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Visa bulletin current in September 2013

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  • Visa bulletin current in September 2013

    Anyone's CN is current in September 2013?Time looks very tight,how can i get interview within a month?
    Last edited by pm2020; 10th July 2013, 09:26 AM.

  • #2
    Are the new results out?
    DV2014OC000020Xx
    Gender: Female
    Entry Checked: 05/01/2013
    Forms sent to KCC: 06/01/2013
    Confirmed by KCC via email: Not Yet
    2nd NL: Not Yet
    Documents: Not Yet
    Police Report: Not Yet
    Medicals: Not Yet
    Interview:Not Yet
    POE: LAX ?

    Join our Facebook group
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    Comment


    • #3
      B. DIVERSITY IMMIGRANT (DV) CATEGORY FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST

      Section 203(c) of the INA provides up to 55,000 immigrant visas each fiscal year to permit additional immigration opportunities for persons from countries with low admissions during the previous five years. The NACARA stipulates that beginning with DV-99, and for as long as necessary, up to 5,000 of the 55,000 annually-allocated diversity visas will be made available for use under the NACARA program. This resulted in reduction of the DV-2013 annual limit to 50,000. DV visas are divided among six geographic regions. No one country can receive more than seven percent of the available diversity visas in any one year.

      For August, immigrant numbers in the DV category are available to qualified DV-2013 applicants chargeable to all regions/eligible countries as follows. When an allocation cut-off number is shown, visas are available only for applicants with DV regional lottery rank numbers BELOW the specified allocation cut-off number:

      Region All DV Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed Separately


      AFRICA 81,200 Except:Nigeria 19,800
      ASIA CURRENT
      EUROPE CURRENT Except:Uzbekistan 19,000
      NORTH AMERICA (BAHAMAS) 3
      OCEANIA 1,600
      SOUTH AMERICA, and the CARIBBEAN CURRENT
      Entitlement to immigrant status in the DV category lasts only through the end of the fiscal (visa) year for which the applicant is selected in the lottery. The year of entitlement for all applicants registered for the DV-2013 program ends as of September 30, 2013. DV visas may not be issued to DV-2013 applicants after that date. Similarly, spouses and children accompanying or following to join DV-2013 principals are only entitled to derivative DV status until September 30, 2013. DV visa availability through the very end of FY-2013 cannot be taken for granted. Numbers could be exhausted prior to September 30.

      C. THE DIVERSITY (DV) IMMIGRANT CATEGORY RANK CUT-OFFS WHICH WILL APPLY IN SEPTEMBER

      For September, immigrant numbers in the DV category are available to qualified DV-2013 applicants chargeable to all regions/eligible countries as follows. When an allocation cut-off number is shown, visas are available only for applicants with DV regional lottery rank numbers BELOW the specified allocation cut-off number:

      Region All DV Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed Separately
      AFRICA CURRENT
      ASIA CURRENT
      EUROPE CURRENT
      NORTH AMERICA (BAHAMAS) CURRENT
      OCEANIA
      CURRENT


      SOUTH AMERICA, and the CARIBBEAN CURRENT
      DV2014OC000020Xx
      Gender: Female
      Entry Checked: 05/01/2013
      Forms sent to KCC: 06/01/2013
      Confirmed by KCC via email: Not Yet
      2nd NL: Not Yet
      Documents: Not Yet
      Police Report: Not Yet
      Medicals: Not Yet
      Interview:Not Yet
      POE: LAX ?

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      Comment


      • #4
        Results for max open number for DV-13 are ready. Prospects for the corridor for max number invited for interview in DV-14 are clear too.
        AF 97,000 - 116,400. We have seen wins up to 116,xxx, they are within the corridor and have a chance.
        AS 10,700 - 12,800. We have seen wins up to 26,xxx. Unfortunately, at least 51% of those winners will not be invited to the interview (above 12,800).
        EU 32,000 - 38,500. We have seen wins up to 54,000. Unfortunately, at least 29% of those winners will not be invited to the interview (above 38,500).
        NA 2 - 25. Difficult to predict because of high volatility.
        OC 1,640 - 1,970. We have seen wins up to 2,9xx. Unfortunately, at least 32% of those winners will not be invited to the interview (above 1,970).
        SA 1,300 - 1,580. We have seen wins up to 2,xxx. Unfortunately, at least 21% of those winners will not be invited to the interview (above 1,580).
        Last edited by raevsky; 10th July 2013, 02:14 PM.

        Comment


        • #5
          Hi Raevsky,

          How can you just use dv-2013 to predict dv-2014? We don't know how many case # issued for each region in dv-2014 at this point because the case # have holes in it and also number of the dependents for each principle applicant.

          For example, in dv-2013 in Asia region, the max case # is 12,800 (as you mentioned above) and there are 16k+ winners for Asia region in dv-2013. Even without holes, the max case # should be 16,000 and not 12,800. The reason I can think of why the max case number is 12,800 is because the dependent is also counted as selectee. If that is the case, we have no way to predict the outcome of dv-2014 without knowing how many case# issue. how many holes and how many dependent for each case #.

          Comment


          • #6
            How can you just use dv-2013 to predict dv-2014? We don't know how many case # issued for each region in dv-2014 at this point because the case # have holes in it and also number of the dependents for each principle applicant.
            The number of holes is about the same in dv-13 and dv-14

            For example, in dv-2013 in Asia region, the max case # is 12,800 (as you mentioned above)
            No, in dv-13 it is 10700

            and there are 16k+ winners for Asia region in dv-2013.
            Those 16k winners are primary entrants only, not including dependents

            Even without holes, the max case # should be 16,000 and not 12,800.
            It should, but it is only 10700. That is because 16k include both hidden winners and open winners. Read the basics. Only open winners are notified, hidden winners are not.

            The reason I can think of why the max case number is 12,800 is because the dependent is also counted as selectee.
            Dependents are not included into 16k. That is only primary winners.

            If that is the case, we have no way to predict the outcome of dv-2014 without knowing how many case# issue. how many holes and how many dependent for each case #.
            They are about the same for DV-7, dv-8, dv-9, dv-10, dv-11 and dv-13. Just exclude Bangladesh, they will be the same.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by raevsky View Post
              Results for max open number for DV-13 are ready. Prospects for the corridor for max number invited for interview in DV-14 are clear too.
              AF 97,000 - 116,400. We have seen wins up to 116,xxx, they are within the corridor and have a chance.
              AS 10,700 - 12,800. We have seen wins up to 26,xxx. Unfortunately, at least 51% of those winners will not be invited to the interview (above 12,800).
              EU 32,000 - 38,500. We have seen wins up to 54,000. Unfortunately, at least 29% of those winners will not be invited to the interview (above 38,500).
              NA 2 - 25. Difficult to predict because of high volatility.
              OC 1,640 - 1,970. We have seen wins up to 2,9xx. Unfortunately, at least 32% of those winners will not be invited to the interview (above 1,970).
              SA 1,300 - 1,580. We have seen wins up to 2,xxx. Unfortunately, at least 21% of those winners will not be invited to the interview (above 1,580).
              These statements are incorrect. Are you trying to say that next year not all numbers will become current but instead there will be a cut-off number for the regions you selected?? This has never happened in previous years. All numbers became current by the end of the FY and I am pretty sure next year won't be an exception.
              CN 2014EU00025XXX
              05/0/2013 Selected for further processing
              05/07/2013 AOS fee payment to U.S. Department of State
              05/18/2013 Received fee payment receipt
              06/10/2013 Sent DS-122 to KCC
              08/14/2013 2NL received
              03/10/2014 Visa bulletin:Current May 1st
              03/28/2014 Chicago LockBox
              04/10/2014 NOA
              04/17/2014 Biometrics letter (appointment 5/08/2014)
              04/18/2014 Biometrics walk-in
              ?? Interview letter
              ?? Interview
              ?? Card production

              Comment


              • #8
                "No, in dv-13 it is 10700"

                If dv-13 is 10700, and 16k+ selectee. Let take half of it are holes, it means only 5K selectee notify and there hidden 11k selectee? If they already hide selectee in dv-13, why they need to increase 20% selectee in dv-2014.

                Comment


                • #9
                  These statements are incorrect.
                  I disagree

                  Are you trying to say that next year not all numbers will become current but instead there will be a cut-off number for the regions you selected??
                  Correct

                  This has never happened in previous years.
                  Exactly, this lottery will surely look more like a more remote one.

                  All numbers became current by the end of the FY and I am pretty sure next year won't be an exception.
                  Something different from what you describe happened many times in the past and I am pretty sure this will happen next year too.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    psAlbsc ufe

                    Originally posted by kayend View Post
                    "No, in dv-13 it is 10700"

                    If dv-13 is 10700, and 16k+ selectee. Let take half of it are holes, it means only 5K selectee notify and there hidden 11k selectee? If they already hide selectee in dv-13, why they need to increase 20% selectee in dv-2014.
                    Only 15% were holes in DV-13, there is no purpose to assume something meaningless.
                    They need to increase selectees because EU and SA regions were underfilled since DOS decided not to release hidden winners. Other regions might have had some low underfilling too.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      OC is actually up to 3,000 this year not high 2k
                      DV2014OC000020Xx
                      Gender: Female
                      Entry Checked: 05/01/2013
                      Forms sent to KCC: 06/01/2013
                      Confirmed by KCC via email: Not Yet
                      2nd NL: Not Yet
                      Documents: Not Yet
                      Police Report: Not Yet
                      Medicals: Not Yet
                      Interview:Not Yet
                      POE: LAX ?

                      Join our Facebook group
                      https://www.facebook.com/groups/aussiegreencard/

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        While what you are saying is very disheartening for me personally ( low 2,000's Oceania) I guess we will have to wait and see.
                        DV2014OC000020Xx
                        Gender: Female
                        Entry Checked: 05/01/2013
                        Forms sent to KCC: 06/01/2013
                        Confirmed by KCC via email: Not Yet
                        2nd NL: Not Yet
                        Documents: Not Yet
                        Police Report: Not Yet
                        Medicals: Not Yet
                        Interview:Not Yet
                        POE: LAX ?

                        Join our Facebook group
                        https://www.facebook.com/groups/aussiegreencard/

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          OC is actually up to 3,000 this year not high 2k
                          Not much difference for me between 2999 and 3000.
                          While what you are saying is very disheartening for me personally ( low 2,000's Oceania) I guess we will have to wait and see.
                          Yes, wait and see, that is a good solution for the problem.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            This has never happened in previous years.
                            Actually, incorrect. In August and September DV-11 Uzbekistan was Unavailable. And in July DV-11 it had a cutoff 28,200 below regional. I assume your term "recent" includes DV-11. I am wrong if it only referrs to DV-12 and DV-13

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              what would you suggest instead that everyone above the numbers you quoted just give up now???? Good lord at least show some compassion for others
                              This is up to you. I really do not care.
                              A possible solution is not to submit forms to KCC, because submitting forms triggers immigrant intent.
                              Another possible solution is to submit forms and pray for a miracle.
                              I am sure there are a lot of other solutions as well. Sorry, I am not in the position to invent them.

                              Comment


                              • #16
                                Originally posted by raevsky View Post
                                Only 15% were holes in DV-13, there is no purpose to assume something meaningless.
                                They need to increase selectees because EU and SA regions were underfilled since DOS decided not to release hidden winners. Other regions might have had some low underfilling too.
                                15% were holes? Are you sure about it? If you check the CEAC web site, we roughly know there are definitely more than 15% of holes in dv-13. Just try from 0-100 case #, it has almost 50 number not found.

                                Comment


                                • #17
                                  Originally posted by kayend View Post
                                  15% were holes? Are you sure about it? If you check the CEAC web site, we roughly know there are definitely more than 15% of holes in dv-13. Just try from 0-100 case #, it has almost 50 number not found.
                                  More or less sure.
                                  CEAC website does not include a number of consulates (quite a lot though, including AOS cases), and it also does not include those who did not submit forms to KCC.

                                  Comment


                                  • #18
                                    Originally posted by raevsky View Post
                                    More or less sure.
                                    CEAC website does not include a number of consulates (quite a lot though, including AOS cases), and it also does not include those who did not submit forms to KCC.
                                    Even it is only 15%. They only notify 9k selectee out of 16k selectee? It's more than 40% hidden selectee. In Asia about 8k visa issued each year and it only notify 9k selectee with the statistic of 50-60% success rate?

                                    Comment


                                    • #19
                                      Originally posted by raevsky View Post
                                      Only 15% were holes in DV-13, there is no purpose to assume something meaningless.
                                      They need to increase selectees because EU and SA regions were underfilled since DOS decided not to release hidden winners. Other regions might have had some low underfilling too.
                                      If EU and SA are underfilled is the reason it increase the selectee to 20% and your prediction for all regions will have at least 20% not invited for interview except Africa, then why increase in the first place. It doesn't make sense to me.

                                      Comment


                                      • #20
                                        Originally posted by raevsky View Post
                                        More or less sure.
                                        CEAC website does not include a number of consulates (quite a lot though, including AOS cases), and it also does not include those who did not submit forms to KCC.
                                        My data shows only 50% valid number.
                                        Can you please tell me which consulates arranging AS case interview are not in the system? As far as I checked within 5000 numbers, Only countries with very small winners like BAHRAIN (15 winners) are not in my 5000 number list.
                                        Iran is not in the list too, because Iranian need to go to other countries to have their interview.
                                        AOS is only very small amount. They cannot take up to 35%.

                                        Your estimation is absolutely WRONG!
                                        You had wrong estimation of the previous years holes. How come you can even predict the next year's situation?
                                        I strongly suspect you are just happy to see people give up their application.

                                        Comment

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