in the low 60's, I am hoping it will be higher than that - around 70k (low 70's perhaps).

Remember, this is all guesswork - I could be entirely wrong - and point number 5 above is a possible impact (but if the delays were to continue, that would cause numbers to go slightly higher since some late cases would be stuck in processing).
Click to expand...




Britsimon kindly enlighten me on this, what causes the case numbers to jump so significantly towards the end of the fiscal year. Is it that the holes are more? Also when your cn is below the cut off in the VB is it a guarantee that you will receive the visa holding other factors constant?
 
Last edited:
gitma said:
Britsimon kindly enlighten me on this, what causes the case numbers to jump so significantly towards the end of the fiscal year. Is it that the holes are more? Also when your cn is below the cut off in the VB is it a guarantee that you will receive the visa holding other factors constant?
Click to expand...

Well, the big jumps may not happen, but you are correct, once limited countries exhaust their selectees, there are more holes - we say the density is lower.

As for being guaranteed your visa if you are under the cutoff, no you absolutely cannot guarantee that. In the final weeks of the year, things get a bit "random". Last year, there were even people that were approved in the interview but they never received their visas. So, you are only sure once you have your visa in your hand.
 
What's your opinion on this:
While filling our DS, I and my daughter indicated my sis in law as our hosts thus their state as our POE while my hubby indicated his bro (hubby to my sis in law above:p) as his host. The address is the same in all 3cases but the name of the hosts is what is different.do u guys think I need to contact KCC for them to re~open my DS file?pls be kind in your response:oops:
 
Kenyan gal said:
What's your opinion on this:
While filling our DS, I and my daughter indicated my sis in law as our hosts thus their state as our POE while my hubby indicated his bro (hubby to my sis in law above:p) as his host. The address is the same in all 3cases but the name of the hosts is what is different.do u guys think I need to contact KCC for them to re~open my DS file?pls be kind in your response:oops:
Click to expand...


That makes no difference at all - no need to correct the forms.
 
Kenyan gal said:
What's your opinion on this:
While filling our DS, I and my daughter indicated my sis in law as our hosts thus their state as our POE while my hubby indicated his bro (hubby to my sis in law above:p) as his host. The address is the same in all 3cases but the name of the hosts is what is different.do u guys think I need to contact KCC for them to re~open my DS file?pls be kind in your response:oops:
Click to expand...

What??? :eek::eek: You unbelievably did that and you want us to be gentle (or was it kind your said) in our response? You wanna see kind/gentle?

49-Teresa-Giudice-Flipping-Tables-Top-Chef-1115_00.gif


Lol .... Stop stressing, no big deal about that, no reason to contact KCC about that.
 
usken go said:
Ha ha ha true. Tell us Guriix about your pursuit for that VW GT. Here, average blokes talk Toyotas 1500cc-2000cc. My friends In US say that a new vw gt will cost you about 20k.
Of course starters do not splash out that and it is a horizontal financial movement, that is if you had a car before flying out.You think about 8k and you will be mobile, in good condition, spoilt for choice.
Click to expand...

I didn't get a VW, couldn't get one for my budget. Settled for an Audi A4. Craigslist Houston is what I used.
 
Sm1smom said:
What??? :eek::eek: You unbelievably did that and you want us to be gentle (or was it kind your said) in our response? You wanna see kind/gentle?

49-Teresa-Giudice-Flipping-Tables-Top-Chef-1115_00.gif


Lol .... Stop stressing, no big deal about that, no reason to contact KCC about that.
Click to expand...

That's barbaric...hahaha
Thanks guys
 
Simon said:
A while ago he gave me the reason why he doesn't want to be a member and one was about people speculating on some issues and if you go through my article (in the month of October 2014) you will see his questions being asked by his host-It was about whether its a must to go to the KNEC and the host said he will have to call KCC regarding the same-He is learned though.
So,please lets just wait and he will surely come out with the experience-I have his number and we used to share alot;Check the article below
Click to expand...
hii simon, pls advice , my marriage cert has an additional for my spouse for instance, my sp name in passport, birthcert, and all other doc is xxxx yyyy but for marriage cert is xxxx yyyy zzzz will avidafit do for this. what are consequences
 
koechf said:
hii simon, pls advice , my marriage cert has an additional for my spouse for instance, my sp name in passport, birthcert, and all other doc is xxxx yyyy but for marriage cert is xxxx yyyy zzzz will avidavit do for this. what are consequences.
Click to expand...
pardon my spelling mistake . it is an affidavit.
 
koechf said:
hii simon, pls advice , my marriage cert has an additional for my spouse for instance, my sp name in passport, birthcert, and all other doc is xxxx yyyy but for marriage cert is xxxx yyyy zzzz will avidafit do for this. what are consequences
Click to expand...
If I may get you correctly,its like a surname(your middle) was added as her third(now sir name).
Married women in Kenya and may be most parts of the world have added their spouses names as their third names replacing the fathers names:to read Mrs zzzz.
To me affidavit will do since its a common practice.
However:You didn't mention her name as its read in the eDV (Initial application letter) by the time of application,what did you write and were you married then?
 
Simon said:
If I may get you correctly,its like a surname(your middle) was added as her third(now sir name).
Married women in Kenya and may be most parts of the world have added their spouses names as their third names replacing the fathers names:to read Mrs zzzz.
To me affidavit will do since its a common practice.
However:You didn't mention her name as its read in the eDV (Initial application letter) by the time of application,what did you write and were you married then?
Click to expand...
on my initial dv i wrote her name as xxxx yyyy, all the same for birth cert, passport, kcse and national id. we got married few years ago which i indicated also on my initial dv. xxxx is her father(family)surname, yyyy is her surname , zzzz is her christian which does not appear anywhere apart from marriage cert. i am wondering.
 
Today ( December 1st 2014) marks my 9th day and begining of the second week since POE.Haven't gotten my SSN yet.We visited a certain company(factory) that was recruiting / opening for the first time.
We were three of us, the other two dv 2014 from Kenya had their SSN,after the interview and signing some documents they were told to start on Monday while I was requested to get in touch with the manager once my SSN is out (Job is guaranteed).I visited another company which had job openings and the story was the same(filled up all the forms but call us once you have the SSN)
Term of service is $11 per hour @ 40 hours per week,Extra benefits given and guarantee for permanent employment after a month.
Visited the Social Services Department and was advised to get in touch with them if by 15th of Dec 2014 the package would not have been sent.
Cant's regret being in New Jersey...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top