DV 2015 Oceania winners

[connectedspace]

That's a really good point, hope 2015 gets back to Current for my sake

That would be pretty amazing. Not necessarily impossible, I guess, but unlikely. Because I'm a nerd, let's plug in some numbers to see the likelihood.

We'll consider two possible issue rates:

1. Conservative: 0.52 visas/CN. This number presumes increasing interest in migration to America with worsening economic conditions in OC countries, plus a high-ish number of AOS cases for Oceanians living in the US that aren't showing in the current CEAC data.

2. Ambitious: 0.42 visas/CN. This number presumes an average-ish number of AOS cases this year and steady or falling interest in migration.

Let's be very generous and say we get 2% of the Nigerian visas -- that's 0.02(3252) = 65. The highest number of visas OC has had issued in recent times is 831, possibly because some large players were missing in the game. Let's nonetheless presume the Visa Powers feel like smiling on OC in 2015 like they smiled on EU in 2014 and give us an historic high quota plus Nigeria's visas.

That's 896. With our conservative rate of 0.52, the top CN will be 896/0.52 = 1723. With the ambitious rate of 0.42, we have 2133.

The highest number I've heard of for 2015 is 2200 odd -- just a little beyond this. So not out of the realm of possibility, but terribly unlikely.

My estimate is we'll see the conservative visa issue rate and about the same quota as this year, plus 50 from Nigeria, meaning CNs > 1550 (including mine, sadly) are going to be out in the cold. That chimes with this year's OC theme of selecting double the number of people but only issuing to the same number as previous years.

I think your best option is to join me in applying for DV 2016 and praying for a CN < 1300.

 

[guestgulkan]

Asking as a 14xx person - how does a pessimistic analysis with low visa numbers and high density look?

 

[connectedspace]

Asking as a 14xx person - how does a pessimistic analysis with low visa numbers and high density look?

Bearing in mind this is all speculation. Wait until the final CEAC data arrives in September before we start resigning hope:

My conservative number of 0.52, combined with quota of 700, which I think is a reasonable lower limit considering we'll get a few from Nigeria, yields 1346, so call it 1340 to be super conservative.

I don't think it'll be that grim. I'd put money on you getting a September interview, although KCC has proved we can't underestimate them.

 

[Britsimon]

Bearing in mind this is all speculation. Wait until the final CEAC data arrives in September before we start resigning hope:

My conservative number of 0.52, combined with quota of 700, which I think is a reasonable lower limit considering we'll get a few from Nigeria, yields 1346, so call it 1340 to be super conservative.

I don't think it'll be that grim. I'd put money on you getting a September interview, although KCC has proved we can't underestimate them.

Yep, SURELY, that has to be the most conservative view. I sure expect and hope it will be higher...

 

[connectedspace]

Yep, SURELY, that has to be the most conservative view. I sure expect and hope it will be higher...

I bloody hope so. I'm burning a stick of incense every night in prayer it'll hit 1600. May as well - it'll make me feel better than the semi-informed speculation I'm prone to!

 

[guestgulkan]

My conservative number of 0.52, combined with quota of 700, which I think is a reasonable lower limit considering we'll get a few from Nigeria, yields 1346, so call it 1340 to be super conservative.

Ouch! I was feeling relaxed about my number until the August VB came out, now I'm going to be stressed all year.

 

[connectedspace]

Ouch! I was feeling relaxed about my number until the August VB came out, now I'm going to be stressed all year.

That's really as worst(ish) case scenario. As I said, I'd put money, and quite a bit of it, on you going current. If we proceed exactly as this year, only with Nigeria's 50 visas, we'll be somewhere between 1500 and 1550 by September. The only thing that'll hit you is if the visas/CN rate goes up or the quota goes down.

If, moreover, EU and (to a lesser extent) SA don't eat our lunch again next year, there will be a few of us breathing easier.

 

[guestgulkan]

I've been pondering why SA received more visas this year and we didn't and I think it's because of Honduras' return..

 

[connectedspace]

Weren't Honduras in DV2013? Guatemala came back in 2014, and they're a large population so that explains some of the SA increase.

 

[guestgulkan]

Oh yeh sorry I meant Guatemala.

 

[EmilyW]

Oh man, I so need a shove with this DS260. It's been sitting, ready, waiting.... and I can't. bring. myself. to. submit. I'm terrified that I have done something wrong in the form.

Tonight is the night. I'm gonna submit tonight. Or maybe tomorrow.

 

[Britsimon]

Oh man, I so need a shove with this DS260. It's been sitting, ready, waiting.... and I can't. bring. myself. to. submit. I'm terrified that I have done something wrong in the form.

Tonight is the night. I'm gonna submit tonight. Or maybe tomorrow.

LOL - give yourself a break.

1. As long as you haven't made any of the really dumb mistakes (like remembering you have a husband you forgot to mention earlier), then you won't get disqualified NO MATTER how bad your form is.
2. Based on you number becoming current around May of next year you could submit your 260 in JANUARY of next year and still not slow your case one moment.
3. Your number is low enough to be certain that there will be visas left when you go current.
4. A smart approach would be to hold off until we hear more about everyone else's mistakes on their 260 and how it impacted them or not - so personally I think you did well not to submit the form and I personally would not be submitting it for months yet...

So, for the second time today I get to tell someone to "take a chill pill".

 

[connectedspace]

LOL - give yourself a break.

1. As long as you haven't made any of the really dumb mistakes (like remembering you have a husband you forgot to mention earlier), then you won't get disqualified NO MATTER how bad your form is.
2. Based on you number becoming current around May of next year you could submit your 260 in JANUARY of next year and still not slow your case one moment.
3. Your number is low enough to be certain that there will be visas left when you go current.
4. A smart approach would be to hold off until we hear more about everyone else's mistakes on their 260 and how it impacted them or not - so personally I think you did well not to submit the form and I personally would not be submitting it for months yet...

So, for the second time today I get to tell someone to "take a chill pill".

Yes. Further to that, KCC are very good about unlocking the form if you need to change something. I personally submitted mine back in May, because I'm a stubborn and impatient. I needed to change something and had them unlocked last week -- all fixed and done.

I'm not worried, even if I should be

 

[EmilyW]

Ok, it's done. I'm happy that the info is correct even if we have been inconsistent with how we wrote the states (sometimes it was Victoria and other times it was Vic) but I don't think that matters. Well, if it still bothers me in two months time, I'll change it.

Thanks to all.

 

[AussieGemma]

Emily, I know exactly how you were feeling. Well done on submitting the forms! Is it a relief to have submitted them? I know it was for me.

 

[EmilyW]

It is a relief, Gemma. We have to submit a supplementary email to KCC about a couple of things (we have apostrophes in our names but you can't enter them in on the DS260, so we need to explain that, when my husband initially filled in my entry to the lottery, he didn't put in his second middle name) but other than that, we're pretty happy and think we've got it right. Time will tell, right?

Now I'm focussed on DV2016. LOL.

 

[connectedspace]

It is a relief, Gemma. We have to submit a supplementary email to KCC about a couple of things (we have apostrophes in our names but you can't enter them in on the DS260, so we need to explain that, when my husband initially filled in my entry to the lottery, he didn't put in his second middle name) but other than that, we're pretty happy and think we've got it right. Time will tell, right?

Now I'm focussed on DV2016. LOL.

Why is that? Do you think you mightn't go current?

 

[EmilyW]

No I'm pretty sure we'll go current.

It's just that my husband filled in his and my application form and he made one mistake when he omitted his own second middle name. He also put the city of his birth rather than his place of birth as per his birth certificate and passport (not a mistake, just a misinterpretation of the form on his part). So there is one error in the original form, which we have rectified in the DS260 and have informed the KCC of, but I'm still a bit nervous that we look dodgy when it's more just my husband being a buffoon.

I'm the principal but I still worry.

So, just in case it matters, I'm doing the entry for DV2016 just in case and - this time - I'm entering the data.

 

[Britsimon]

No I'm pretty sure we'll go current.

It's just that my husband filled in his and my application form and he made one mistake when he omitted his own second middle name. He also put the city of his birth rather than his place of birth as per his birth certificate and passport (not a mistake, just a misinterpretation of the form on his part). So there is one error in the original form, which we have rectified in the DS260 and have informed the KCC of, but I'm still a bit nervous that we look dodgy when it's more just my husband being a buffoon.

I'm the principal but I still worry.

So, just in case it matters, I'm doing the entry for DV2016 just in case and - this time - I'm entering the data.

Those issues wouldn't cause much of a problem if HE were the principal, but as you are the principal those errors won't even be discussed.

 

[SusieQQQ]

No I'm pretty sure we'll go current.

It's just that my husband filled in his and my application form and he made one mistake when he omitted his own second middle name. He also put the city of his birth rather than his place of birth as per his birth certificate and passport (not a mistake, just a misinterpretation of the form on his part). So there is one error in the original form, which we have rectified in the DS260 and have informed the KCC of, but I'm still a bit nervous that we look dodgy when it's more just my husband being a buffoon.

I'm the principal but I still worry.

So, just in case it matters, I'm doing the entry for DV2016 just in case and - this time - I'm entering the data.

Emily, just to add to what britsimon said: please try relax. At this rate you'll be dead of a stress-induced heart attack before the fiscal year even begins. Are you qualified for DV? Have no criminal record? Have not hidden any dependents from the forms? Relax, the visa is yours.